经济结构调整是我国各地区特别是欠发达地区实现消除贫困和跨越发展的必然选择。 由于我国同时面临着日益趋紧的碳排放约束，如何在经济结构调整中，协同实现经济低碳 转型，是当前宏观经济决策的关键课题。然而，目前针对经济结构调整战略的影响研究主 要集中在社会经济影响，低碳视角的评估相对不足。 战略碳足迹评估是一种测度经济发展战略低碳化程度的有效工具。通过评估经济结构 调整战略对碳足迹变化的影响，能有效识别战略措施实施过程中存在的重视短期 GDP 增 长而忽视长期可持续发展，重视发展高碳的重化工业和投资而忽视低碳服务业和消费的发 展等问题。目前，碳足迹评估主要用于评估产品、企业或者某项具体社会经济技术调整对 碳足迹结构、隐含碳流动和驱动因子某一方面的影响，而综合考虑上述三个方面，并将其 应用于评估经济结构调整战略影响的理论或实证研究较少。 本研究从碳足迹结构、隐含碳流动和驱动因子三个方面构建了战略碳足迹评估的理论 框架。在此基础上，从碳排放核算和预测，到碳足迹估算和隐含碳流动分析，再到碳排放 和碳足迹变化驱动因子分解，构建了一整套综合评估技术方法体系。具体而言，该体系包 括：基于排放因子法的不同经济部门碳排放核算、基于情景分析和 LEAP 模型的经济部门 碳排放预测、基于 RAS 方法的投入产出表中中间产品矩阵预测、基于生命周期投入产出模 型的碳足迹结构和隐含碳流动解析、基于 Kaya 公式和 IPAT 模型的碳足迹变化驱动因子识 别和基于 SDA-LMDI 模型的碳足迹变化驱动因子定量化分解等 6 个子模块。并按照 DPSIR 框架的思路，从驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应五方面构建了评估指标体系。基于上述 综合评估体系，本研究将其应用于我国典型的欠发达地区——云南省经济结构调整战略的 碳足迹评估中（评估时段为 1997－2050 年），通过对该省参考情景、供给侧结构调整战略 情景和需求侧结构调整战略情景下相关参数和碳足迹指标进行量化和对比分析，以期为其 实现经济低碳转型提供决策支撑。主要结论如下： 第一，通过碳排放和碳足迹核算及部门碳强度分析发现：1997－2050 年，三个情景下 云南总碳排放呈持续增长趋势，碳排放强度则呈降低趋势；供给侧情景下才能实现 2030 年碳排放强度比 2005 年降低 60%以上的减排目标；碳足迹和碳足迹强度的变化趋势与碳 排放和碳排放强度的变化趋势相同，然而碳足迹强度的降幅低于碳排放强度；碳足迹的增 长将更加依赖外部碳足迹流入的支持，需求侧情景下才能降低对外部碳足迹的依赖；电力、 金属压延加工等高耗能部门是主要的直接碳强度较高的部门，建筑、重型机械制造等部门是主要的间接碳强度较高的部门。 第二，通过分析碳排放和碳足迹结构及经济部门间隐含碳流动规律发现：流向农村居 民的原煤和流向城镇居民的汽油中隐含碳流量的增长是居民生活碳排放和碳足迹增长的 主要动力；供给侧视角看，电力、金属压延加工、非金属制品、交通运输和化学工业是五 大主要的碳排放和碳足迹贡献部门；需求侧视角看，建筑、金属压延加工、电力和其它服 务是四大主要的碳排放和碳足迹贡献部门；建筑部门的隐含碳主要流向了投资，金属压延 加工和电力部门的隐含碳主要流向了流出（包括出口和调出），其它服务部门的隐含碳则 主要流向了消费。 第三，通过分析碳排放和碳足迹变化驱动因子发现：分解分析视角看，经济规模扩张 和碳强度降低分别是驱动碳排放和碳足迹增长和减少的主要因子；然而，碳强度降低的减 少作用越来越难以抵消经济规模扩张的增长作用；最终需求视角看，投资规模的扩大是驱 动碳排放和碳足迹增长的重要因子，且将使云南更加依赖外部碳足迹的增长；需求侧情景 下才能降低投资对碳排放和碳足迹增长的驱动作用；分部门看，金属压延加工和电力等高 碳原材料产品的流出增长，建筑部门投资的增长和其它服务部门消费的增长是驱动碳排放 和碳足迹增长的主要因子。 第四，基于上述分析，本研究提出促进云南经济低碳转型的政策框架和发展路径。供 给侧结构调整战略的主要政策方向包括：促进清洁能源的开发和应用；进一步提升高耗能 部门的能源利用效率；根据产业部门的总碳强度和当地的比较优势调整产业结构。需求侧 结构调整战略的主要政策方向包括：促进经济增长模式由投资和流出驱动型向消费驱动型 转变；从生命周期视角优化最终需求产品的供应链；优化最终需求结构。比较而言，“十 三五”（2016－2020 年）和“十四五”（2021－2025 年）时期，经济结构调整的重点方向 是供给侧结构调整，此阶段应全力实现区域碳排放强度降低和碳排放总量控制目标；“十 五五”（2026－2030 年）时期，经济结构调整的重点方向应转向需求侧结构调整，此阶段 应逐步控制碳足迹相应指标；2031－2050 年，经济结构调整的重点方向应向着实现供给侧 和需求侧结构的平衡推进，并开发综合性指标以监测供给侧和需求侧结构的平衡性及其对 碳足迹变化的影响。

Economic structural adjustment is an inevitable choice for the elimination of poverty and the leap-forward development in some regions, especially in less-developed areas in China. At the same time, China is facing the increasingly tight constrains of carbon emissions; therefore, reaching a low-carbon transformation in the process of economic structural adjustment is the key topic in current macroeconomic decision. However, the current research regarding impacts of the economic structural adjustment strategies is mainly focused on the social and economic aspects; but the impact evaluation from a low-carbon perspective is still relatively infrequent. Strategic carbon footprint evaluation is an effective tool when measuring the low-carbon progress degree of an economic development strategy. It is also an operative way to identify the problems during the economic structural adjustment process such as giving great importance to short-term GDP growth and the development of high-carbon heavy industry and investment while ignoring the long-term sustainable development and the progress of low-carbon services and consumptions, through assessing the impact of economic structural adjustment on carbon footprint change. Nowdays, carbon footprint evaluation is mainly applied to products and enterprises or it is used to assess the impact of a specific social, economic or technical adjustment to some aspects of regional carbon footprint such as the structure of carbon footprint, the embodied