有关中国地方政府规模问题是近年来学术界、政府和各种媒体普遍关注的问题。自1978年中国改革开放以来，随着改革的深化和市场经济的发展，中央与地方财政分权的力度不断加大，特别是1994年的分税制改革和1998年之后持续推行的积极财政政策，中国地方政府规模不断扩张。此次“两会”期间，全国政协委员、国务院参事任玉岭提出了《关于党政机关带头发扬艰苦奋斗传统的建议》的提案。据该提案内文披露：从改革开放初期的1978年至2003年25年间，中国的行政管理费已增长87倍。行政管理费占财政总支出的比重在1978年仅为4.71%，到2003年上升至19.03%，比日本的2.38%、英国的4.19%、韩国的5.06%、法国的6.5%、加拿大的7.1%、美国的9.9%分别高出16.65、14.84、 13.97、12.53、11.93和9.13个百分点。近年来中国政府的行政管理费还在大幅提升，平均每年增长23%，远高于同期GDP与财政收入的增长速度。（《中国青年报》2006年3月6日）目前，中国行政管理费支出占GDP的比重达到19.2%，远远超出国际货币基金组织确定的15.6%的上限标准。然而，随着2006年农业税的全面取消与近年来政府社会性支出规模的扩大，继续维持庞大的地方政府规模使中央财政与地方财政都面临巨大压力。因此，从理论上和经验上确定地方政府的适当规模或最优规模，对于有效解决中央和地方的财政困境，保持各项社会政策的可持续性，特别是对于地方政府改革方案的设计，是不可或缺的前提条件。科层组织是现代社会的基本组织要素与组成部分，更是各种体制下的政府的基本组织形式。按照尼斯坎宁的理论，科层组织的核心特征是“官僚机构预算最大化”（Niskanen, 1975）。作为由标准的科层组织构成的政府，必然具有不断扩张规模的内在倾向性，因此，控制政府规模的扩张，是目前世界各国政府面临的一个基本任务。然而，为了能够理性地控制政府规模，必须首先知道什么是政府的最优规模，以及判断政府规模是否处于最优状态的实证性理论和标准。源于此，有关政府规模的问题，受到学术界的广泛关注。本文与现有国内研究文献有几点不同。一是对国外研究文献进行了更为细致的系统性评述，特别是首次介绍了Armey效应、Vedder和Gallaway（1998）、Scully（1995，1996）以及Aly and Strazicich（2000）的工作；二是运用2004年经济普查后各省经过调整的新的分省数据，样本长度延伸至2005年；三是将地方政府样本分为东中西三个区域分别分析了不同区域地方政府财政支出的经济发展效应并估计了不同区域地方政府的平均最优规模。四是运用不同方法对异方差性和同时决定性或内生性问题进行了修正，从而使经验估计结果更稳健和可信。本文在Barro的政府规模的内生决定理论框架下，运用中国省级地方政府规模的面板数据，实证性地估计了中国地方政府的最优规模区间以及分区域地方政府的最优规模区间。结果表明，虽然中国地方政府一般财政支出与政府消费是生产性的，但一般财政支出与政府消费规模过大；政府财政支出与政府消费的边际产出均显现出随其规模扩大而缩小的效应；中国地方政府一般财政支出与政府消费的平均最优规模区间分别为（7.0% 2.1%）和（4.1% 1%）；东部、中部和西部地区政府一般财政支出的平均最优规模区间分别为（11.3% 1.9%）、（11.04% 1.8%）和（7.5% 2.0%）。本文安排如下：第一部分总结了研究背景、意义及研究方法；第二部分回顾与评述了相关研究文献；第三部分通过内生增长模型探讨了政府最优规模的涵义与条件，并获得了经验估计方程和待检验的研究假设；第四部分对中国地方政府一般财政支出与政府消费规模进行了实证性检验与分析；第五部分总结了研究结论并提出相关政策建议。

With the deepening of reform and the development of market economy after China's reform and opening in 1978, the intensity of the central and local fiscal decentralization has continuously increased, especially tax sharing reform of 1994 and active fiscal policy from 1998, the size of the local government in China has continuously increased. During the Two Sessions, the CPPCC committeeman and counselor of the state council has raised the proposal:《 party and government organizations should be fine examples in carrying forward arduous struggle tradition》. According to this proposal, administrative expenses have increased 87 times from 1978 to 2003. The ratio of administrative expense to the total government finance expenditure was 4.71% in 1978 while increased to 19.03% in 2003, respectively higher 16.65, 14.84, 13.97, 12.53, 11.93, and 9.13 in percentage point than that of Japan (2.38%), Britain (4.19%), Korean (5.06%), France (6.5%), Canadian (7.1%), and America (9.9%). The administrative expense of Chinese government is still sharply increased during recent years and the average increasing speed is 23% each year, which is far higher than the speed of GDP and the financial revenue. (《 China Youth Daily 》2006/March/6). Now the ratio of administrative expense to GDP has increased to 19.2%, which is far more than15.6% regulated by International Monetary Fund. However, with the cancellation of Agricultural Tax and the increase of the size of government's social expenditure, the increasing size of the local government in China is great burden to both central finance and local finance. Therefore, determining the appropriate or optimal size from the theory and the experience is an indispensable prerequisite to effectively solving the problem of both central finance and