燃煤电厂是我国最重要的大气污染排放源之一，为有效推进减排工作，目前我国正全面开展燃煤电厂超低排放改造，并加快生物质发电的发展。 本研究采用“自下而上”的排放因子法，结合锅炉、燃料和污染控制措施等因素，确定各类机组的活动水平与排放因子，建立了2015年中国燃煤和生物质电厂二氧化硫（SO2）、氮氧化物（NOx）、颗粒物（PM）、可吸入颗粒物（PM10）、细颗粒物（PM2.5）的大气污染物排放清单，并采用蒙特卡洛模拟法分析了清单的不确定性。此外，研究了燃煤和生物质电厂大气污染排放的时空分布特征，并对比分析了单位发电量的污染排放水平。清单分析结果显示： （1）2015年中国燃煤电厂共计排放SO2、NOx、PM、PM10、PM2.5分别约为2748.02 kt、2539.40 kt、514.29 kt、419.88 kt和328.92 kt。其中，燃煤电厂SO2、NOx、PM排放主要集中在华东和华北地区，约占全国排放量的56.2%、59.0%和54.3%。2011年以来燃煤电厂SO2、NOx、PM排放量逐年下降，至2015年分别降低62.1%、68.5%和64.2%，其中NOx减排效果最为显著，这是由于燃煤脱硝机组比例由2011年的19.7%大幅提高至2015年的95.0%。采用蒙特卡洛模拟法对燃煤电厂排放清单的不确定性进行定量分析，2015年我国燃煤电厂SO2、NOx、PM、PM10、PM2.5排放清单的不确定性分别是-21.8%～39.3%、-20.9%～29.7%、-21.3%～42.5%、24.8%～39.8%、-27.3%～43.9%。 （2）2015年中国生物质电厂SO2、NOx、PM的排放总量分别约为15565.80 t、34524.35 t和3964.64 t。其中，生物质电厂排放主要集中在农作物秸秆丰富的华东和中南地区，两地区分别占全国排放量的37.0%和28.0%左右，基本与生物质电厂装机容量分布一致。生物质电厂NOx排放最为突出，NOx排放总量约为SO2的2.22倍，主要因为生物质燃料的含氮量普遍偏高，而含硫量要低得多；且生物质电厂脱硝脱硫机组比例较低，分别为21.8%和10.7%左右，NOx超标情况较严重。采用蒙特卡洛模拟法，得到2015年我国生物质电厂SO2、NOx、PM排放清单的不确定性分别是-43.8%～45.1%、-40.1%～41.8%、-42.6%～44.2%。 （3）2015年燃煤电厂单位发电量SO2、NOx、PM排放量分别为0.706 g/kWh、0.652 g/kWh、0.132 g/kWh，生物质电厂分别为0.464 g/kWh、1.029 g/kWh、0.118 g/kWh。经分析得出，2015年生物质电厂在SO2减排上具有显著优势，而NOx减排上不具有优势。若生物质电厂完成脱硝改造，生物质电厂单位发电量污染排放水平可与燃煤电厂完成超低排放改造后相当，且在脱硫脱硝措施的运行成本上有优势。中国是农业大国，农作物秸秆等生物质产量巨大，大量秸秆的田间露天开放焚烧既浪费能源资源又造成环境污染，基于对燃煤与生物质电厂污染排放与控制研究分析，生物质电厂具有较好的发展前景。

Coal-fired power plants sector is one of the major sources of air pollution in China. In order to promote the emission reduction effectively, China is fully implementing the ultra-low emission transformation of coal-fired power plants and speeding up the development of biomass direct-combustion power generation. In this study, with the bottom-up emission estimation method, the emission inventory of sulfur dioxide(SO2), nitrogen oxides(NOx), particulate matter(PM), inhalable particulate matter(PM10), fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from coal-fired and biomass power plants for the year 2015 is developed based on available activity data and emission factors. Monte Carlo simulation method is used to analyze the uncertainty of the inventory. Based on the inventory results, the spatial and temporal distribution emission characteristics of air pollutions from coal-fired and biomass power plants are analyzed, and the emission rates per kilowatt-hour electricity generation are compared and analyzed. (1) The national total emissions of SO2, NOx, PM, PM10 and PM2.5 from coal-fired power plants in 2015 are estimated at 2748.02 kt, 2539.40 kt, 514.29 kt, 419.88 kt and 328.92 kt, respectively. The emissions of SO2, NOx, PM from coal-fired power plants are mainly concentrated in East China and North China, accounting for 56.2%, 59.0% and 54.3% of the national emissions, and have been decreasing since 2011, reduced by 62.1%, 62.5% and 64.2% by 2015, respectively. The effect of NOx emission reduction is the most remarkable, because the proportion of coal-fired denitrification units has increased sharply from 19.7% in 2011 to 95.0% in 2015. The inventories uncertainties of SO2, NOx, PM, PM10 and PM2.5 emissions of Chinese coal-fired power plants in 2015 are quantified by Monte Carlo simulation in -21.8%～39.3%, -20.9%～29.7%, -21.3%～42.5%, 24.8%～39.8%, -27.3%～43.9%, respectively. (2) The national total emissions of SO2, NOx and PM from biomass-fired power plants in 2015 are estimated at 15565.80 t, 34524.35 t and 3964.64 t, respectively. The emissions of SO2, NOx, PM from biomass power plants are mainly concentrated in East China and Central South China, accounting for 37.0% and 28.0% of the national emissions respectively, which are basically in accordance with the installed capacity distribution of biomass power plants. The NOx emission of biomass power plants is the most prominent, and the total NOx emission is about 2.22 times that of SO2. The main reason is that the nitrogen content of biomass fuels is generally higher and the sulphur content is much lower. What’s more, the proportion of denitrification and desulfurization units in biomass power plant is only about 21.8% and 10.7%, respectively. The inventories uncertainties of SO2, NOx and PM emissions of Chinese biomass power plants in 2015 are quantified by Monte Carlo simulation in -43.8%～45.1%, -40.1%～41.8% and -42.6%～44.2%, respectively. (3) The SO2, NOx, PM emission rates per kilowatt-hour electricity generation of coal-fired power plants in 2015 are 0.706 g/kWh, 0.652 g/kWh and 0.132 g/kWh, respectively, and that of biomass power plants are 0.464 g/kWh, 1.029 g/kWh and 0.118 g/kWh, respectively. According to the analysis, biomass power plants have significant advantage in SO2 emission reduction in 2015, but not in NOx emission reduction. China is an agricultural country, with huge crop straw and other biomass production, and open field burning of a large amount of straw not only wastes energy resources but also causes environmental pollution. Based on the research and analysis of pollution emission and control in coal-fired and biomass power plants, biomass power plants have a good development prospect.