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中文题名:

 数字化对区域经济韧性的影响研究    

姓名:

 刘博远    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 chi    

学科代码:

 025400    

学科专业:

 国际商务    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 国际商务硕士    

学位类型:

 专业学位    

学位年度:

 2024    

校区:

 珠海校区培养    

学院:

 经济与工商管理学院    

研究方向:

 区域经济韧性    

第一导师姓名:

 焦豪    

第一导师单位:

 经济与工商管理学院    

提交日期:

 2024-05-26    

答辩日期:

 2024-05-18    

外文题名:

 RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF DIGITALIZATION ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC RESILIENCE    

中文关键词:

 数字化 ; 区域经济韧性 ; 产业结构升级    

外文关键词:

 Digitalization ; Regional economic resilience ; Upgrade of industrial structure    

中文摘要:

2022年12月,习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上再次强调“要大力发展数字经济”,数字经济在《政府工作报告》中的地位也在不断提升。近年来,数字化作为经济发展的新型动力,数字化对经济增长的贡献不断上升,经济增长的主要动力来源于向数字化和数字经济方向转型。21世纪以来,2008年的金融危机、2018年的中美贸易战、2020年的新冠疫情等都给我国及世界经济造成了不小的冲击,但我国经济仍然较为稳定,这说明我国经济具有韧性。而我国各省市的数字化水平差异显著,经济韧性也各不相同。与此同时,当前关于数字化是否影响区域经济韧性以及如何影响区域经济韧性的研究还相对匮乏,仍有进一步讨论的空间。因此,从省级层面考察数字化对区域经济韧性的影响具有深刻的理论价值和现实意义。

本文的研究内容分为以下几个部分,首先本文阐述了数字化和区域经济韧性相关的研究背景和研究意义,其次梳理回顾了相关的国内外文献;再通过现有数据分析了我国的数字化发展现状及区域经济韧性现状;再次,基于相关理论分析了数字化对区域经济韧性的影响机制,选择了产业结构高级化水平这个中介变量来探究具体的影响机制,并提出了相关假设;随后通过对《中国统计年鉴》及国家统计局中我国31省(市、自治区)2004-2018年的相关数据的整理,采用基准回归、稳健性检验、异质性分析等方法实证研究数字化与区域经济韧性之间的关系;最后分别从数字化水平、产业结构升级等角度提出了相关的建议。

基于以上研究内容,本文发现:(1)基准回归结果显示,数字化水平的提高能显著促进各地区经济韧性的提升,并且这一结论在通过替换核心解释变量测算方法、引入工具变量、剔除部分样本值等稳健性检验后依然成立。(2)异质性分析结果显示,在经济发达的地区,数字化对经济韧性促进作用非常显著,而在欠发达地区,经济韧性反而会随着数字化的提升而下降。中西部地区的数字化对经济韧性的影响为正且更为显著,而数字化水平在东部地区对经济韧性反而是负向作用。(3)中介效应检验结果表明,数字化能通过产业结构升级来增强各省市的经济韧性。

最后,本文也从不同的角度给出了相应的建议。首先,在数字化水平方面,建议政府继续加大对数字化技术的支持与投入,推动各行各业向数字化转型。其次,在产业结构升级方面,建议政府引导企业向高端技术和高附加值产业转型升级,促进产业结构升级。最后针对不同的区域,本文也给出了不同的政策建议。东部地区应该进一步深化和拓展数字化应用,加强政企合作;中部地区应进一步完善数字化基础设施,推动产业数字化转型升级;西部地区则需要提高数字化水平,改善公共服务及加强区域合作,从而促进社会均衡发展。

外文摘要:

In December 2022, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the Central Economic Work Conference the imperative to vigorously develop the digital economy, a sentiment echoed and increasingly highlighted in the Government Work Report. In recent years, digitalization has emerged as a novel driving force for economic growth, with its contributions to economic expansion becoming progressively significant. The primary engines of economic growth have shifted towards a rapid transition to digitalization and the digital economy. Significant global events, such as the financial crisis of 2008, the China-US trade war in 2018, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, have posed substantial challenges to both China's and the global economy. Nonetheless, China's economy has displayed remarkable stability, showcasing its resilience. Yet, the level of digitalization and economic resilience varies significantly across different provinces and cities within China. Concurrently, research on how digitalization influences regional economic resilience is relatively sparse, indicating an opportunity for further exploration. Thus, examining the impact of digitalization on regional economic resilience from a provincial perspective carries profound theoretical and practical significance.

This paper unfolds in several sections. Initially, it presents the research background and significance relating to digitalization and regional economic resilience, followed by a review of pertinent domestic and international literature. Subsequently, it analyzes the current status of digital development and economic resilience in China using available data. Further, it delves into the mechanisms through which digitalization affects regional economic resilience, selecting the sophistication level of industrial structure as a mediating variable to explore specific mechanisms and formulating related hypotheses. Then, employing data from the "China Statistical Yearbook" and the National Bureau of Statistics for China's 31 provinces (including municipalities and autonomous regions) from 2004 to 2018, it utilizes methods such as baseline regression, robustness tests, and heterogeneity analysis to empirically study the relationship between digitalization and regional economic resilience. The paper concludes with recommendations from perspectives such as digitalization levels and industrial structure upgrades.

Key findings include: (1) Baseline regression results indicate that digitalization significantly enhances economic resilience across regions, a conclusion that remains valid after conducting robustness tests such as changing core explanatory variables, introducing instrumental variables, and excluding certain sample values. (2) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that in economically developed regions, digitalization significantly boosts economic resilience, while in less developed regions, economic resilience may decrease with the advancement of digitalization; in central and western regions, the impact of digitalization on economic resilience is positive and more pronounced, although in the northeast, while the impact is positive, it is not significant, and in eastern regions, digitalization negatively affects economic resilience. (3) Mediating effect tests show that digitalization can enhance the economic resilience of provinces through industrial structure upgrading.

Finally, the paper offers tailored recommendations. Firstly, regarding digitalization levels, it suggests that the government should continue to amplify support and investment in digital technologies and encourage digital transformation across all sectors. Secondly, concerning industrial structure upgrades, it advises guiding enterprises towards high-tech and high-added-value industries to promote industrial upgrading. Lastly, it provides specific policy recommendations for different regions. Eastern regions should further deepen and expand digital applications and strengthen government-enterprise cooperation; central regions should continue to improve digital infrastructure and promote the digital transformation of industries; and western regions need to enhance digital levels, improve public services, and strengthen regional cooperation to promote balanced social development.

参考文献总数:

 64    

馆藏地:

 总馆B301    

馆藏号:

 硕025400/24021Z    

开放日期:

 2025-05-26    

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