十八大以来，我国越来越重视生态环境质量与经济发展间的关系，高质量与可持续的发展理念逐渐深入人心。为改善全国生态环境质量，实现经济绿色发展，党中央建立了生态环境保护督察制度监督地方政府进行环境保护工作。京津冀地区作为我国大气污染重灾区，自2016年起中央已多次派遣督查组进驻此地。由于我国目前还缺少一套完整的督察效果评价体系，因此难以判断督察组的进驻对当地大气质量产生多大影响。故本文利用回归预测法与指数平滑预测法构建了京津冀地区大气质量指数预测模型，计算出气象因素与人为因素对大气质量产生的影响，更加合理的评价中央生态环境保护督察工作对京津冀地区大气质量改善带来的效果。得到以下结论：（1）京津冀地区生态环境保护督察工作效果较好，大部分城市都在督察进驻的1年内实现了排污量显著下降与大气质量的明显好转。（2）河北省为应对中央环境督察组的检查采取了“一刀切”行为，即在环境督察组进驻前后实施大范围的临时性停工停产，以求在短时间内提升大气质量。（3）自2016年环境保护督察工作开展以来，京津冀地区大气质量稳步提升。PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO等五种大气主要污染物浓度明显下降，但臭氧浓度逐年提升。（4）京津冀地区气象条件对大气质量影响较大，在评价环境保护工作的实际效果时一定要结合气象因素进行分析，否则将难以获得正确结论。

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China has paid more and more attention to the relationship between the quality of the ecological environment and economic development, and the concept of high quality and sustainable development has gradually gained popularity. In order to improve the quality of the national ecological environment and achieve green economic development, the Party Central Committee established an ecological environmental protection inspection system to supervise local governments in environmental protection work. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, as the hardest hit by air pollution in China, has sent inspection teams to the region on many occasions since 2016. Since China currently lacks a complete system for evaluating the effectiveness of inspections, it is difficult to determine how much the impact of the presence of the inspection team has on the local air quality. Therefore, this paper uses regression prediction method and index smoothing prediction method to construct the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region air quality index prediction model, calculates the impact of meteorological factors and human factors on air quality, and more reasonably evaluates the central ecological environmental protection inspection work on Beijing The effect of improved air quality in the Hebei region. The following conclusions were obtained:

(1) The eco-environmental protection inspection work in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has achieved good results. Most cities have achieved a significant reduction in pollutant discharge and a significant improvement in air quality within 1 year of the inspector ’s presence.

(2) Hebei Province has adopted a "one size fits all" behavior in response to the inspection by the Central Environmental Supervision Group, that is, a large-scale temporary shutdown and suspension of production before and after the environmental inspection team is stationed, in order to improve air quality in a short time.

(3) Since the implementation of environmental protection inspections in 2016, the air quality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has steadily improved. The concentrations of the five major atmospheric pollutants such as PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO decreased significantly, but the ozone concentration increased year by year.

(4) The meteorological conditions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have a great influence on atmospheric quality. When evaluating the actual effects of environmental protection, it is necessary to analyze the meteorological factors, otherwise it will be difficult to obtain correct conclusions.