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中文题名:

 城市新旧动能转换与高质量发展的关联与空间效应分析    

姓名:

 杨铮    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 chi    

学科代码:

 083001    

学科专业:

 环境科学    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 工学硕士    

学位类型:

 学术学位    

学位年度:

 2023    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 环境学院    

研究方向:

 区域管理与规划    

第一导师姓名:

 战金艳    

第一导师单位:

 环境学院    

提交日期:

 2023-06-20    

答辩日期:

 2023-06-02    

外文题名:

 Correlation and Spatial Effect Analysis Between the New and Old Kinetic Energy Change and High-quality Development in Cities    

中文关键词:

 高质量发展 ; 新旧动能 ; 城市群 ; 耦合协调度    

外文关键词:

 Urban agglomerations ; Super SBM model ; Coupling coordination degree ; Spatial clustering analysis ; Spatial durbin model ; High-quality development    

中文摘要:

随着经济发展进入新常态,中国正由经济高速增长阶段转向全面高质量发展阶段。中国原先以出口中低端制造业为导向,以粗放的要素投入驱动增长的发展模式开始显现弊端,需要引进新要素和新的生产条件组合来支持经济的持续增长。新旧动能转换是实现中国城市高质量发展的根本保障。开展新旧动能转换与高质量发展的关联关系和空间关系的分析有利于科学认识新旧动能转换对城市高质量发展的驱动机理、作用路径、提升策略,有助于更好地推动新旧动能转换、促进城市高质量发展,实现我国经济由高速增长转向高质量发展转变。

基于上述背景,本研究以全国城市和城市群为主要研究对象,按照“高质量发展评估-新旧动能转换评估-耦合协调评价-影响及空间效应-政策建议”的逻辑主线,引入城市发展效率思想,基于新发展理念和以效率测度城市高质量发展水平的评估方法,构建了城市高质量发展评估矩阵;建立了城市新旧动能转换的综合评估指标体系,对全国城市的新旧动能转换水平进行科学测度;基于上述测算结果,使用耦合协调度和相对发展度模型相结合,揭示城市层面新旧动能转换与高质量发展的耦合发展关系;在两者关联关系的基础上,采用空间计量模型探究新旧动能转换影响高质量发展的定量关系与空间溢出效应;以实地调研、研究结果和城市发展现状为依托,从居民、企业、城市群与全国三种视角提炼切实可行的调控策略及政策建议,为中国切实迈向高质量发展,实现新旧动能转换提供科学参考。主要结论如下:

(1)从城市高质量发展水平来看,2006-2019年全国城市高质量发展水平平均值呈现“波动性上升”的趋势,城市间发展水平的差距不断缩小。从空间分布来看,城市高质量发展水平呈现较强的空间异质性和“四周低,中间高”的格局,空间集聚性波动性增强,“高高聚集”的城市数量也波动性增加。城市群中,珠江三角洲城市群高质量发展水平较为领先,成渝城市群和长江三角洲城市群次之,京津冀城市群平均值在大多数年份处于最低水平。除珠三角城市群外,其余城市群城市间水平差距逐渐缩小。

(2)从城市新旧动能转换水平来看,2006-2019年全国城市新旧动能转换水平平均值呈现“先降低,后升高”的趋势,城市间水平的差距不断增加。北京市、上海市、广州市、深圳市、珠海市的领先地位明显。从空间分布看,呈现“西部低,东部高”的分布,其空间集聚性波动性减弱,“高高聚集”的城市数量有所增加。珠三角城市群和京津冀城市群的水平平均值增加最为明显,高于全国平均涨幅。五个城市群中只有长三角城市群趋于更加均衡的发展。从城市群层面的高质量发展水平出发,珠江三角洲城市群的表现最好,长江中游城市群则表现最差。

(3)从高质量发展与新旧动能转换的耦合发展关系来看,2006-2019年二者关系趋于协调和均衡发展。以2015年为界,二者关系由磨合或拮抗为主导转为以中度协调或高度协调为主导,空间上呈现“中间差,四周好”的格局。二者的相对发展类型也由高质量发展滞后主导转为二者均衡发展主导。2019年有50个城市处于理想发展状态,主要分布于东南沿海地区。

(4)从新旧动能转换对高质量发展的影响和空间效应来看,全国城市水平、珠江三角洲城市群、长江中游城市群中二者存在显著的非线性U型关系;全国城市水平、京津冀城市群中新旧动能转换对高质量发展的空间溢出效应呈现显著的倒U型;全国水平上当地城市高质量发展显著促进邻近城市高质量发展,但在珠三角城市群、京津冀城市群和成渝城市群中则显著抑制。珠三角和长江中游城市群、京津冀城市群和珠三角城市群的新旧动能转换水平对高质量发展的空间效应分别在直接效应、间接效应和总效应上显著。