local finance and keeping the sustainability of every social policy, especially the design of the plan for the reform of the local government.Hierarchical Organization is the element and part of the organization of modern society, especially the basic pattern of the government under various systems. According to the theory of Niskanen, the key character of Hierarchical Organization is the maximization of the budget of bureaucracy. The government which is made up of the standard Hierarchical Organization inevitably has the internal tendentiousness of continuously expanding its size. Thus, it is a basic task for every government of the world to control the expanding government size. However, it is necessary to make sure what the optimal size of the government is and the standard to determining whether the size of government is in the optimal state to control the size of government rationally. Consequently, the problem of the size of government has drawn close attention in the realm of academic.The paper is different from the domestic research literatures as the followings. Firstly, the paper makes a more detailed and systemic review about the abroad research literatures, and introduces the “Armey response” ,the work of Vedder&Gallaway（1998）,Scully（1995，1996）and Aly&Strazicich（2000）the first time. Secondly, the paper use panel data sets for the Chinese provinces after the economic census of 2004, and the sample length has prolonged to 2005. Thirdly, the paper divides the sample of the local government into the region of East, Central and West and respectively analyzes the effect of the development of the economy, estimating the average optimal size of the local government of each region. Fourthly, the paper uses different ways to revise the heteroscedasticity, simultaneous determinacy or the problem of endogenous character, making the results more stable and reliable.Using panel data sets for the Chinese provinces between 1978 and 2005, the paper investigates the effects of government expenditures and estimates empirically the optimal size intervals of the local government in China as a whole, and in different regions of China separately, based on the framework of the Barro’s endogenous government size theory. The results show that the general fiscal expenditures and consumptions of the Chinese local government are beyond the optimal size, although they are productive; the marginal outputs of government expenditures and consumptions depend upon the government size; the average optimal size intervals of the Chinese local government expenditure and consumption are (7.0% 2.1%) and (4.1% 1%), and the average optimal size intervals of the government expenditure in the Eastern, Middle and Western regions are (11.3% 1.9%), (11.04% 1.8%), and (7.5% 2.0%), respectively.The structure of the paper is as the following: Chapter 1 introduces the background, mean and the method of the research. Chapter 2 reviews the relative research literatures. Chapter 3 argues the mean and perquisites of the optimal size of the government based on the framework of the endogenous government size theory and get the experience estimated equation and the assumptions remained checked. Chapter 4 analyzes the finance expenditure and the scale of government consumption. Chapter 5 concludes the research results and proposes some suggestions about the policy.