以农业转移人口为重点，推动非户籍人口在城市落户，全面融入城市是“十四五”规划的要求和新型城镇化建设的重点任务。准确理解流动人口落户意愿的影响因素，对于科学制定我国人口和城镇化政策具有重要意义。由于分析范围往往聚焦特定区域，或是仅关注部分因素，已有关于流动人口落户意愿影响因素的研究中出现了矛盾性的结论。本研究综合考虑各地情况和各类变量，使用国家卫生健康委2017年流动人口动态监测数据，以主体功能区规划为框架划分流入地，在不同主体功能区中描述了流动人口的落户意愿和人口特征；首次将机器学习方法应用于流动人口落户意愿研究，创新使用随机森林模型和平均不纯净度降低方法，对影响流动人口落户意愿的因素进行了重要性排序。

在流动人口的分布上，社会经济发展水平越高的地区中，聚集着平均年龄越小、受教育程度越高的流动人口，其中愿意落户的比例也越高。环渤海地区户籍对非农业户籍流动人口吸引力巨大，农业户籍流动人口则在宁夏沿黄经济区、天山北坡地区和太原城市群等中西部城市群中落户意愿较高。在优化开发区中，流动人口落户意愿和长期居留意愿不统一的比例最高，这一比例在限制开发区中最低。

在流动人口落户意愿影响因素的重要性排序上，对落户意愿影响最大的是流动人口想融入流入地的希望和可以在流入地生活下去的能力。整体来看，高重要性影响因素涉及的范围广，重要性排序在第一梯队的是社会心理融合因素；在第二梯队的是经济因素和住房因素；在第三梯队的是流动因素、个体因素、地区因素、工作因素、户籍因素、制度融合和社会关系融合。对于农业户籍流动人口来说，流动因素和个体因素的影响更为突出。

       研究结果表明，需要进一步重视社会心理融合因素对落户意愿的影响，社会心理融合所表征的部分信息独立于客观因素之外。总体而言，落户意愿的形成是众多因素综合作用的结果，所有单一变量的改变对落户意愿的影响都是微小的，这表明流动人口落户意愿的影响因素具有高度多元性。因此，推动流动人口落户和市民化，需要系统综合的政策设计。

Focusing on the rural migrant workers, promoting the non-registered population to settle in city and fully integration into cities are the requirements of the 14th Five-Year plan and the key task of new urbanization construction. Different understanding of the influencing factors of floating population's settlement intention is related to different policy design direction. Because of the specific scope of analysis being focused, or the small range of factors being used, there are contradictory conclusions about the influencing factors of floating population's settlement intention. Based on the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this study divides the inflow areas according to the Main-functional Zones, and describes the intention for urban household registration and characteristics of floating population in different Main-functional Zones; It is the first time to apply machine learning method to the study of floating population’s intention for urban household registration, innovatively using random forest model and MDI method to rank the importance of the factors affecting floating population's willingness to settle down.

In terms of the distribution of floating population, areas with higher level of social and economic development also have higher proportion of floating population who are willing to settle down. People in these areas are also younger and with higher level of education. The registered residence in Bohai Rim has great attraction for non-agricultural household floating population. The floating population with agricultural registered residence has relatively higher are more willing to settle down in the middle and the west city clusters, like Economic Zone along Yellow River, the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain and TaiYuan city group. Among the optimized development zone, the proportion difference between the floating population's willingness to settle down and long-term residence is the highest, and this proportion difference among the restricted development zone is the lowest.

In terms of importance rank of influencing factors of floating population's willingness for urban household registration, The the most crucial factors in intention for urban household registration is the hope that the floating population wants to integrate into cities and the ability to live in cities. On the whole, the factors with high variable importance measures involve a wide range. The factor of social psychological integration is in the first class of importance ranking; Economic factors and housing factors are in the second class of importance ranking; Mobile factors, individual factors, regional factors, work factors, registered residence factors, institutional integration and social relations integration are in the third class of importance ranking.

The results show that more attention needed to pay to the influence of social psychological integration factors on the intention for urban household registration, and some information represented by social psychological integration is independent of objective factors. The formation of intention for urban household registration is caused by multiple factors interacting comprehensively, and the change of single variable has little effect on it. In some areas, influencing factors affects the floating population's intention for urban household registration in "qualitatively" effective way, rather than "quantitatively" effective way. Combined with the actual situation of particular area, the research may provide more targeted information for promoting the formulation of policies for the settlement of floating population.