进入21世纪以来，随着全球人口、资源与环境问题的日益突出，土地利用变化研究已成为国际上全球变化研究的前沿与热点问题。黑河流域地处中国西北内陆干旱地区，水资源短缺是导致其生态系统和土地系统脆弱性的敏感性因子。黑河中游是流域内人口最密集、绿洲面积分布最广、工农业经济最发达的地区，具有十分重要的战略地位。因此，研究黑河中游土地利用变化对生态调水的响应，对区域水土资源的优化配置及调水政策的合理制定具有十分重要的意义。本文在分析黑河生态调水对中游径流和耗水影响的基础上，建立黑河中游土地利用变化模型CLUE-S，并用该模型模拟无调水情景下中游的土地利用空间格局，然后对比无调水情景与生态调水情景下土地利用空间格局的差异，揭示黑河中游土地利用变化对生态调水的响应。得到以下主要结论： 1）黑河生态调水政策的实施使中游正义峡的径流量从减小趋势转变为增加趋势，但是受调水措施和调水时机的影响，各月径流和季节径流对生态调水的响应程度不同；正义峡断面年径流量与莺落峡断面年径流量、中游年降水及时间变量存在显著的线性相关关系，建立的多元线性回归模型确定性系数为0.904，模拟的合格率达到90.9%，能够较好地应用于不考虑调水影响下中游的径流模拟；2000-2007年间，正义峡累计向下游增泄径流量为21.27×108m3，即中游耗水量累计减少了21.27×108m3，年均减少3.04×108m3，占年均实际耗水量的41.4%。2）通过ROC检验，选取的驱动因子在200×200 m尺度下对土地利用类型具有较好的解释能力，各土地利用类型的AUC值分别为：耕地（0.928）、林地（0.864）、草地（0.73）、水域（0.698）、建设用地（0.946）和未利用土地（0.875），满足模型的要求；模型模拟结果的位置Kappa指数、数量Kappa指数、标准Kappa指数和随机Kappa指数均高于0.917，表明模拟的土地利用分布图与实际土地利用分布图从数量和空间位置上均具有较高的一致性，模型能够较好地应用于黑河中游土地利用变化空间格局的模拟。3）黑河中游主要的土地利用类型是未利用土地，其次是耕地和草地。两种情景下，耕地和建设用地面积均呈增加趋势，生态调水加剧了这种变化趋势；林地、草地和未利用土地面积均呈减小趋势，生态调水减缓了林地和草地面积的减小趋势，加剧了未利用土地向其他土地利用类型的转换；水域面积在无调水情景下呈减少趋势，而在生态调水情景下呈增加趋势。黑河实施生态调水后，中游土地利用变化速度加快。4）无调水情景下，土地利用变化的主导类型是耕地、草地和水域；生态调水情景下，土地利用变化的主导类型为耕地、草地和未利用土地。两种情景下，土地利用类型的转换表现出明显的空间差异。5）目前黑河中游土地资源的开发力度并不是很大，土地利用处于发展期，开发程度呈增加趋势，且生态调水的实施加快了其发展速度。

In 21st century，land use change has become fringe area and hot issue in the globe change research at international academic circle with the more and more conflict among global population，resources and environment．Because the Heihe River basin is located at the inner drought area in north-west of China，water shortage was the sensitivity factor which leading to the fragility of ecological system and land system．The midstream of Heihe River basin is the most densely populated，oasis distributed and developed industrial and agricultural economy area．It plays an important role in area economy developing．Therefore，the research on the respone of the land use change on ecological water diversion in the midstream of Heihe River basin is important to optimize configuration of soil and water resources and formulate reasonable water diversion policy in arid areas．This paper analysed the effects of ecological water diversion on runoff and water consumption in the midstream of Heihe River basin．The CLUE-S model was constructed and used to simulate the land use spatial pattern under the scenario without water diversion，and then contrasted the difference of land use spatial pattern between the scenarios of ecological water diversion and without water diversion．The response of land use change on ecological water diversion in the midstream of Heihe River basin was revealed．Main conclusions obtained from this study are listed as follows：1) After the implementation of ecological water diversion policy，the tendency of runoff through Zhengyixia section changed from decrease to increase．However，on account of the influence of water diversion measures and water diversion time，the response of monthly runoff and seasonal runoff on ecological water diversion were different．There has a significant linear correlation among the annual runoff of Zhengyixia and the annual runoff of Yingluoxia，the nanual precipitation in midstream and the time variable．The certainty coefficient of the multiple linear regression model was 0.904，and the qualified rate of simulate was 90.9%．The model can be well applied to simulate the runoff in midstream without the influence of water diversion．From 2000 to 2007，the cumulative runoff through Zhegnyixia to downstream increased by 21.27×108m3，which means the water consumption of midstream reduced 3.04×108m3 each year．2) ROC test showed that the selected driving factors had good explanatory power to land use types in 200×200 m scale and met the requirements of the model．The AUC values for each land use types were：cultivated land (0.928)，forestland (0.864)，pastureland (0.73)，water surface area(0.698)，construction land (0.946) and unused land (0.875)．The Location Kappa index，Quantity Kappa index，Standard Kappa index and Random Kappa index of the simulation result were all greater than 0.917，which indicating that the quantity and spatial location between the simulated and actual land use maps were highly consistent．The CLUE-S model can be applied to simulate the spatial pattern of land use change in the midstream of Heihe River basin．3) The unused land，cultivated land and pastureland were the domain land use types in the midstream of Heihe River basin．Under both scenarios，cultivated land and construction land area showed a trend of increasing，and the trend was exacerbated by the ecological water diversion．Forestland，pastureland and unused land showed a trend of decreasing，and the change tendency of forestland and pastureland was slowed down after the implementation of water diversion，while the convert tendency from unused land to other land use types was accelerated．The water surface area was decreased under the scenario without water diversion，while under ecological water diversion scenario it showed a trend of increase．After the implementation of water diversion，the land use change speed in the midstream of Heihe River basin was accelerate．4) Under the scenario without water diversion，the main land use change types were cultivated land，pastureland and water surface area．Under ecological water diversion scenario，the main land use change types were cultivated land，pastureland and unused land．The conversion of land use types showed obvious space difference under two scenarios．5) Currently the development of land resources in the midstream of Heihe River basin is not great．Land use is in development stage and the development degree shows a trend of increasing，and the tendency was speeding up after the implementation of water diversion．