Human-wild animal conflict refers to any interaction between humans and wild animals that may have a negative impact on humans and/or wild animals. With the increase of the population and the number of domestic animals on a global scale, and the continuous occupation of wild animal habitats by humans, the conflicts between humans and wild animals have become more frequent and intense. In many areas, including Pakistan, the conflict between humans and wild animals has become a serious challenge to biodiversity conservation and a serious threat to human livelihoods.

The mountainous area of northern Pakistan is an area rich in biodiversity, home to snow leopards and many other rare and endangered wild animals. However, the survival and protection of these species are under pressure from factors such as population and livestock increase, land use/cover changes, and habitat degradation. At the same time, due to increased competition with wild animals for food and living space, local residents are also facing threats from wild animals, especially carnivores such as snow leopards and wolves, because these animals not only prey on domestic animals, but sometimes also Will harm humans.

In order to alleviate the conflict between humans and wild animals and realize the harmonious coexistence between humans and wild animals, this study was carried out in the mountainous areas of northern Pakistan, with the purpose of investigating the current situation and temporal and spatial trends of conflicts between humans and wild animals in the area; exploring the conflicts between humans and wild animals There are many deep-seated reasons for the social, economic and ecological aspects of the conflict, because understanding these regional reasons behind the conflict is vital and necessary to alleviate these conflicts.

The study investigated the predation of snow leopards and wolves in the two communities of Shimshal and Khunjerab located in the buffer zone of Khunjerab National Park, and analyzed its temporal and spatial trends and socioeconomic factors. The results of a questionnaire survey involving 186 local households showed that Shimshal communities in remote areas have a large number of livestock and suffer more from predation. The number of livestock in Shimshal community was significantly higher than that in Khunjerab community (P<0.05), and the predation rate of livestock by carnivores was also significantly higher than that in Khunjerab community (P<0.05). In 2017, the Shimshal community suffered an economic loss of approximately US$76,062 due to predation of livestock, while the economic loss of the Khunjerab community was approximately US$34,174. Due to the remote and closed location, the Shimshal community lacks suitable channels to enter the mainstream market, making it more dependent on animal husbandry for its livelihood. In the Shimshal community, large herds of livestock are more susceptible to predation by wild carnivores. In contrast, due to convenient transportation, the Khunjerab community has more diversified sources of income and can obtain income from tourism and other sources. Therefore, the conflict between people and wildlife in Shimshal community is more tense and urgently needs to be alleviated. Local governments need to implement financial compensation and related policies to alleviate conflicts and promote sustainable development.

Land use/cover changes have a great potential impact on biodiversity conservation and may become an important factor leading to conflicts between humans and wildlife. This study uses satellite imagery data from 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008 and 2018 to assess the land use/cover changes in Khunjerab National Park and its buffer zone, a drought-fragile but also a biodiversity hotspot in the past four decades. . The results of the study show that from 1978 to 2018, the Khunjerab National Park and its buffer zone have undergone huge land use/cover changes. In the past 40 years, the area of barren and barren land has increased sharply from 408182 ha to 511110 ha, with a growth rate of 25.22%. The snow/glacier cover area has been reduced from 419,800 ha to 293,900 ha, a reduction of 29.99%. The grassland area increased from 28,600 ha to 47,200 ha, an increase of 65.04%. The water area increased from 1380 ha to 2720 ha, an increase of 97.10%. Similarly, the area of agricultural land increased from 208 ha to 2,400 ha, an increase of 1053.85%; the area of construction land increased from 30 ha in 1978 to 840 ha in 2018, an increase of 2700%. At the same time, in the past 40 years, the number of livestock has increased from 5850 to 16,233, an increase of 177.49%; the population has increased from 1,414 to 3,899, an increase of 175.74%. Although the area of grassland has increased in the past four decades, the area of grassland only accounts for a small part (about 5%) of the study area. Moreover, especially in the Shimshal community, due to the increase in population and livestock numbers, the per capita grassland area decreased from 35.20 ha in 1978 to 17.44 ha in 2018, and the average grassland area per animal decreased from 7.16 ha to 3.22 ha. The increase in construction land and agricultural land, combined with the decrease in per capita and per capita grassland area, has put more pressure on limited grassland resources, and is more likely to trigger competition between humans and domestic animals and wild carnivores for living space in the area. And the resulting conflict.

本研究采用最大熵模型（MaxEnt model），利用野外调查数据和红外相机捕捉数据，对研究区域雪豹的潜在分布进行了预测。在研究区域共采集了85个雪豹出现点数据。基于雪豹出现点数据及10个相关的生态地理变量对雪豹栖息地进行适宜性评估。结果表明：AUC的值为0.914，表明本研究雪豹栖息地适宜性评估模型具有很好的预测性能。Jackknife测试表明Bioclim2是预测雪豹潜在分布区的最重要变量。在最大熵模型中，贡献率较大的变量分别是日均温（51.7%）、年均温（18.5%）、坡向（14.2%）和土地覆盖（6.9%）。雪豹的适宜生境海拔范围在2721~4825 m之间，平均海拔3796.9±432 m。在海拔较低范围的适宜生境也是人类居住区和基础设施建设的区域。基于最大熵模型，预测研究区有859 km²（约10%）的区域是雪豹的适宜生境，而剩下的7723 km²（约90%）是雪豹不适宜或非雪豹的生境。2008年被人类侵占的雪豹适宜生境面积为1506 ha，到2018年增加到3240 ha，增加了115%。由于雪豹的适宜栖息地与人类活动具有很高的空间重叠及人类不断侵入雪豹适宜栖息地，这可能引发更加严重的人与雪豹之间的冲突。

