2010年底，北京市发布《北京市小客车数量调控暂行规定》，自2011年1月1日正式实施通过摇号方式配置私人小客车配置指标，最主要的目的是“实现小客车数量合理、有序增长，有效缓解交通拥堵状况”。小客车调控政策从出台始，就成为社会各界关注的热点。截至2022年12月北京市汽车保有量712.8万辆，比2010年底增长231.9万辆。对于政策目标的实现，排除疫情影响的3年，北京市整体道路拥堵水平一直保持轻度拥堵，严重拥堵情况依然常见。政策从颁布实施以来，12年间2次修订实施细则，2次修改暂行规定。修订、修改的目的是保证“有序增长”，尽量精准识别“刚需”人群。但普通北京市民摇号中签率越来越低，积分排队和轮候也遥遥无期，作为现代城市生活水平标志的小客车对于多数无车家庭和个人成了奢望。从以情况反映，似乎该政策实施效果不佳，该政策继续作为北京市治理拥堵重要政策的必要性，值得怀疑和商榷。
针对以上疑问，为探究北京市小客车数量调控政策的实施效果，本文运用韦唐提出的公共政策评估模式目标达成模型和用户导向模型，区分事实评价与价值评价，建立以客观数据评价与主观感受评价相结合的评价框架，分别对政策目标达成和政策用户满意度进行评估后，得出政策实施效果整体评价。研究中，本文利用统计分析、调查问卷法对客观数据和主观感受数据进行收集整理并分析；在进行客观数据评价时，利用层次分析法通过专家打分，设置评价指标权重；在进行政策综合评价时，利用前后对比法和用户评定法对政策实施情况各项指标进行分析。
基于上述模型、方法，本文在计算政策客观评价综合指数和统计分析调查问卷数据后，最终得出政策实施效果评价：目标基本符合，态度基本满意。虽然政策实施效果总体积极，但仍有问题存在：道路机动车数量不断增加，对道路拥堵缓解起到了负作用；道路拥堵改善不彰、政策公平性欠佳、公共交通改善缓慢等影响居民对该政策的支持，不少居民通过规避行为逃避政策限制。
最后，就评价结果结合北京市现状，给出政策建议：以增加牌照发放量为目控制机动车出行量，采取绿色积分鼓励绿色出行并补偿，疏堵结合化解矛盾和利用先进手段努力将政策目标与民众期盼相统一。

At the end of 2010, "Interim Regulations on the Control of the Number of Small Passenger Cars in Beijing" was issued by Beijing government, which was officially implemented on January 1, 2011. With the measures of registration through lottery or waiting, the main purpose is to achieve a reasonable and orderly growth in the number of small passenger cars, as well as effectively alleviate traffic congestion. Since the implement of the regulation and control policy, it has attractted a large amount of public attention.  At the end of December 2022, there were 7.128 million vehicles in Beijing, with an increase of 2.319 million, as compared to 2010. Exclude the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the past three years, the overall level of road congestion has remained mild, while severe congestion is still common. Since the application of the policy, the implementation rules and the provisional regulations have been revised twice in the past 12 years. The purpose of revision and modification is to ensure "orderly growth" and identify "just in need" groups as accurately as possible. However, the allocation rate of ordinary Beijing citizens is becoming lower and lower. Meanwhile, the queuing and waiting time are also far away. Therefore, as a symbol of modern urban living standard, small buses have become an extravagant expectation for most families and individuals without cars. From the situation, it seems that the implementation of this policy has not been effective, and the necessity of continuing to serve as an important policy for Beijing's congestion control is questionable and debatable.
In response to the above issues, in order to explore the implementation effect of the control policy of Beijing, this article used the public policy evaluation model proposed by Wei Tang and user oriented model to distinguish the fact evaluation and value evaluation, and established an evaluation framework that combined objective data evaluation and subjective feeling evaluation. After evaluating the policy goal achievement and policy user satisfaction, the overall evaluation of the effectiveness of policy implementation was obtained. In the research, the article used statistical analysis and questionnaires to collect and analyze objective data and subjective perception data; When evaluating objective data, the AHP method was used to set evaluation index weights through expert scoring; During the comprehensive evaluation of policies, the pre- and post-comparison method and the object evaluation method were used to analyze various indicators of policy implementation.
Based on the above models and methods, after calculating the comprehensive index of objective evaluation of policies and statistical analysis of Survey questionnaire data, this article finally obtained a comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness of policy implementation: The goal is basically met, and the attitude is basically satisfactory. Although the overall effectiveness of policy implementation is positive, there are still problems that exist: The increasing number of road motor vehicles has played a negative role in road congestion alleviation and offset the positive effects of other policies; Inadequate improvement in road congestion, poor policy fairness, and slow improvement in public transportation have negative effect on residents' support for this policy. Moreover, many residents have evaded policy restrictions through evasive behavior. 
Finally, based on the evaluation results and the current situation of Beijing, Control the number of motor vehicle trips with the aim of increasing license plate issuance, it is better to increase the number of license, adopt green points to encourage green travel and give compensation, and combine relieve congestion with advanced measures to align the policy objectives with public expectations.