海军是一个国家政治、经济、军事和文化实力的重要象征和体现，无论在历史上还是当今世界，所有的海洋霸主无一不是海军强国。19世纪末20世纪初，随着“世界政策”（Weltpolitik）的提出，德意志帝国也掀起了一场声势浩大的建设海军的热潮。德国海军建设的主持者是1897年开始担任海军署国务秘书的阿尔弗雷德#冯#蒂尔皮茨（Alfred von Tirpitz）。蒂尔皮茨认为海军的强弱关系到德国未来的生存，只有拥有一支强大的海军，德国才能取得世界强国的地位，而且蒂尔皮茨认为在新世纪世界范围内将会进行一场新的势力范围的划分，德国海军必须为此做好准备；同时强大的海军也可以产生强大的威慑力（尤其是对英国），并进一步增强德国成为一个盟国的价值，由此衍生出的“风险理论”则成为德国海军建设的指导战略。在这一思想的指导下，德国以战列舰为主体开始大规模建造战舰，并与英国展开了激烈的军备竞赛。德国海军实力也迅速膨胀，到一战前在主力战舰方面德国已成为仅次于英国的世界第二海军强国。虽然蒂尔皮茨制定的建造计划及其为海军所设计的战略部署特别是“风险理论”改变了德国海军发展缺少目标和战略指导的局面，但却存在着很大的缺陷和漏洞。蒂尔皮茨忽视了德国所处的地缘政治环境，德国主要是一个陆地国家，只有北方少数地区濒临海洋，它不具有英美那样发展海军的优越的地理位置，也没有长远和持久的海洋传统，所以发展海军会受到极大的限制。“风险理论”也不是依赖德国强大的军事实力，而是基于诸多主观的臆测，更多的是一种先入为主的观念。蒂尔皮茨所说的“风险”因素具有很大的不确定性，但他恰恰是把德国的命运押在了这种“风险”之上。在德国缺少自由出入海洋的交通线以及舰队实力不够强大的情况下，蒂尔皮茨的一切战略设计实际上没有任何价值。战争的现实使这一战略的诸多弊端和漏洞暴露无遗，同时也表明德国与真正的海军强国还相差甚远。德国在20世纪初力图从一个陆地强国变成一个海陆强国，强行改变陆权国家的自然禀赋，这也为德国的失败埋下伏笔。德国的经验和教训对我们今天的海军建设也具有一定的借鉴意义。

The navy is the most important symbol and embodiment of a nation’s political, economic, military and cultural strength. Whether in history or nowdays, the ocean overlords were always the great naval powers. At the end of 19th century and beginning of 20th century, along with the introduction of Welpolitik, the German Empire also set off an upsurge of naval construction.The leader of German naval construction was Alfred von Tirpitz, who was appointed to be the Secretary of RMA in 1897.Tirpitz thought that the naval strength was related to the future survival of Germany, only had a powerful navy, could Germany obatain the status of a world power. Tirpitz considered that there would be a new division of spheres of influence in the next century all over the world. German navy must be ready for this. Moreover, a strong navy could also produce powerful deterrent, especially to England, then futher strengthen the value of Germany as an alliance, and the “Risikogedanke” derived from it become the guiding strategy of German naval construction, giving priority to battleships. Under the instruction of this strategic thought, Germany began a large-scale naval construction, and launched a keenly contested arms race with Engand. German naval strength expanded rapidly, by 1914, in terms of battleship, Germany has become the greatest naval power which only inferior to British.Although Tirpitz’s building plan and naval stratrgy, especially the “Risikogedanke”, altered the situation that German naval development was lack of aim and guiding strategy. However, it had many defects. Tirpitz ignored the geopolitical environment of Germany. Germany was primarily a land-based country, only the north areas were bordered on the ocean, it didn’t have the advantageous geographical position in England and America to develop navy, and also didn’t have long-term and durable naval tradition, which brought much limitation to naval development. The “Risikogedanke” theory was not based on Germany’s powerful military strength, but on much pure conjecture, which were only some preconceived notions. The “Risk” fator which Tirpitz said was fraught with uncertainty, however, he was just bet the destiny of Germany on this “Risk”. Under the situation of lacking marine traffic lines and a powerful fleet, Tirpitz’s strategical plan was complately useless. The reality of war made the defects of the theory thoroughly exposed, and it also indicate that Germay was far away from a real great naval power.Germany strived to become a naval and terrestrial power from a terrestrial power at the beginning of 20th century, which changed the natural character of terrestrial power and predicted the failure of Germany. The experience and lessons from Germany were also useful to today’s naval construction.