本文试图以一种长远的动态的与世界经济及FDI发展潮流相对照的眼光，来观察分析中国对外直接投资的长期发展趋势，并对当前我国政策取向进行思考和提出建议，以期有益于我国未来对外直接投资的发展。全文分八章，主要研究五个方面的问题：一、运用现有最适用的FDI理论，特别是英国学者约翰•邓宁(John H.Dunning)的国际投资发展周期理论—IDP，结合中国独特的经济及国际投资发展历史与对未来的预测，提出中国的净对外直接投资（Net Outward Investment）长期趋势曲线假设。时间跨度从唐朝到近代并至未来。中国作为世界最大的发展中国家，其企业的成长、对外直接投资和国家净对外直接投资发展趋势与IDP模型大致符合。但是，中国曾经是世界最富的国家，历史上已经有大量的个体经济和少量企业下南洋赴欧美，中国净对外直接投资长期趋势曲线也因此具有自己鲜明的特点。二、实证分析历史上中国人的“走出去”。在古代至明朝中期中国经济“先进阶段”,中国人到海外经商、创业逐步增多。在明朝中期至鸦片战争中国经济“变慢阶段”，中国民间的一些先觉者，感受到了西方资本主义发展潮流的涌动及机会，纷纷自发地到南洋及其它地区投资、经商、创业。在鸦片战争至1949年这一“落后阶段”，中国被动地开放市场，外资涌入；同时逐步生长出一批本土企业，其中少数企业尝试对外投资。在新中国成立以来这一“崛起阶段”，特别是1979年实行改革开放以后，中国企业通过向外资企业学习，逐步培育起国际化经营理念和自身优势，开始“走出去”。三、对当代“走出去”战略及其成效进行系统分析和评估。新世纪之始，中国政府根据国内外发展新形势提出了“走出去”战略，标志着中国对外开放进入了新阶段。“辩证地看，“走出去”战略的实施推动了中国企业对外直接投资的快速发展，对国内工业化进程提供了有效支持；但“走出去”战略是在国内工业化进程的背景下，在工业化思想的指导下形成的，其实施的效果也就是，利在工业化，弊也在工业化。四、对世界FDI发展形势和美、英、德、法、韩、新、俄的对外直接投资政策与措施进行了全面的分析。当今世界正从工业经济向信息、服务业经济方向发展。一些率先实现工业化的发达国家，已经进入了信息化、知识化、服务业化的经济形态。全球FDI流动趋势也反映了这一潮流，其中一个突出现象就是，FDI重心转向服务业，服务业已占世界 FDI总流入量的三分之二。制造业分工的专业化，使得有些环节分离出来，进入服务业范畴，如把研发、产品设计这个环节服务化。这些“服务”的产生，主要靠人的知识、价值观、审美、艺术情趣等素质和能力，靠的是知识密集的人力资本。未来资本密集型和技术密集型的FDI项目，将越来越多地产生于服务业，而不是制造业。当服务业完全主导制造业的时候，也就是工业社会的终结和信息社会或服务业社会的到来。五、对未来中国对外直接投资进行思考并提出政策建议。我们要顺应世界产业结构调整的“雁行模式”，但又不能陷于其中，而要跳出该模式，以积极的姿态推动我国产业结构的升级，转变经济发展方式。这既是国民经济发展的要求，也是国际直接投资的使命。提高我国吸收外商直接投资的质量是一个方面，更重要的是发挥我国企业的能动性，主动通过本国企业“走出去”，接近、引进世界先进，使我国产业发展与世界先进国家同步，再通过自主创新实现超越。为此，我们需要与时俱进地建设国际投资理论，从局内人的立场和视角研究国际资本流动；发展劳动价值论，认识人力资本的价值，重视非物质形态的知识、服务产品创造；完善国际投资、国际商务教材、教学体系，形成共识，规范行为，减少交易成本；转变政府职能，了解企业实际需求，改善对企业“走出去”的服务；完善产权制度及其它各项制度的建设，保护、培育企业的核心竞争力，让资本爱国。

The dissertation adopts a long-term and active perspective corresponding to global economy and FDI development trends. With the target of analyzing the long-term development trend of China’s Direct Investment Abroad and interpreting the present policy orientation, this paper is expected to be productive to the development of China’s Direct Investment Abroad.The paper is consisted of eight chapters, covering five major questions:Firstly, the paper attempts to suggest a hypothesis of China’s long-term Net Outward Investment trend curve by using the present popular FDI theories, especially the IDP (Investment Development Path) theory raised by the British scholar John H Dunning. With a time span expanding from Tang Dynasty to modern times and even to the future, the analyses will take the special developing track of China’s economy and international investment, as well as the forecast, into consideration. Actually, as the world’s largest developing country, China’s enterprises, outward FDI and net outward FDI development trend almost adheres to the IDP model. However, in the pre-modern history, China used to be the strongest country in economy, and there were a large number of individual economies and some of the enterprises explored the markets in southeast-Asia, Europe and America, which leads to a reasonable thinking that China’s net outward investment long-term trend curve should also have its own specialty. Secondly, the paper includes case studies concerning Chinese people’s attempt of “going out” in history. From ancient time to the mid-Ming Dynasty, China’s economy was going through its “advanced period” when many people from China started their business aboard. From mid-Ming Dynasty to the break of the Opium War, China’s economy was in its “backward period” when some pioneers were aware of western Capitalism’s developing trend and took the attendant business opportunities to spontaneously invest or start business in southeast-Asia and other regions. From the “Opium War” to the year 1949, China’s economy was in its “underdeveloped period” when China was forced to open its market and passively accepted foreign investment’s pouring in; meanwhile, native enterprises were started and some of them attempted to invest aboard. Since the year 1949, especially since the promotion of the “opening up” policy in 1979, China has stepped into the “rising period” when Chinese