carbon flows or the drivers of changes in carbon footprint. However, a comprehensive evaluation of how economic structural adjustment strategies affects the structure of carbon footprint, the embodied carbon flows and the drivers of changes in carbon footprint are topics that have not being developed in either theoretical or empirical research. The present work is focused on the constructions of a comprehensive theoretical framework on assessing how economic strategies affect the structure of carbon footprint, the embodied carbon flows and the drivers of changes in carbon footprint. Consequently, it developed an evaluation methodology system includes carbon emissions accounting and forecasting, carbon footprint estimation and embodied carbon flow analysis, decomposition on the drivers of changes in carbon emissions and carbon footprint. Specifically, the system includes six sub modules: Accounting the carbon emissions of economic sectors based on emission factor method; Predicting the carbon emissions of economic sectors based on the scenario analysis and LEAP model; Predicting the intermediate products matrix in input-output table based on the RAS method; Carbon footprint structure and embodied carbon flows analysis based on the economic input output-life cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model; Identifying the drivers of changes in carbon footprint based on the Kaya identity and IPAT model; And quantitative decomposition of carbon footprint drivers based on the SDA-LMDI model. And then this research developed an evaluation indicator system based on the DPSIR framework which takes into account five aspects: drivers, pressures, status, impacts and responses. The evaluation system mentioned above was applied to a case study in China’s typical underdeveloped region－Yunnan province (the assessment periods are from 1997 to 2050). The main purpose of this research is to provide decision support for the economic low-carbon transformation through comparing and quantifying the parameters and carbon footprint index in three different scenarios: reference scenario, supply side structural adjustment strategy scenario and demand side structural adjustment strategy scenario. The main conclusions are as follows: First, through the carbon emission and carbon footprint accounting and sectoral carbon intensity analysis, this research found that: From 1997 to 2050, Yunnan’s carbon emissions were in a continued growth trend under the three scenarios, while its carbon emission intensity decreased. Only under the supply side scenario, Yunnan will reach the emissions reduction target which is to decrease the carbon emission intensity in more than 60% in 2030 compared to the 2005 level. The variation of carbon footprint and carbon footprint intensity is the same as the carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity, however, the reduction rate of carbon footprint intensity was significantly lower than the carbon emission intensity. Yunnan’s carbon footprint growth will be more dependent on the inflow of external carbon footprint. Only under the demand side scenario, Yunnan will reduce the dependence on external carbon footprint. Energy intensive sectors such as electricity and metal processing were the main sectors with high direct carbon intensity, while construction and heavy manufacture were the main sectors with high indirect carbon intensity. Second, through the analysis of carbon emission and carbon footprint structure and the law of embodied carbon flow among economic sectors, this research found that: