历史周期律现象是指中国历史上的政权经历兴衰治乱、循环往复呈现出的周期性现象。探究历史周期律的根源对现代中国的发展具有重要的意义。本文首先批判了中国古代政治哲学看待王朝更迭的人性论观点，然后引入近代西方以制度论为基础的政治科学，对孟德斯鸠、奥尔森以及达伦•阿西莫格鲁和詹姆斯•罗宾逊等人的相关思想作了比较详细的分析，并由此提出现代中国破解历史周期律的三条途径。

The Historical Periodic phenomenon refers to the cyclical phenomenon that the regime has experienced the rise and fall, order and disorder in Chinese history. To explore the root causes of the Historical Periodic Law is of great significance in the development of modern China. This article first criticizes the views of Theory of Human Nature which Chinese ancient political philosophy holds, and then introduces political science based on institutionalism in the modern western world, analyzing the related thoughts of Montesquieu, Mancur Lloyd Olson, Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson in more detail. And thus puts forward three ways of cracking the Historical Periodic Law in modern china.