中文题名: | 货币政策、资产价格与经济增长——基于中国1999年~2018年月度数据的分析 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | 中文 |
学科代码: | 020301K |
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学生类型: | 学士 |
学位: | 经济学学士 |
学位年度: | 2019 |
学校: | 北京师范大学 |
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提交日期: | 2019-05-25 |
答辩日期: | 2019-05-23 |
外文题名: | Monetary Policy, Asset Price and Economic Growth: an Analysis Based on China’s Monthly Data from 1999 to 2018 |
中文关键词: | |
中文摘要: |
本文使用我国1999年~2018年的宏观月度数据,基于传导机制分析,采取二元格兰杰因果检验、基于多元VAR模型的脉冲响应函数与方差分解等方法,从经济增长角度研究货币政策是否应当盯住资产价格。选取股票与房产为资产的代理变量,同时考虑数量型与价格型货币政策,实证结果表明:货币政策、资产价格与经济增长三者相互关联,资产价格在实体经济中有着重要影响,但因货币政策与资产价格、资产价格与实体经济传导机制均受阻,货币政策干预资产价格为时尚早。本文也发现,长期来看,“价格调控”比“数量调控”更有效;相比于股价,房价可以更好地体现货币政策与经济增长的变动。本文最后给出了相应的政策建议。
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外文摘要: |
Utilizing China’s monthly data from 1999 to 2018 and analyzing theoretically, this paper investigates whether asset price should be included in the framework of monetary policy from the perspective of economic growth. The stock and real estate are selected as the proxy variables of asset, and both quantitative and price-based monetary policies are considered. With the help of Granger Causality test as well as the pulse corresponding function and variance decomposition method under multivariate VAR model, the empirical results show that monetary policy, asset price and economic growth are related to each other. Although asset prices have an important influence on the economy, the transit mechanisms from monetary policy to asset price and further to the real economy are inefficient, so it is too early for monetary policy to intervene in asset prices. This paper also finds that in the long run, “price regulation” is more effective than “quantity regulation”; compared with stock prices, house prices can reflect fluctuations in monetary policy and economic growth better. Corresponding policy suggestions are given at the end of this article.
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参考文献总数: | 33 |
馆藏号: | 本020301K/19003 |
开放日期: | 2020-07-09 |