青藏高原作为我国典型的干旱半干旱区，荒漠化地域分布广阔，土壤风蚀活动强烈，是我国土壤侵蚀最严重的区域之一。开展青藏高原土壤风蚀研究，对于减轻土壤风蚀危害，保障青藏高原生态屏障作用具有重要的理论价值和实用价值。目前对于未来变暖情景下青藏高原土壤风蚀研究较为缺乏。本文考虑到气候因子是未来风蚀活动的主导因子，春季又是青藏高原大风频发的季节，使用修正风蚀方程（RWEQ）中风蚀气候侵蚀力模型计算未来春季风蚀气候侵蚀力变化，预估未来风蚀变化是较为有效的科学办法。为使结果精确，本文中使用的模式资料是动力降尺度后气候模式资料，利用分位数调整法对其输出结果加以偏差订正，再将订正后的数据输入RWEQ方程中风蚀气候侵蚀力模型获得未来时期风因子、土壤蒸散因子两个分因子以及风蚀气候侵蚀力的时空变化特征。主要结果如下：
（1）分位数调整法订正后的未来变暖情景下的模式数据能够较好的再现风速、气温和降水的空间分布特征，保留了模拟数据的变化趋势，并调整了这些气象要素数据的平均值和极端值的阈值范围。未来时期风速高值区位于青藏高原腹地羌塘高原，温度高值区位于藏东南部，降水高值区位于喜马拉雅山脉南部、青藏高原东部、藏南雅鲁藏布江大拐弯区域。订正后的数据较为明显的纠正了气候模式对青藏高原区域整体预估的冷偏差和湿偏差。
（2）历史时期（1995-2014年）喜马拉雅山西部、柴达木盆地和天山山脉北部为风蚀气候侵蚀力高值区。与历史时期相比，在未来变暖情景下（2041-2060年）风蚀气候侵蚀力在冈底斯山区域和柴达木盆地西侧增强，说明在这两个区域未来风蚀活动可能增强，在高原中部、帕米尔高原西北部和天山山脉北部部分地区，相比历史时期有所减小，说明这些区域的风蚀活动在未来变暖情景下有可能减弱。
 

As a typical arid and semi-arid region in China, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a wide geographical distribution of desertification and strong soil wind erosion activities, which is one of the most serious areas of soil erosion in China. Soil wind erosion research on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is of great theoretical and practical value in mitigating soil wind erosion hazards and safeguarding the ecological barrier role of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. There is a lack of research on soil wind erosion on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under future warming scenarios. In this paper, considering that climate factor is the dominant factor of future wind erosion activity, and spring is the season of frequent wind on the Tibetan Plateau, it is a more effective scientific approach to calculate the future wind erosion climate erosion force change in spring using the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) to predict the future wind erosion change. In order to make the results accurate, the model data used in this paper are the post-power downscaling climate model data, and the output results are revised with deviations using the quantile- quantile adjustment method, and then the revised data are input into the wind erosion climate erosion force model in the RWEQ equation to obtain two sub-factors of wind factor, soil evapotranspiration factor, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of wind erosion climate erosion force in the future period. The main results are as follows:
(1) The model data under the future warming scenario revised by the quantile-quantile adjustment can better reproduce the spatial distribution characteristics of wind speed, air temperature and precipitation, retain the trend of the simulated data, and adjust the threshold ranges of the mean and extreme values of these meteorological factor data. The high value area of wind speed in the future period is located on the Qiangtang Plateau in the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, the high value area of temperature is located in the eastern part of Tibet, and the high value area of precipitation is located in the southern part of the Himalayas, the eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, and the Yarlung Tsangpo River Big Bend region in southern Tibet. The revised data more obviously correct the cold bias and wet bias of the climate model's prediction of the Tibetan Plateau region as a whole.
(2) The western Himalayas, the Qaidam Basin, and the northern Tien Shan Mountains were areas of high values of wind erosion climate erosion force during the historical period (1995-2014). Compared with the historical period, the wind erosion climate erosion force under the future warming scenario (2041-2060) increases in the Gondola region and the western side of the Qaidam Basin, indicating that the wind erosion activity may increase in these two regions in the future, and decreases in the central plateau, northwestern Pamir Plateau and parts of the northern Tianshan Mountains compared with the historical period, indicating that the wind erosion activity in these regions is may weaken under future warming scenarios.