中国足球超级联赛作为中国最高级别的足球联赛，代表着中国足球的最高水平，研究中超联赛，对了解和促进中国足球发展有着重要意义。为了克服使用主观观察的局限性，并提供客观的信息以更好地理解表现行为，在1970-1980时期运动表现分析领域开始逐渐活跃，于1990年后进入快速稳定的发展时期。考虑到红牌事件的发生对比赛的影响，球队有必要尽可能避免此类事件，因为事件的发生会破坏局面的平衡，并可能使球队处于劣势。研究对象为2017至2019赛季720场比赛中的红牌事件，本文分析重点将放在149张第一张红牌上，而忽略了8张同场比赛同支球队随后判罚和1张向替补席上球员判罚的红牌。通过对数据做筛选清洗，并进行描述统计分析，了解红牌的数量、时间、位置及判罚类别等变量的分布特征。采用卡方检验确定有无红牌事件的发生与比赛结果之间的差异。再分别考虑主客场和强弱队因素，确定有无红牌事件的发生与比赛结果的差异。通过累积logistic模型实现红牌事件的发生对比赛结果影响的量化。

研究结果：

(1)红牌判罚数量随赛季增加，并且直接红牌的判罚方式增幅趋近于间接红牌的判罚方式。红牌判罚时间高峰在76-90分钟时间段。有红牌事件发生后，球队的进球数是减少的。后卫球员是主要被判罚红牌的对象。

(2)主客场情况下红牌判罚情况有差异，客场更容易被判罚红牌。并且有无红牌事件的发生对主场球队的比赛结果无影响，对客队的比赛结果有影响，在客场红牌事件的发生会导致球队输的概率增加。

(3)不同球队实力水平下红牌判罚情况有差异，中下游球队更容易被判罚红牌。并且有无红牌事件的发生对不同水平的球队影响不同，球队水平越低，红牌事件的发生会导致球队输球的概率越大，对手实力水平为上游球队时，有无红牌事件的发生对比赛结果无影响，但当对手实力水平越低时，有无红牌事件的发生对比赛结果具有影响，有红牌事件的发生会导致比赛结果为负的概率越低。

(4)有无红牌事件的发生对比赛结果有着重要的影响，考虑其他不同情境因素下，有红牌事件的发生均对比赛结果会产生负面影响，不考虑其他不同情景因素的情况下，在未被判罚红牌的情况下，比赛结果为负的发生概率越小(24%)，平的概率为11%,而比赛结果为胜的发生概率越大(65%)，而在被红牌判罚的情况下，比赛结果为负的发生概率越大(43%)，平的概率为22%，为胜的发生概率越小(35%)。

As the highest-level football league in China, the Chinese Football Super represents the highest level of Chinese football. The study of the Chinese Super League is of great significance to understanding and promoting the development of Chinese football.In order to overcome the limitations of using subjective observations and provide objective information to better understand performance behavior, the field of sports performance analysis began to become active during the 1970-1980 period, and entered a period of rapid and stable development after 1990.Taking into account the impact of the red card incident on the game, it is necessary for the team to avoid such incidents as much as possible, because the occurrence of the incident will disrupt the balance of the situation and may put the team at a disadvantage.The research object is the red card event in the 720 games of the 2017-2019 season.The analysis of this article will focus on the 149 first red cards, while ignoring 8 subsequent penalties from the same team in the same game and one red card awarded to a player on the bench.by filtering and cleaning the data, and performing descriptive statistical analysis, we can understand the distribution characteristics of variables such as the number, time, location, and penalty category of red cards.The chi-square test is used to determine whether there is a difference between the occurrence of a red card event and the result of the game.Then consider the factors of home and away and strong and weak teams separately to determine whether there is a difference between the occurrence of red card events and the results of the game.The cumulative logistic model is used to quantify the impact of red card events on the outcome of the game.

Research result:

(1) The number of red card penalties increases with the season, and the increase in direct red card penalties approaches that of indirect red card penalties. The peak time for red cards is between 76 and 90 minutes. After a red card event occurred, the number of goals scored by the team was reduced. Defenders are mainly subject to red cards.

(2) There are differences in the red card penalties in the home and away situations, and the away game is more likely to be penalized. And the occurrence of a red card event has no effect on the result of the home team's game, but has an impact on the result of the away team's game. The occurrence of an away red card event will increase the probability of the team losing.

(3) There are differences in red card penalties under different team strength levels, middle and lower teams are more likely to be fined red cards.And whether there is a red card incident has different effects on teams of different levels.The lower the level of the team, the greater the probability that the red card event will cause the team to lose.When the opponent's strength level is the upstream team, the occurrence of a red card event has no effect on the result of the game.However, when the opponent's strength level is lower, whether the red card event occurs has an impact on the result of the game.The occurrence of a red card event will lead to a lower probability of a negative match result.

(4) Whether there is a red card event has an important impact on the result of the game,Considering other different situational factors,the occurrence of red card events will have a negative impact on the outcome of the game.Without considering other different situational factors,in the case of no red card penalty, the lower the probability of occurrence of a negative match result (24%),the probability of a tie is 11%, and the greater the probability of a win (65%).In the case of a red card, the greater the probability of a negative game result (43%), the probability of a tie of 22%, and the lower the probability of a win (35%).