国民经济的快速发展和大规模基础设施建设需求，促进了电力、钢铁，以及有色金属等行业的长足发展。但大量化石能源和矿物资源的消耗，造成各种大气污染物排放并进入环境，从而对生态环境与公众健康造成危害。锑是一种有毒有害重金属元素，可赋存于煤炭、矿石，或者城市垃圾中，在煤炭燃烧或金属矿物的烧结和熔炼过程释放出来，并伴随烟气进入大气中，对公众健康和生态环境造成危害。 本研究通过“自下而上”的排放因子法，结合不同排放源的排放因子和各部门行业生产活动水平，建立了1980~2009年我国包括煤炭燃烧、有色金属冶炼、钢铁冶炼、垃圾焚烧、刹车片磨损等典型人为排放源大气锑排放清单；根据不同源的排放强度划分为点源和面源，对清单进行30′×30′网格化，采用自助法和蒙特卡罗模拟法对排放清单的不确定性进行量化分析；进而，结合我国中长期发展规划，估算了未来40年我国大气锑排放污染发展趋势；并结合大气锑排放历史现状及时空分布特征，提出我国大气锑排放污染的综合控制对策建议。主要研究结论如下： 2009年中国人为源导致的大气锑排放总量约为818吨，其中排放贡献较大的部门分别为燃煤源（61.8%）、有色金属冶炼排放源（26.7%）和生活垃圾焚烧源（7.4%）。锑排放量最大的省区分别为贵州（77吨）、湖南（70吨）、河南（58吨）、山东（49吨）、广西（42吨）等省份。 1980~2009年间，中国燃煤导致的大气锑排放呈现稳定的增长趋势，从1980年的114吨增加至2009年的约505吨，年均增长率为5.3%。在2009年全国燃煤源锑排放总量中，工业部门燃煤锑排放量最大，高达300吨，占59.3%；其次是火力发电和其它部门燃煤排锑，所占比例分别为20.9%和19.6%；生活消费燃煤锑排放量很低，仅占0.2%。中国燃煤锑排放地区分布很不均衡，排放量较大的省区包括贵州、山东、广西、湖南、四川等省份。 1980~2009年中国非燃煤导致的大气锑排放呈现快速的增长趋势，从1980年的32吨增长至2009年的313吨，年均增长率约为8.2%。有色金属冶炼部门导致的大气锑排放量占整个非燃煤源锑排放的绝大部分，2009年有色金属冶炼部门锑排放量高达219吨，占69.9%，其次是城市垃圾焚烧排锑，排放量为61吨，占19.4%，垃圾焚烧已经成为大气锑排放的主要来源之一。 将2009年我国大气锑排放量分配到30′×30′的网格内，结果表明，大气锑排放分布情况与人类活动密切相关。锑排放量较高的地区主要分布在人口密集、工业发达的西南部、中东部和沿海地区。通过蒙特卡罗模拟对各类人为源的不确定性进行传递，得出总的中国大气锑排放结果的不确定性范围是-11%~40%。 2010~2050年我国处于能源体系的转型期。随着我国能源中长期发展战略的实施，到2020年、2030年、2040年和2050年，我国人为源导致的锑排放总量将分别达到850~1230吨、799~1296吨、677~1250吨和461~1059吨。依据目前我国各部门大气锑排放状况，建议重点控制燃煤源和有色金属冶炼部门的锑排放，同时应针对生活垃圾焚烧大气锑排放量的增加采取相应的控制对策。

With the rapid economic increase and large-scale infrastructure demand, the industries like electric power generation, iron and steel smelting, and non-ferrous metals smelting have experienced rapid development in China. However, the large consumption of fossil energy and mineral resources has aroused lots of atmospheric pollutants emissions into the environment, leading to dangerous risks on ecosystem and human health. Antimony occurs in coal, ore, or municipal solid waste, it can be released during coal combustion and metal ores sintering or smelting, and enter into atmospheric with flue gas, which will be hazardous to public health and ecological environment. On the basis of emission factors and energy consumption data of different source categories, the atmospheric emission inventories of Sb during the period of 1980~2009 from coal combustion, non-ferrous metal smelting, iron and steel smelting, municipal waste incineration, and brake wear are estimated. Antimony estimates for large point sources and area sources are distributed within latitude/longitude-based grids with a resolution of 30′×30′, and the uncertainties in the bottom-up inventories are quantified by Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, Sb emissions in the future 40 years are projected based on the long-term development trend in China. In addition, in the light of the current features of atmospheric Sb emissions, primary comprehensive control strategies of Sb emissions are proposed. The main conclusions are shown as follows: The national total emissions of antimony are estimated at about 818 metric tons (t) in 2009, with the largest contribution from coal combustion at 61.8% of the total, followed by 26.7% from nonferrous metals smelting and 7.4% from municipal waste incineration. Emissions are heaviest in Guizhou (77 t), Hunan (70 t), Henan (58 t), Shandong (49 t), and Guangxi (42 t). The total Sb emissions released from coal combustion in China have increased from 114 t in 1980 to 505 t in 2009, at an annually average growth rate of 5.3%. In 2009, the Sb emissions from coal combustion are largely emitted by industrial sector, contributing 59.3%, while 20.9% and 19.6% of Sb are emitted from thermal power generation and other sectors, respectively. Then the residential sector contributed only 0.2% of total Sb emissions released from coal combustion. At provincial level, the distribution of Sb emissions shows significant variation, and the largest emissions from coal combustion are demonstrated to be Guizhou, Shandong, Guangxi, Hunan, and Sichuan province. The total Sb emissions released from non-coal combustion in China have increased from 32 t in 1980 to 313 t in 2009, at an annually average growth rate of 8.2%. In non-coal combustion sectors, nonferrous metal smelting is the biggest single category, and the Sb emissions are estimated 219 t which contributing to 69.9% of the total emission from non-coal combustion. The atmospheric Sb emissions from municipal waste incineration are 61 t in 2009, accountring for about 19.4%. Thus, municipal waste incineration also becomes a very important source of Sb emissions in China. Furthermore, Sb emissions in 2009 are spatially distributed within the grid system of 30′×30′, and the distribution is unevenly due to human activities. Antimony emissions are mainly concentrated in highly populated and industrialized southwestern China, the east central region, and coastal provinces in China. The uncertainties in our bottom-up inventory are quantified as -11% to 40% by Monte Carlo simulation. In the period from 2010 to 2050, Chinese energy system is exposed to transition period. Since the introduction of our country’s medium and long term energy development strategy, the Sb emissions will propobly reach at 850~1230 t in 2020, 799~1296 t in 2030, 677~1250 t in 2040, and 461~1059 t in 2050, respectively. In view of the gradually growth trend of Sb emissions during the past years, comprehensive control policies should be promulgated and implemented to further restrain Sb discharge from fuels combustion and nonferrous metals smelting processes. Further, as Sb emissions from municipal waste incineration increasing rapidly, the flue gases need to be cleaned effectively.