滑坡是一种常见的地质灾害，常常会掩埋村庄、摧毁厂矿、破坏铁路和公路交通、堵塞江河、损坏农田和森林等，从而给人民生命财产和国家的经济建设都造成严重损失。而我国是一个滑坡灾害多发的国家：滑坡分布极广，滑坡灾害十分严重，每年给人民的生命财产和工农业生产造成过严重的损失。大量实践表明，通过对滑坡灾害有效的监测与预警可以大大减少灾害带来的损失。所以，开展滑坡灾害监测与预警的研究是十分必要的。 广东省珠海市自然地理条件复杂，是一个滑坡灾害发生较频繁的地区。随着社会和国民经济的迅速发展，滑坡灾害所造成的损失越来越大。以GIS与遥感作为最主要的技术支撑的滑坡灾害监测与预警工作是防灾减灾中一个重要组成部分。按照成灾主导因素占优的原则，结合珠海市科技局项目“珠海市自然灾害预警信息系统的研究与开发”展开针对珠海市自然地理条件的滑坡灾害预警预报方面的研究，设计并开发了珠海市滑坡灾害预警系统。 研究从珠海市滑坡灾害现状入手，整理入库珠海市的滑坡分布历史数据、地质情况以及降雨量资料等相关信息，建立了珠海市滑坡数据管理系统以及灾害图件管理系统，为滑坡灾害风险预测及实时预警预报提供基础的资料。根据相关地质灾害预测研究成果，针对珠海市滑坡灾害特点，分别引入信息量模型、Verhulst灰色模型、有效降雨量模型开展滑坡灾害空间以及时间预测研究，使得滑坡灾害预警预报工作更具有针对性和有效性。最后，基于GIS组件技术，应用ArcEngine控件在Microsoft Visual Studio 2005平台进行珠海市滑坡灾害预警系统的开发，数据库采用空间数据引擎ArcSDE 和SQL Server 2000。同时，为了直观地进行滑坡灾害分布情况的展示，利用Direct3D图形库建立了滑坡灾害三维浏览子系统，共同实现了滑坡灾害时空预测与结果展示。

Landslide is the common geological disaster, which can bury villages, destroy factories and mines, break rails and roads traffic, jam rivers, damage farmlands and forests, and do great harm to the people's lives and properties. China is a region where high incidence of the landslide disaster. And landslide has a wide distribution in our country, which causes serious losses every year. Many practices give the evidence that landslides monitoring and predication can greatly reduce the loss of landslide disaster. So, it is very importance to carry out the research on the monitoring and predication of landslide disasters. Zhuhai, a city of Guangdong province, is a region that has a more frequent occurrence of landslide disasters because its very complex natural and geographical conditions. With the rapid development of the economy and society, the loss caused by landslide disasters is increasing. Based on the technology of GIS and remote sensing, the monitoring and predication of landslide disasters could take positive effect in reducing and preventing landslide disasters. According to the principle of priority of disaster dominant factor and physiographic condition of Zhuhai, the study of early warning and forecast of the landslide disasters is carried out, which is supported by the projects of Zhuhai science and technology Administrative Bureau: “Research and Development of Warning Information System of Natural Disasters in Zhuha”. Beginning with studying on the status of the relevant information of landslide disasters is collected and input to the data-base, for example, historic data of distributions of landslide disasters, geological data, and rainfall data and so on. Database management system and diagrams management system of landslide disasters in Zhuhai was build up with the above data, which can provide basic information for risk prediction and early warning of landslide disasters. In view of some relevant research results and theories of geological disasters and the characteristics of landslide disasters in Zhuhai, the study of time and spatial forecast of landslide disasters was done by introduce th Information Value Model, Grey Model (Verhulst), and Effective Rainfall Model. At last, Using GIS component technique, the prediction and warning system of landslide disaster in Zhuhai was developed with ArcEngine Controls on the programming platform of Microsoft Visual Studio 2005. And its database is realized by the combination of ArcSDE(spatial data engine) and SQL Server 2000. For displaying the distributions of landslide disasters intuitively, the 3D visualization subsystem of landslide disasters was built up with Direct3D.