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中文题名:

 中国宏观税负核算与分析    

姓名:

 何宗樾    

论文语种:

 中文    

学科代码:

 0714    

学科专业:

 统计学    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 经济学硕士    

学位类型:

 学术学位    

学位年度:

 2015    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 经济与工商管理学院    

研究方向:

 宏观经济统计分析    

第一导师姓名:

 宋旭光    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学统计学院    

提交日期:

 2015-06-18    

答辩日期:

 2015-05-21    

外文题名:

 ACCOUNTING AND ANALYSIS OF CHINESE MACRO TAX BURDEN    

中文摘要:
在2009年美国商业杂志《Forbes》公布的全球税收痛苦指数排名中,中国得分159,排位于法国之后,以第二名的高税负引发相当的热议。中国的税负水平究竟有多高?是否已经对中国经济增长产生了显著的抑制作用?要客观地评断这两个问题,必须对中国宏观税负有一个深入认识和系统分析。本文的主体内容如下:首先,在关于宏观税负水平测算的研究中,本文通过梳理中国历次税制改革以及政府收入的估算方法,提出了一个相对可比的宏观税负测算方法。并在新的测算方程与分析框架下,对不同口径的中国宏观税负重新进行了估算。其次,在国际比较研究中,本文基于经济合作与发展组织OECD、国际货币基金组织IMF等国际组织所提供的国际可比的宏观税负数据资料,综合利用横截面数据模型、静态面版数据模型以及动态面板数据模型对世界主要国家的样本数据进行实证研究,深入分析宏观税负与经济发展关系的国别差异。此外,还以中国为例,利用内生经济增长模型以及扩展的拉弗曲线建立了实证模型,探究中国宏观税负与经济发展的相关关系,并测算了适应中国经济发展的最优宏观税负。本文的主要结论如下:第一,根据测算公式政府收入=财政收入+预算外资金收入+政府性基金收入(含有土地使用权出让收入)+社会保险基金收入+国有资本经营收入,对中国大口径的宏观税负进行重新的估算,结果显示该口径与中、小口径宏观税负的整体趋势类似,均呈现出“V”字形特征,转折点出现在1994年税制改革前后。现阶段,不同口径的宏观税负水平均表现出稳步上升的态势。第二,通过国际比较,发现与OECD包含社会保障缴款的宏观税负相比,中国大口径宏观税负已经接近或略高于OECD国家的平均水平;而与OECD不包含社会保障缴款的宏观税负相比,中国中口径宏观税负则低于OECD国家的平均宏观税负水平。最后,基于中国经验的实证研究中,认为中国中、小口径的宏观税负现阶段仍处于合理可控的区间范围内,而大口径的宏观税负则趋向高位。
外文摘要:
China got a score of 159 and ranked No.2 after French in the global tax misery index published by Forbes of America in 2009, which initiates intense discussion. So how high is the level of tax burden and whether it has significant damping effect on the Chinese economic growth? It is necessary to have an independent understanding and systematical analysis about Chinese macro tax burden to judge these two questions objectively.The major contents are as follows. At the study of macro tax burden calculation, this paper presents a relatively comparable macro tax burden calculation method by combing through previous Chinese tax reform and estimation methods of government revenue. And on this basis, we have amended the original macro tax burden accounting framework. Using the new calculation formula and analytical framework, we recalculated different caliber macro tax burden in China. Moreover, in international comparison study, through the comprehensive utilization of cross-sectional data model, static and dynamic panel data model, we have taken empirical research based on internationally comparable macro tax burden data provided by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international organizations. Ultimately, this paper summarizes the classic tax theory and economic growth theory. Take China, we establish empirical models based on endogenous economic growth model and the extended Laffer curve to analyze the correlation between China’s macro tax burden and economic development. Meanwhile, the paper also estimates the optimal macro tax burden in China.The main conclusions are as follows. Firstly, according to calculation formula: Government revenue = Revenue + Extra-budgetary income + Government fund income + Social insurance fund income + State capital fund income (including revenue from land sales), we re-estimates the China’s large-diameter macro tax burden, and the results show a similar trend in the medium caliber and small-caliber tax burden, both showed ‘V’ shape characteristics, and the turning point for the curve came in 1994 after the tax reform. At present, different caliber macro tax burden have shown a steady upward trend. Secondly, by international comparison, it is founded that compared with the OECD macro tax burden which including the social security contributions, Chinese overall caliber macro tax burden is already slightly above average of OECD countries; whereas compared with the OECD macro tax burden excluding social security contributions, China’s medium caliber macro tax burden is significantly lower than the average of OECD countries. Finally, in the empirical research of China, the paper found that small and medium-caliber stage of China’s macro tax burden are still in a reasonable range of controllable range, but macro tax burden of large diameter located high.
参考文献总数:

 81    

作者简介:

 何宗樾,北京师范大学2012级经济统计学硕士研究生。[1] Xuguang Song, Zongyue He. The Keqiang Index: A New Benchmark for China’s Development. Social Indicators Research, September 2014.[2] 何宗樾, 徐滇庆. 个人所得税与基尼系数的动态关系及其政策启示 [J]. 经济学家, 2014(10).[3] 赵楠, 王辛睿, 何宗樾. 中国产业结构的行业关联度研究 [J]. 经济    

馆藏号:

 硕020208/1503    

开放日期:

 2015-06-18    

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