通货膨胀率，贸易和GDP之间的关系一直是经济学家需要研究的经常性问题。本文通过在亚洲工厂区域的七个产品组中引入阈值效应模型的最小二乘估计来解决该问题。它详细阐述了中间贸易的含义，并应用这一机制来解释该地区密集交换的一些产品集团的进出口关系。区域供应链的现状和加工贸易中相关国家的经济发展鼓励了最初的想法。 研究内容分为五章。本文第一章阐述了作者选择亚洲工厂国家作为研究对象的原因。它概述了研究背景及其目标和假设。第二章收集了以往有关贸易和国家福利，纵向专业化以及通货膨胀率对这些实体的影响的文献。它展示了先前研究人员关于该主题的发现，他们的论点和局限性。第三章介绍了作者用于发现模型变量之间统计联系的计量经济学机制。它实施了布鲁斯·E·汉森（Bruce E. Hansen）的面板数据阈值模型，通货膨胀率作为决定自主变量（贸易开放度）和因变量（进口超过出口比率）之间联系多样化的制度的门槛。在第四章中，实证结果与作者对每个发现的讨论一起展示。从结果中可以看出，通货膨胀率通过-0.254751和5.860994的双重门槛效应将亚洲工厂的国家分为三种不同的制度。进出口之间存在显着的积极联系;进口和国内生产总值得到了实证支持，提交人设法描述了每个政权的这种联系的特征。对于通货膨胀率低于-0.254751的第一制度国家，其进出口价值一起下降的趋势。虽然他们有可能在第二个（通货膨胀率高于-0.254751但低于5.860994）和第三个政权（通货膨胀率高于5.860994）一起增加，但这两个制度的程度和方向不同。第五章是结论和研究局限。 本文设法为通货膨胀率和贸易的学术研究做出贡献。但是，没有缺陷和限制就没有出现。预计未来的研究有助于改善本文模型机制和数据处理的弊端。

The relationship between inflation rate, trade and GDP has been a recurrent issue to be examined by economists. This paper approach the problem by introducing the least square estimation of the threshold effect model over seven product groups in the area of Factory Asia. It elaborated the meaning of intermediary trade and applied this mechanism in order to explain the relationship between the import and export of some product groups which were exchanged intensively in the area. The initial idea was encouraged by the current situation of regional supply chain and the economic development of the countries connected in the processing trade. The research content was presented in five chapters. Chapter I of this paper explained the reason why the author chose the countries in Factory Asia as the research subjects. It gave an overview of the research background as well as its aims and hypothesis. Chapter II collected the previous literatures related to the issues of trade and national welfares, vertical specialization, and the impact of inflation rates on these entities. It displayed the findings of prior researchers on the topic, their arguments and limitations. Chapter III presented the econometrics mechanism that the author applied to find the statistical links among the model’s variables. It implemented the thresholds model for panel data by Bruce E. Hansen with inflation rate as the thresholds that decided the regimes in which the links between the independent variable (trade openness) and dependent variable (import over export ratio) diversified. In Chapter IV, the empirical results were displayed along with the author’s discussion for each finding. From the results, it was suggested that the inflation rates categorized the countries in Factory Asia into three different regimes via the double threshold effects of -0.254751 and 5.860994 of inflation rate. A significantly positive link between import and export; import and GDP had been empirically supported, and the author had managed to describe the characteristics of this link for each regime. For the countries in the first regime, which had the inflation rate lower than -0.254751, there was a tendency that their import and export values decreased together. While there was a tendency for them to increase together in the second (inflation rate higher than -0.254751 but lower than 5.860994) and the third regime (inflation rate higher than 5.860994), but the extent amount and direction were different for these two regimes. Chapter V was the conclusion and the research limitations. This paper managed to contribute for the academic research of inflation rate and trade. However, it did not appear without flaws and limitations. It was expected that the future researches could help to improve the drawbacks in model mechanism and data procession of this paper.