(5)基于“居民-产业-城市群与全国”三种视角,结合研究结果,制定符合现阶段城市和城市群的高质量发展方案。首先,着眼于居民视角,基于居民新动能使用频率对生活质量的影响机制,提炼出选择性使用新动能,需求侧倒逼供给侧升级的建议。其次,聚焦产业视角,提出加快增长动力转换、完善机制体制转轨、推动经济结构转型的方案。再者,定位城市群和全国城市的区域视角,提出推动城市群内部合作,加强新动能的区域流动,实现全国城市协同发展的建议。

外文摘要:

China’s economy has transitioned from a stage of rapid growth to that of high-quality development, with the new and old kinetic energy change being its fundamental safeguard. Driven by extensive input of factors and oriented by export of low level manufacturing, the traditional economic development model begun to show the drawbacks. To support sustainable growth of the economy, it is necessary to introduce new factors and new combinations of production conditions. The analysis of the correlation and spatial relationship between the new and old kinetic energy change and high-quality development is conducive to a scientific understanding of the driving mechanism, action path and improvement strategy of the former on the latter, which contributes to better promoting the new and old kinetic energy change and high-quality urban development, as well as realizing the transformation of China's economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development.

Based on this, this study takes cities and urban agglomerations as the main research objects, centering on the logical chain of "high-quality development assessment -- assessment of the new and old kinetic energy change -- coupling coordination degree analysis -- relative development degree analysis -- spatial relationship between the two -- policy recommendations" to carry out the following research: The thinking of city development efficiency was introduced, an evaluation index matrix was constructed for the high-quality development of cities from the perspective of efficiency based on the . A comprehensive evaluation index system was established for measuring scientifically the new and old kinetic energy change of cities. Coupling coordination degree and relative development degree model were combined to reveal the coupling development relationship between the new and old kinetic energy change and high-quality development at city level. Based on the correlation between them, the spatial durbin model was applied to explore the quantitative effect and spatial spillover effect of the new and old kinetic energy change on high-quality development. Combining survey questionnaire and research results, feasible regulation strategies and policy suggestions are extracted from the perspectives of residents, enterprises, urban agglomerations and the whole nation, so as to provide scientific reference for China to move towards high-quality development and realize the new and old kinetic energy change. The main conclusions are as follows:

(1) In terms of high-quality development of cities, from 2006 to 2019, the average value of cities showed a trend of fluctuating rising, and the development imbalance between cities increased. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the level demonstrated a strong spatial heterogeneity, presenting a pattern of "low in the periphery and high in the middle". The volatility of spatial agglomeration increased over time, while the number of "high-high cluster" cities increased. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration led in the level of high-quality development, followed by Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, with Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration being the lowest in most years. Except for the Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations, the level gap between other urban agglomerations narrowed gradually.

(2) As for the new and old kinetic energy change, from 2006 to 2019, the average value of cities showed a trend of "first decreasing and then increasing" and differences between cities widened. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhuhai were in obvious lead. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the level presented a distribution of "low in the west and high in the east". Its spatial agglomeration showed a fluctuating decrease over time, and the number of "high-high cluster" cities was increasing. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration experienced the most obvious increase in the past 14 years, higher than that of the national average. Only the cities within the Yangtze River Delta tended to develop more evenly. From the perspective of the urban agglomeration level, the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration had the best performance, while urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River had the worst performance.

(3) In terms of the coupling coordination relationship of high-quality development and the new and old kinetic energy change, from 2006 to 2019, it was gradually moving towards a more coordinated pattern, with a spatial pattern of "poor in the middle, good in the periphery". In 2019, 50 cities were in the ideal state of development, distributing mainly in the southeast coastal regions.

(4) As for the spill over effect of the new and ole kinetic energy change on high-quality development, there were significant nonlinear U-shaped relationship between them in national level, the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. There were inverted U-shaped relationship in the spill over effect of the new and old kinetic energy change on high-quality development in the national level and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. High-quality development of local city promoted that of neighboring cities in national, contrary to the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration. The spatial effects of the new and old kinetic energy change on high-quality development are significant in terms of direct effects, indirect effects, and overall effects in the Pearl River Delta and the urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, and the Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations, respectively.(5) Based on the three perspectives of "residents - industry - urban agglomeration and nation", the study formulates high-quality development plans that meet the social, economic and ecological conditions of the city and urban agglomeration at the present stage. From the perspective of residents and based on the mechanism of the impact of new kinetic energy’s usage frequency on the quality of life, suggestions were extracted on using new kinetic energy selectively and supply side forcing upgrades on demand side. As for industry, suggestions are formulated on accelerating the growth of new kinetic energy, improving the transition of mechanisms and systems, and promoting the reconstruction of economic structure. Furthermore, from the regional perspectives of urban agglomeration and nation, suggestions were put forward to promote cooperation within urban agglomeration, strengthen the flow of new kinetic energy, and realize coordinated development of cities across the nation.

参考文献总数:

 123    

馆藏号:

 硕083001/23056    

开放日期:

 2024-06-19    

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