黄河三角洲在三角洲湿地研究中具有特殊的地位，已成为近年来三角洲湿地研究的热点地区。为了使黄河三角洲退化的湿地得以恢复，自2002年起开展湿地恢复工程。尽管目前恢复已经取得了初步成效，但湿地恢复规模的确定始终缺乏合理的方法，如何确定最大最合理的湿地潜在恢复规模，成为湿地恢复工程是否能够持续进行以及生物多样性恢复和发挥湿地生态系统自身功能的关键。本研究以遥感学、景观生态学、统计学等多学科理论为指导，以野外监测、实验室分析、遥感解译为手段，利用1989年、2000年和2010年三个时期的遥感影像，及近十年来野外监测的数据，初步核算黄河三角洲淡水湿地潜在恢复规模。主要研究内容与结论为：（1）综合利用遥感影像提取、鸟类生境适宜性评价、湿地网络水系连通性原理三种方法，立足于提高湿地恢复工程的合理性，确定淡水湿地潜在恢复规模；生态学上普遍认为初始的状态就是最好的状态，从这个观点出发，本文分别将2000年和1989年作为研究湿地恢复规模的初始状态：即基于2000年淡水湿地面积的近期目标和基于1989年淡水湿地面积的中长期目标。（2）运用GIS提取黄河三角洲1989年、2000年和2010年三个时期的湿地类型分布，并通过转移矩阵对三个时期的黄河三角洲湿地类型动态变化过程进行分析，得到不同湿地类型的动态转移过程，重点分析淡水湿地类型的转移过程；利用Fragstats对黄河三角洲湿地的景观指数计算，以此为根据初步计算分别基于2000年和1989年的淡水湿地恢复规模为54766.33公顷和50626.42公顷。（3）基于黄河三角洲湿地类型分布的基础上，建立鸟类生境适宜度量指标体系，主要包括自然因子、生物因子和人为干扰因子三个方面。自然因子方面由于黄河三角洲湿地海拔较低，地势低平，所以不考虑DEM和坡度对鸟类生境的影响，通过水文因子来表达；生物因子主要通过景观类型和植被信息来反映；人为干扰因子则是由研究区内建筑用地的信息来反映。通过构建栖息地适宜性指数（HSI）模型，分别评价1989年、2000年和2010年的黄河三角洲湿地鸟类的生境适宜性，并通过鸟类生境适宜性来分别确定基于2000年和1989年的淡水湿地恢复规模为37229.74公顷和36112.43公顷。（4）提取黄河三角洲湿地现有的河道、沟渠、潮沟等作为水系的内容，通过最短路径法进行优化，计算现有水系与1989年、2000年和2010年提取的淡水湿地斑块构成的湿地水系网络的连通性，得到1989年的水系连通性 =0.76，2000年的水系连通度 =0.5，2010年的水系连通度 =0.31；在此基础上分别计算基于2000年和1989年的淡水湿地恢复规模为49213.81公顷和45432.92公顷。（5）综合考虑湿地类型动态变化，鸟类生境适宜性以及水系连通性确定黄河三角洲的淡水湿地潜在恢复规模。经过叠加后得到最终的黄河三角洲淡水湿地的潜在恢复规模分别是基于2000年近期恢复目标的33963.81公顷和基于1989年中长期恢复目标的31165.83公顷。

The Yellow River Delta has a special position among China's coastal wetlands, it has become a hot research area of coastal wetlands in recent years. The wetland restoration project has been carried out since 2002 in order to restore the degraded wetland in Yellow River Delta. Although the restoration has made some preliminary achievements, there is still no reasonable approach to determine the restoration scale; how to reasonably distribute the water volume and determine the maximum reasonable restoration scale, have become the key to sustainability of the wetland restoration projects and restoration of biodiversity and fulfillment of wetland ecosystem functions Based on multi-disciplinary theory including remote sensing, landscape ecology, and statistics and the remote sensing images in 1989, 2000 and 2010 and field monitoring data over the past decade, the potential restoration scale of freshwater wetland in the Yellow River Delta was preliminarily estimated by means of field monitoring, laboratory analysis, remote sensing interpretation. The main contents and conclusions are as followings:(1) Aiming to improve the rationality of the restoration projects, the potential restoration scale of freshwater wetlands was determined based on the extraction of remote sensing images, bird habitat suitability assessment and wetland network water system connectivity. It is generally believed that the initial the state is the best state in the ecological theory; Based on this viewpoint, the freshwater wetland area in 1989 and 2000 was set as the initial state of the research on the freshwater wetland restoration scale, i.e., the freshwater wetland area in 2000 was set as the short-term goal and that in 1989 as the long-term goal.(2) The wetland type distribution maps of the Yellow River Delta in 1989, 2000 and 2010 were extracted with ArcGIS and ENVI; the transfer matrix was used to analyze the dynamic changes of wetland types among the three periods. The conversion among various wetland types was identified and the special stress was put on the conversion of freshwater wetlands. The landscape indices of the Yellow River Delta were calculated with Fragstats4.0, according to which the freshwater wetland restoration scale was estimated to be 54766.33 hectares in 2000 and 50626.42 hectares in 1989.(3) Based on the wetland type distribution map of the Yellow River Delta, the bird habitat suitability assessment system was constructed, mainly including the natural factors, biological factors and human disturbance factors. Since the altitude is generally very low in the Yellow River Delta, the natural factors were only represented with the hydrological factors; the biological factors were mainly represented with the landscape type and vegetation information; the human disturbance factors were reflected with the information on built-up area. The habitat suitability index (HSI) model was constructed and then used to assess the bird habitat suitability of the Yellow River Delta in 1989, 2000 and 2010, according to result of which the freshwater wetland restoration scale was estimated to be 37229.74 hectares in 2000 and 36112.43 hectares in 1989.(4) The current watercourses, ditches, tidal creek in the Yellow River Delta was extracted and then optimized with the shortest path method; then the researchers calculated the connectivity between the current water systems with wetland network consisting of the freshwater restoration patches in 1989, 2000 and 2010; the result indicated that the connectivity was 0.76 in 1989, 0.5 in 2000 and 0.31 in 2010, respectively. Based on the result above, the freshwater wetland restoration scale was estimated to be 49213.81 hectares in 2000 and 45432.92 hectares in 1989, respectively.(5) The potential restoration scale of freshwater wetland in the Yellow River Delta was estimated based on the comprehensive consideration of the dynamic changes of wetland types, changes in landscape indices, bird habitat suitability and water system connectivity. The short-term and long-term freshwater wetland restoration scales were estimated to be 33963.81 hectares 31165.83 hectares, respectively.