高等教育入学机会的省际不平等及其发展趋势是高等教育发展的重要问题。官方认为已经“没有地域不公平”。其依据是最低录取率（68%）和全国录取率（70%多）的差异很小。因为高考复读率和高中普及率存在着较大的省际差异，所以录取率不能准确地反映高等教育入学机会。因此，本研究使用了当年入学率来衡量高等教育入学机会，即录取人数与18周岁人口数之比。本研使用了极差率、变异系数和基尼系数测量高等教育入学机会的省际不平等。极差率和变异系数的分析发现：高等教育层次越高，入学机会的省际不平等程度越大，主要因为北京、天津和上海三个直辖市占有绝对优势；基尼系数的分析则发现，高等教育层次越高，省际不平等程度越小。因为基尼系数考虑了人口加权，所以更具有准确性。通过不平等来源的分解发现，专科和普通本科是高等教育入学机会省际不平等的主要来源，而211大学和985大学的贡献率不到4%。近年来，对优质高等教育的入学机会省际不平等的争议日益高涨。基尼系数分析发现大部分省份和大学的入学机会分配存在严重的省际不平等。因此，消除高等教育入学机会省际不平等是中央政府、每个省份和每个大学的共同责任。在分析高等教育入学机会不平等基础上，本研究从全国层面、省级层面和大学层面分析了高等教育入学机会分配的决定因素，具体包括录取人数决定因素模型和当年入学率决定因素模型。录取人数的决定因素模型分析发现：18周岁人口规模和招生人数是全国层面、省级层面和大学层面分配录取人数的重要决定因素。在全国层面，经济发展水平对整体高等教育和不同层次高等教育入学机会的分配并不存在积极的显著影响。但是，在省级层面和大学层面，经济发展水平存在着显著有限的正向或负向的作用。当年入学率的决定因素模型分析发现：在全国层面，经济发展水平较高的省份，当年入学率相对较高；在省级层面和大学层面，经济发展水平对当年入学率的影响存在着省份之间和大学之间存在着方向性的差异。在全国层面，当年入学率较高的省份，当年入学率也相对越高；但是，在省级层面和大学层面，当年入学率对高等教入学机会分配的作用则存在着一定的差异。在全国层面、省级层面和大学侧面，教师投入对入学机会的分配有正向作用，而固定资产投入的作用则相反。同时，在不同层面和不同层次，高等教育入学机会的分配存在着地域倾向性的差异。总而言之，高等教育入学机会省际不平等客观存在。要实现高等教育入学机会省际平等，首先要选择一个恰当的指标来衡量高等教育入学机会；其次，要全面的分析高等教育入学机会的省际不平等；最后，消除高等教育入学机会省际不平等需要各级政府和各个大学共同努力。

Inter-provincial inequality in access to higher education and its trends have been concerned by the public and the media since many years ago. But there were few researches that can describe the inter-provincial inequality and its trends. The minister of Ministry of Education said that there was no inter-provincial inequality in access to higher education and the inequality had been decreasing since higher education expansion. This argument was based on that the difference between lowest admission rate (68%) and the average admission rate (a little higher than 70%) was very small. Considering the defects of the admission rate, this research designed enrolment rate that was equal to the ratio of the number of enrolment to the number of 18-year-old population. And then range ratio, covariance of variation (CV), and GINI coefficient were used to measure the inter-provincial unequal access to higher education. According to range ratios and CVs, the more selective the higher education was, the much higher the inter-provincial inequality would be. That is because the enrolment rate of Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai was much higher than that of other provinces. GINI coefficients analysis found that the more selective the higher education, the much lower the inter-provincial inequality. The sources of the inequality were identified. The inequality in access to 3-year-college and general universities was the major sources. Oppositely, the inequality in access to the universities of 211 Project and 985 Project just contributed less than 4% of the total inequality. However, with the higher education expansion, the quality has been one of the key problems in the development of higher education. And the inter-provincial inequality in access to higher quality university was much more focused. The GINI coefficient analysis found that the GINI coefficient of each province and each university was usually much higher than the average inequality. This illustrated that the responsibility of improving inter-provincial equality should be shouldered not only by central government but also by local governments and the universities. As long as the inter-provincial inequality in access to higher education existed, the public and the media would ask what the determinants of the inter-provincial inequality were or which provinces achieved more opportunities to higher education. This research analyzed the determinants of the inter-provincial inequality at national level, provincial level and university level. The enrolment of determinants models found that 18-year-old population and the number of recruitments had significantly positive effects on the number of enrolment while there was no significant effect and even negative effect of economic development on the number of enrolment. Therefore, one conclusion was made that the allocation of the opportunities to higher education considered the population scale and the admission capacity of higher education as two major determinants of the number of enrolment. Based on the enrolment rate of determinants models, the main findings are: (1) the province with a higher per capita GDP would have a higher enrolment rate of higher education; (2) the province with a higher admission rate would have a higher enrolment rate of higher education, but 3-year-college education; (3) teacher input of high school usually had positive effects on the enrolment rate and capital facility input usually had negative effects. Moreover, the region classification had different effects when the models were analyzed at different levels. In a word, the benefit obtained from higher education, especially higher quality universities, made it very important for individuals to have inter-provincial equal access to higher education. In order to achieve the inter-provincial equality, the central government should design a good indicator to measure the access to higher education, then a comprehensive analysis of inter-provincial inequality should be made, and finally the elimination of inter-provincial inequality needs the involvement and responsibility of central government, local governments and universities.