众多心理学研究表明人在进行广泛决策后人们的决策质量会下降，这种现象被称为决策疲劳。此时决策将从系统2型思考（缓慢艰难的脑力推理过程）转换为系统1型思考（简单迅速地直觉认知过程）。然而，关于决策疲劳是否影响资本市场环境中专业人士行为的证据是非常有限的。证券分析师是资本市场的重要参与者，相对于普通投资者来说掌握比较多的专业知识，能够更加准确的对上市公司进行估值，同时能够做出相对更加精确的盈利预测。投资者普遍认为分析师发布的盈利预测报告越多，表明分析师越有经验，从而能够做出更加精确的盈利的预测，而忽视了决策疲劳对于证券分析师盈利预测的影响。本文借鉴国外一些学者的研究方法，探究了卖方分析师的决策疲劳与其盈利预测精度的关联性。

本文利用2014-2021年A股市场公司的证券分析师的盈利预测数据，采用多维固定效应线性回归模型对上述问题进行了研究，发现（1）分析师受到决策疲劳的影响越大，其盈利预测精度越低。（2）考虑了利益冲突的影响后，决策疲劳对于证券分析师盈利预测的影响越大。（3）在考虑了信息披露质量的影响后，利益冲突会加剧决策疲劳的影响，并进一步增加分析师的盈利预测偏差。本文结果表明，分析师在一个月内随着发布盈利预测报告数量的增多，越容易出现决策疲劳，从而会加剧启发式认知偏差的影响，盈利预测准确度降低。在考虑了利益冲突和不同信息披露质量等理性因素的影响下，我们发现决策疲劳对于分析师盈利预测偏差的影响会加剧。

本文基于分析师个体视角研究了心理因素如何对分析师预测造成影响，并拓展研究了在加入了利益冲突和信息披露质量等理性因素后决策疲劳如何对分析师盈利预测准确度造成影响。从决策疲劳的视角对分析师盈利预测偏差进行探索，并考察心理因素同利益冲突因素、信息不对称因素的叠加效应，更加全面的揭示了分析师盈利预测偏差的心理机制。为心理学关于决策疲劳对于分析师群体的负面影响的研究，提供了一个独特的证据支持。

Numerous psychological studies have shown that the quality of people's decision-making deteriorates after making extensive decisions, a phenomenon known as decision fatigue. Decision making shifts from System 2 thinking (a slow, hard mental reasoning process) to System 1 thinking (a simple, quick, intuitive process). However, evidence on whether decision fatigue affects professional behavior in capital market environments is very limited. Equity analysts who are important participants in the financial market, have more professional knowledge than ordinary investors, so they can evaluate listed companies more accurately and make more accurate profit forecasts. Investors generally believe that the more earnings forecast reports issued by analysts, the more experienced analysts are, so that they can make more accurate earnings forecast, while ignoring the impact of decision fatigue on analysts' earnings forecast. This paper draws on the research methods of some foreign scholars to explore the correlation between the decision fatigue of sell-side analysts and the accuracy of earnings forecast.

In this paper, the earnings forecast data of analysts of A-share market companies from 2014 to 2021 is used to study the above problems by using multidimensional fixed effect linear regression model. It is found that (1) the more affected analysts are by decision fatigue, the lower the accuracy of their earnings forecast. (2) Considering the impact of conflict of interest, the greater the impact of decision fatigue on analysts' earnings forecast. (3) After considering the impact of the quality of information disclosure, conflict of interest will exacerbate the impact of decision fatigue and further increase the earnings forecast deviation of analysts. The results of this paper show that with the increase of the number of earnings forecast reports issued by analysts in a month, the more likely it is to appear decision fatigue, which will aggravate the influence of heuristic cognitive bias and reduce the accuracy of earnings forecast. Considering the influence of rational factors such as conflict of interest and quality of different information disclosure, we find that the influence of decision fatigue on the deviation of analysts' earnings forecast will be aggravated.

From the level of individual behavior, this paper explores the influence of psychological factors on the deviation of individual earnings forecast. This paper explores the deviation of analysts' earnings forecast from the perspective of bounded rationality, and examines the superimposed effect of psychological factors, conflict of interest factors and information asymmetry factors, so as to reveal the psychological mechanism of the deviation of analysts' earnings forecast more comprehensively. It provides a unique evidence support for psychological research on the negative impact of decision fatigue on analyst groups.