为探究教育期望偏差对青少年学业表现的影响，本文将借助PSM倾向得分匹配模型和结构方程模型，利用stata、spss、amos等软件，基于中国教育追踪调查(CEPS)的问卷，选用2013-2014年的基线，对7年级的学生的调查结果，探究教育期望偏差对青少年学业表现的影响机制。通过研究，提出对青少年学业表现的更有针对性的建议，使得父母更好改变自己的教育行为、教育期望，来使得孩子有更好的发展。首先，利用描述性统计和样本均值t检验进行初步分析，了解数据。其次根据教育期望偏差的正负，分为高期望组、低期望组，采用倾向得分匹配模型，在两组中进行一一对应的近邻匹配，来得到平均处理效应。最后由于问卷调查中多个问题具有相关关系和测量误差，故先对其进行探索性因子分析，达到减少题目个数，初步得到因子结构。在此基础上，通过搭建结构方程模型，可以得出教育期望偏差对青少年学业表现影响的主要路径分析，同时研究中介效应的存在与否。结果获得的教育期望偏差不仅直接影响了青少年学业表现，同时学术型辅导班和学习热情在也起到了一定的中介作用。

In order to explore the influence of educational expectation deviation on adolescent academic performance, this paper will use PSM model and structural equation model, use stata, SPSS, Amos and other software, select the baseline of 2013-2014 based on the questionnaire of China Education Tracking Survey (CEPS), and survey results of grade 7 students. Explore the influence mechanism of educational expectation deviation on adolescent academic performance. Through research, more targeted suggestions are put forward for teenagers' academic performance, so that parents can better change their educational behavior and expectations, so that children can have better development. First, descriptive statistics and sample mean T-test were used for preliminary analysis to understand the data. Secondly, according to the positive and negative of educational expectation deviation, it is divided into high expectation group and low expectation group. The propensity score matching model is adopted to carry out one-to-one neighbor matching in the two groups to obtain the average processing effect. Finally, due to the correlation and measurement error of many questions in the questionnaire survey, exploratory factor analysis was carried out to reduce the number of questions and get the factor structure initially. On this basis, through building structural equation model, we can get the main path analysis of the impact of educational expectation deviation on adolescent academic performance, and study the existence of the mediation effect. Results The deviation of educational expectation not only directly affected the academic performance of adolescents, but also played a mediating role in academic tutoring classes and learning enthusiasm.