enterprises began to learn from the foreign companies and gradually obtained global management idea, after which they began to “go global”.Thirdly, the paper tries to analyze and evaluate the “going global” strategy and its effects. At the beginning of the new century, Chinese government raised “going global” strategy in accordance with the domestic and international situation, symbolizing China’s “opening up” process has opened a new chapter. Dialectically speaking, “going global” strategy accelerates the development of domestic enterprises’ overseas investment and provides an effective supports to China’s industrialization process; however, just because “going global” strategy is formed and promoted against the backdrop of national industrialization, its has both beneficial and harmful effects.Fourthly, the paper gives a comprehensive analysis on global FDI development trend and the FDI related policies adopted by the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Russia. Nowadays, global economic form is shifting from the traditional industry to information and services industry. Some industrialized countries have already entered the era of developing information, knowledge and service industry. This fact can also be illustrated by the global FDI flow trend, in which a major phenomenon is presented as 2/3 of the overall global FDI flowing into the service industry---- the focus of FDI is shifting to the service industry. The specialization in manufacturing industry leads to the fact that some sections, such as the R&D and design sections, are separated from the manufacturing industry and enter the service industry. The “services” are built on people’s knowledge, judgment of values, appreciation of beauty and tastes of art. In another word, it is built on the knowledge-intensive human capital. In the future, the capital-intensive and technology-intensive FDI projects will be more and more likely born in service industry instead of manufacturing industry. Moreover, when service industry completely controls manufacturing industry, it’s the time that industrialized society ends and information and service society begins.Fifthly, the paper forecasts China’s direct investment abroad and raises some advices and suggestions. It’s important to conform to “flying geese model” but not to fall into it; actually, it is necessary to get out of the model and actively promote China’s industrial structural upgrading to change the economic development pattern. This is not only the demand of the national economic development but also the mission of FDI flow. On one hand, the aim is to improve the quality of the inward FDI; on the other hand, it is essential to give play to the initiative of the domestic enterprises and expect them to catch up with or bring the world’s advanced techniques through spontaneous activities of “going global”, so that China’s industrial development can be at the same pace with or surpass the advanced countries in the world.Therefore, it is necessary to keep pace with the time and make sustainable efforts to build international investment theories, so that we can study international capital flow from an insider’s angle. It is also necessary to develop labor value theory and take the value of human capital into consideration, giving weight to both non-material knowledge and the creation of service products. What is equally important is to improve the text book and teaching system concerning international investment and international business study, obtaining common understanding and reducing the transaction cost. It is also significant for the government to transform its functions and provide better services to the “going global” enterprises after the awareness of the enterprises’ actual needs. Besides, it is essential to improve property rights institution and other systems, protecting and cultivating enterprises’ core competence and leading the capital to make contribution to the country.