Under the
background background that the Sino-US high tariff pattern cannot be cracked in
the short term, it is of practical significance to explore the impact of tariff
shocks in international trade on China, and the large-scale tariff changes
caused by Sino-US trade disputes provide an analytical basis for this study.
Since 2018, the tariff increase in the Sino-US trade dispute has involved more
than $460.7 billion in goods, making it the largest tariff dispute in history.
At the end of October 2019, China and the United States have imposed tariffs on
each other for more than six rounds. Although the signing of the first phase of
the economic and trade agreement between China and the United States on January
15, 2020 temporarily suspended the unprecedented economic and trade tensions
caused by mutual tariffs imposed by the two sides in the past two years.
However, the tariffs of the two countries have not been substantially
cancelled. Up to now, 64.5% of U.S. imports from China and 56.7% of China’s
imports from the U.S. still face the impact of additional tariffs, and
China-U.S. economic and trade relations are still relatively variable. Based on
the product-level customs database, combined with micro-enterprise data and
industry-level data, this article examines the impact of Sino-US trade disputes
on China’s economy from two aspects and four topics: On the one hand, in the
short term, first, study the impact of Sino-US trade disputes. The impact of
the behavior of China’s importing companies and its price effects. Secondly,
from the perspective of price, we estimate China’s welfare losses caused by the
Sino-US trade dispute through the traditional tariff transmission model. On the
other hand, from a mid- to long-term perspective, first, from the production
network model It starts with theoretical and empirical research on the impact
of Sino-US trade disputes on consumer product prices and intermediate
categories. Secondly, it focuses on the labor market and studies the impact of
Sino-US trade disputes on corporate employment based on corporate microdata.
The second chapter of this article sorts out the
relevant documents discussing the Sino-US trade disputes and exploring the
impact of tariff changes. The third chapter combs the timeline of Sino-US trade
disputes from mutual tariffs to economic and trade agreements, and discusses
the industry level. Descriptive statistical analysis. On the basis of Chapters
2 and 3, Chapter 4 combines the list of products subject to tariffs imposed by
China and the United States in the Sino-US trade war, customs product-level import and
export data and tariff data, etc., using the event analysis method and the
double difference model, It focuses on the analysis of the impact of tariffs on
import companies in China and the United States and the price effect. The
results show that: First, from the perspective of the entire product sample,
after the tariffs imposed by China and the United States, both the import value
and the number of imported products of the two countries have been
significantly reduced, while the import prices faced by the import companies of
China and the United States have not changed significantly, but include The tax
price has increased. Therefore, the losses caused by the increase in tariffs
are mainly passed on to the domestic importing enterprises of various
countries. Second, in further subdividing different types of products, using
the three-differential regression model to find that, compared with the trade
of intermediate goods, China is There is a certain market power in the final
product trade, so that the losses caused by the tariff increase are borne by
the final product export enterprise of the other country.
The fifth chapter focuses on the tariff
transmission mechanism based on the analysis of the event. By constructing a
traditional tariff transmission model, starting from the perspective of price
changes, using the list of products subject to additional tariffs in my
country, customs product-level import and export data, and tariff data
Estimated the overall welfare losses of importers and overall welfare in my
country's domestic market and in the intermediate and final product markets in
the Sino-US trade dispute. The results show that the total welfare loss from
July to December 2018 was US$978 million, and the total welfare loss in 2019
was US$1.416 billion. By distinguishing intermediate goods and final products,
it is found that in the intermediate goods import market, my country’s
additional tariffs have caused an overall welfare loss of 91.192 billion US
dollars, while in the final product import market, my country’s additional
tariffs have increased the overall welfare by 376.8 million US dollars. increase.
Therefore, no matter from the perspective of importing companies or the
perspective of overall welfare changes, in the short term, Sino-US trade
disputes are detrimental to my country's overall welfare.
From the perspective of production network, Chapter VI
applies the endogenous production network model to the study of the impact of
tariff changes on the relationship between product prices and production
networks, and theoretically explores the impact of tariff increases on
production networks. Theoretical model research shows that the free choice of
suppliers by enterprises is the endogenous driving force of economic growth,
and whether it is an increase in taxation or an increase in supply chain
restrictions, it will lead to an equilibrium price increase and a shrinkage of
the supply chain, which will harm the economy. development of. Furthermore,
this chapter empirically combines China’s customs import and export data,
China’s additional tariffs list, China’s tariff data, and industry-level
monthly industrial producer ex-factory price index to construct monthly panel data on China’s imports and examine
the average tariffs of the industry and upstream industries. The impact of tax
rate changes on the prices of consumer goods and intermediate categories in the
production network. Research shows: First, in terms of consumer product prices,
an increase in tariffs will increase the ex-factory price index of the industry
in which industrial companies are located. Similarly, an increase in tariffs in
upstream industries will also increase the ex-factory price index of the
industry in which industrial companies are located; secondly, in terms of
intermediate products, the industry's tariffs will increase. There is no
significant impact on the intermediate products that companies can choose, and
the tariff impact of upstream industries will significantly reduce the
intermediate products that companies can choose. Therefore, through empirical
verification, we believe that the products produced by the industry and the
products subject to tariffs are of the same type, and the increase in import
tariffs for such products has eased the degree of domestic competition for the
product to a certain extent and expanded The demand for the products produced
by the industry increases the price of the products produced by the industry.
The increase in import tariffs on intermediate inputs used by the industry
means that the input costs of the industry will rise, and the prices of its
products will rise.
Chapter 7 focuses on the impact of Sino-US trade disputes on
the employment of Chinese enterprises. This chapter uses the characteristics of
different tariff rates imposed on products at different industry levels to
construct indicators at the industry level to measure the extent of tariff
shocks in this industry and upstream industries; further, it decomposes the net
growth of corporate employment into corporate employment creation and corporate
employment destruction. , From the perspective of changes in the employment
structure, discuss the impact of tariff shocks on corporate employment
channels. The study found that, first of all, although the increase in final
product tariffs is conducive to protecting the employment of domestic companies
in the industry, the impact of intermediate product tariffs has a greater
effect on the employment reduction of manufacturing companies. Using the
effective protection rate to characterize tariff shocks found that, in terms of
net effect, China's tariff increase will harm the employment of domestic
manufacturing enterprises, while research on the United States' tariff increase
shows that tariff shocks are harmful to the US job market. Therefore, in the
context of the continuous deepening of the global industrial division of labor,
the economic and trade relationship between China and the United States is
"peace will benefit both, and struggle will hurt both." Secondly, by
analyzing the mechanism of the impact of tariff shocks on the employment of
manufacturing enterprises, it is found that the reduction in labor wages caused
by tariff shocks is the direct cause of the negative impact on the employment
of manufacturing enterprises, and the tariff shocks have an impact on corporate
asset growth and asset net profit. The impact is the root cause. Finally, the
impact of industry tariff shocks on enterprises in the
industry is mostly concentrated in the production process, resulting in
employment changes for ordinary employees and R&D personnel, while senior
corporate managers, especially those of listed companies, are less affected by
tariff shocks; In addition, more open regions are more affected by tariff
shocks, and the free movement of labor is conducive to alleviating the negative
effects of tariff shocks. Therefore, from the perspective of production
networks and employment changes, it can be found that the Sino-US trade dispute
is still harmful and unhelpful in the medium and long term.
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