区域整体的防灾减灾对策的科学制定，依赖于对灾害引起的区域经济损失的准确评估。随着社会经济融合度的增加，灾害对经济系统结构的破坏，进而导致的产业关联经济损失逐步增大，产业部门的恢复重建过程中如何将有限的重建资金和劳动力合理分配给不同的经济部门，是政府管理者制定灾后重建政策的难题。重大自然灾害的恢复重建时间长短与灾害造成的间接经济损失大小直接相关，因而影响灾害造成的总损失，因此准确评估灾害的间接经济损失是政府灾后制定恢复重建和减灾政策的重要内容。投入产出模型是灾害经济影响评估应用最为广泛的模型，本文分别应用传统投入产出（IO）模型和区域投入产出模型（ARIO）对1998年洪涝灾害对湖南省经济冲击后，造成的间接经济损失进行了评估模拟，并将结果进行了对比。结果表明，区域投入产出模型的适用性较好，评估更准确，更具有灵活性和可调节性。本文进而基于区域投入产出模型，结合中国经济状况和救灾政策，以月为时间间隔，模拟了湖南省经济在洪涝灾害后的恢复情况，并用建筑业灾后恢复数据进行了比较验证。通过ARIO模型模拟得到当年湖南省的间接经济损失为178.46亿元，占直接经济损失的39%，部门生产能力恢复时间大约需要3-5年（3年完成重建量的90%以上）。本文对传统投入产出模型和区域投入产出模型的优缺点进行分析之后，对区域投入产出模型参数的敏感性和应用的拓展性两方面进行了研究。研究了区域投入产出模型在社会经济结构变动、未来风险评估等方面的应用，得到洪涝灾害的直接与间接经济损失的非线性关系曲线，为该模型的拓展性提供了更广阔平台。模型拓展性研究的主要结论如下：第一、灾害造成相同的直接经济损失，在不同经济结构下造成的间接经济损失相差13%左右，而恢复期相差不明显，因此使用接近灾害发生年的投入产出数据对结果影响有限，适用于应急状态下的粗略评估；第二、在考虑经济结构逐年调整情况下，1998年湖南省洪涝灾害总重建时间缩短了12-16%；第三、洪涝灾害直接经济损失和间接经济损失的非线性关系，当直接经济损失超过1000亿元时，间接经济损失值达到直接经济损失的50%，而当直接经济损失约等于3000亿元时，间接经济损失等于直接经济损失。因此随着洪涝灾害直接经济损失增加的同时，更要关注间接经济损失的增加，而间接经济的“流量”损失可以通过重建政策的调整而减小。本文通过研究发现，不同部门和不同灾后恢复策略模拟结果有利于制定减灾战略、优化救灾和重建资源的分配，最大限度地减少灾害对经济系统的冲击。本文对洪涝灾害的应急管理的行政和金融策略进行分析，表明灾后风险融资等非工程性措施是工程措施的重要补充，而且随着各产业部门之间以及区域内外产业之间的联系越来越紧密，金融保险等减轻灾害风险策略将发挥越来越重要的作用。而中国灾害管理的“举国体制”适应灾后初期的恢复重建需要，能够较大程度地减轻灾害造成区域总损失。同时从灾后长期经济恢复考虑，将“举国体制”与高效的灾害管理金融体系的市场手段结合起来，取得最优效果。本文以湖南省洪涝灾害为例，使用区域投入产出模型对洪涝灾害造成的区域间接经济损失进行评估，并对模型的应用拓展性进行了有益探索，研究结果表明灾后通过积极的财政融资政策，并结合加速恢复重建政策能够极大减轻灾害造成的间接经济损失。

Scientifically formulating the overall regional Disaster Prevention and Reduction depends on the accurate assessment of the regional economic losses caused by disasters. The economic losses in relevant industries are increasing gradually as the degree of socioeconomic confluence. The serious questions about how to formulate the policy on promotion of reconstruction was proposed while the government estimates the damage to economic structure and distributes the capital and labor into sectors of economy. There is a significant relationship between the indirect economic loss and the duration of reconstruction. Thus, the accuracy of indirect economic loss estimate is vital to formulate reconstruction policy.Input-output model is well known to assess the influence relationship between economy and disaster. This study estimated the indirect economic losses caused by the flood disaster in 1998 in Hunan province. Analyzed of the data, the result indicated regional input-output model had better qualities in terms of applicability accuracy, flexibility and adjustability. Based on the regional input-output model this study simulated the situation of flood disaster post-reconstruction in interval of month. In the background of current economic situation and relief policy it validated this model in comparison with the data of post-disaster reconstruction in construction industry. The ARIO model demonstrated the indirect economic loss was 17.846 billion Yuan, accounting for 39% of the direct economic losses of Hunan province in 1998. It would take 3-5 years for relevant sectors to recovery the capacity (over 90% reconstruction would be finished within 3 years). This study firstly analyzed the pro and con of traditional input-output model and regional input-output model, and then explored the parameter susceptibility and application reliability of the regional input-output model. In order to provide the accuracy statistics of indirect economic losses this study proposed to get the corresponding changes of social economic structure through regional input-output model. It in addition presented the non-linear curve relationship between the direct and indirect economic losses that caused by flood disaster for further assessment in the future. The results from the model showed that 1) there is about 13% fluctuation of indirect economic loss in different economic structure, with the same direct economic loss; there is no significant difference during the reconstruction period. Therefore it is limited, but only suitable for the emergency, to use the input-output data which showed relevant disaster in the former years; 2) the time of the reconstruction resulted from the 1998 Hunan flood disaster is reduced by 12-16% in the situation that considered the adjustment of the economic structure year by year; 3) there is the non-linear curve relationship between direct and indirect economic losses caused by flood disaster. When direct economic losses is more than 100 billion Yuan, indirect economic loss would be its 50%; and when direct economic losses is up to 300 billion Yuan, indirect economic loss would be the same as direct economic losses. Thus, more atlention to indirect economic loss should be paid as the direct economic loss increasing, while the reducing the “flow” loss of economic can be realized through the adjustment of reconstrucation policy. This study found different departments and different post-disaster simulation strategies are benefit to formulate mitigation strategy, optimize the disaster relief and distribution of reconstraction, and minimize the disaster impact on the economic system. Through the analysis about administrative and financial policies of flood emergency management ,it indicated that post-disaster financing and other non-engineering measures were an important supplementary for the engineering practice. Furthermore, financial insurance and other mitigation strategies for disaster risk play a more and more important role with the closer relationship among different sectorss that inside and outside of the regions. China’s“Nation-sponsored System”as post-disaster reconstruction policies can reduces the total losses caused by disaster especially during the incipient stage. It would take the best effect to establish the high-efficient disaster management of the financial system which can integrate the administrative and market-based measures from the future perspective.This study investigated the regional input-output model to evaluate the indirect economic loss of and explored the expansibility of the model in 1998 in Hunan province. The results indicated 1) the promising relationship between accuracy of indirect economic loss assessment and disaster; 2) combining the positive financing policy and reconstruction policy can reduce the indirect economic loss. This study contributed to Geologic Disaster research field.