The growth of embodied carbon flows from row coal to rural households and gasoline to urban households causing for the increase of household related carbon emissions and carbon footprint. From the supply side perspective, electricity, metal processing, nonmetal products, transportation and chemistry were the main sectors contributing to carbon emissions and carbon footprint. From the demand side perspective, construction, metal processing, electricity and other services were the main sectors contributing to carbon emissions and carbon footprint. The embodied carbon in the construction sector flowed to investment, the embodied carbon in the metal processing and electricity sectors flowed to exports (including international exports and interregional exports), and the embodied carbon in the other service sector flowed to consumptions. Third, through analyzing the drivers of changes in carbon emissions and carbon footprint, this research found that: From the decomposition analysis perspective, economic scale expansion and carbon intensity reduction were the main drivers for the increase and decrease of carbon emissions and carbon footprint, respectively. Nevertheless, the decrease effect of carbon intensity reduction was more difficult to offset the increase effect of economic scale expansion. From the final demand perspective, the sustainable growth of the investments was the most important driver for the increase of carbon emissions and carbon footprint. Additionally, the expansion of investment scale will promote the regional carbon footprint depending more on the growth of external carbon footprint. Only under the demand side scenario, Yunnan will reduce the increase effect of investment growth on carbon emissions and carbon footprint. From the sectoral perspective, the growth of product exports in electricity and metal processing sectors, the increase of product investments in construction sector and the increase of product consumptions in other service sector were the main drivers for carbon emission and carbon footprint increase. Fourth, based on the above analysis, this research put forward the policy frameworks and development pathways for Yunnan’s economic low-carbon transformation. Regarding the supply side structural adjustment, the main policy frameworks should include: Promoting the development and application of clean energy; further improvement of the energy efficiency in energy intensive sectors; adjusting the industrial structure according to sectoral total carbon intensity and local comparative advantages. From the demand side structural adjustment perspective, the main policy frameworks can include: Promoting economic growth pattern changing from driven by investments and exports to driven by consumptions; optimizing the supply chains of final demand products from the life cycle perspective; optimizing the final demand structure. In comparison, in ―13th Five-Year‖ (2016－2020) and ―14th Five-Year‖ (2021 －2025) plan periods, Yunnan should focus on the supply side structural adjustment and achieving the regional carbon emission intensity reduction and carbon emission control targets; in the ―15th Five-Year‖ (2026－2030) plan period, Yunnan should turn to demand side structural adjustment and gradually control the carbon footprint related indicators. In the period 2031－ 2050, Yunnan’s economic structural adjustment strategies should promote to realize the balance between supply side and demand side structure and developing comprehensive indicator to monitor the balance and its impact on carbon footprint change.