本研究还分析了Khunjerab国家公园及其缓冲区正在实施的野生动物保护项目中所存在的主要问题，而这些问题也可能导致和加剧了该地区人与野生动物之间的冲突。在巴基斯坦北部的Khunjerab国家公园，为了增加社区收入并帮助保护和维持该地区的生态系统，引入了野生动物狩猎项目(trophy hunting)和开发旅游业。虽然这些举措带来了经济效益，但也付出了一定的生态环境代价，因为狩猎和旅游带来了不同的生态环境问题。该地区的野生动物狩猎并没有根据科学的种群数据来确定野生有蹄动物的狩猎额度，因此并不利于增加野生有蹄类动物或食肉动物的数量，反而因为食肉动物捕食野生有蹄动物、减少了狩猎对象，而加剧了当地居民对食肉动物的负面态度。虽然该地区的大众旅游有很大的发展，但是由于产生污染并破坏了生态系统，对野生动物产生了负面影响。因此，建议停止该地区的狩猎活动，将大众旅游转变为生态旅游，既可以为当地社区增加经济收入，也可以帮助改善生态系统和保护野生动物，这可能成为该地区缓解人与野生动物冲突的一个可持续的解决方案。

该研究还从数据库（Web of Science, Google Scholar, Science Direct and PubMed）中选取和系统评阅了1994年至2018年期间发表的共30篇有关人与雪豹冲突的文献，以评估这方面的研究和管理现状。通过系统性评估，该研究识别出目前研究中所存在的关键研究空白和未来研究的方向，后续研究需要更多地调查人与雪豹冲突的社会和经济因素。该研究表明，通过直接的或基于社区的干预措施、经济补偿措施和家畜管理政策对缓解人与雪豹冲突有较高的有效性。对于目前所普遍推荐实行的缓解人与雪豹冲突的策略和行动，由于缺乏合理的数据支持，仍需要进一步评估现有缓解方案的有效性。建议未来的研究工作应特别关注人与雪豹冲突地区的草场管理，以期最终使人类和雪豹在其栖息地得以共存。

综合本研究的各项结果，使得我们加深了对巴基斯坦北部山区人和野生动物冲突现状及各种深层次原因的认识。有一点现在已经变得很明显了：很有必要在研究人与野生动物冲突这一问题时综合考虑草地管理和土地利用规划。本研究所揭示出来的有关人和野生动物冲突背后复杂的社会、经济和生态原因，以及可能的缓解和应对措施，都表明需要一套整体的、跨部门的综合协调途径才能有效地缓解人和野生动物冲突这一问题。本研究的这些结果和结论也会对其它类似地区解决人和野生动物冲突问题具有借鉴意义。

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC), any interaction between humans and wildlife that results in negative impacts on human and/or wildlife, has been increasing across the world with increases in human population, livestock population, and human’s encroachment to wildlife habitats. HWC has emerged as a big challenge for biodiversity conservation and threat to human livelihood in many places, including Pakistan.

Northern Pakistan is a region of rich biodiversity and is home to Snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and many other rare and precious wildlife species. However, the conservation of the endangered wildlife in this region has been facing pressures from increases in human population and livestock population, land use/cover change, degradation of wildlife habitats, etc. Meanwhile, due to increasing competition between human and wildlife for food and space, the local residents are also facing threats from wildlife, particularly those carnivores such as Snow leopard and wolves (Canis lupus) that not only predate on livestock, but also hurt people occasionally.

In order to mitigate HWCs and seek for co-existence between human and wildlife, I conducted this study in Northern Pakistan to investigate the spatial and temporal trends of HWCs and to explore the socio-economic and ecological causes for HWCs in this region. Understanding the site-specific underlying causes for HWCs is essential and necessary for mitigating HWCs. 

The temporal and spatial trends in livestock depredation by Snow leopard and wolves were investigated in the two communities (Shimshal and Khunjerab) living in the buffer zone of Khunjerab National Park (KNP). A questionnaire survey involving 186 households located in these communities revealed that Shimshal community lying in the remote region had large number of livestock and suffered the brunt of depredation loss. Significantly (p < 0.05), more number of livestock was present in Shimshal valley than in Khunjerab valley. Similarly, livestock depredation by carnivores was significantly higher in Shimshal comparing to Khunjerab valley (p < 0.05). The economic losses due to depredation of domestic livestock were estimated to be around US$ 76062 in Shimshal, compared to US$34174 in Khunjerab in 2017. Due to remote and isolated location, the Shimshal valley lacked proper access to mainstream markets, and thus depended much heavier on livestock for livelihood. The large livestock herds were prone to depredation by wild carnivores in Shimshal. In contrast, because of easy accessibility, tourism and availability of other income opportunities, the livelihood was more diversified in Khunjerab valley. Thus, the HWC was more prevalent and intense in Shimshal valley and required urgent mitigation. Monetary compensation and relevant policy measures were recommended to mitigate this conflict for sustainable development.

Land use/cover changes have large potential impacts on conservation and could cause HWCs. This study assessed the land use /land cover changes in the past 40 years in this fragile arid environment which is a biodiversity hotspot. The data for this study were obtained through satellite imageries of 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008 and 2018. The results reveal that enormous changes occurred in the study area from 1978 to 2018. The barren land cover was found to increase drastically by 25.22% from 408182 to 511110 ha in the last four decades (1978 to 2018). In contrast, the snow/glacier cover area reduced greatly from 419800 to 293900 ha, exhibiting a change of -29.99%. The agriculture area increased by 1053.85% from 208 to 2400 ha. The rangeland area increased from 28600 to 47200 ha showing an increase of 65.04 %. The water bodies increased from 1380 to 2720 ha, exhibiting an increase of 97.10%. Similarly, the buildup area increased by 2700% from just 30 ha in 1978 to 840 ha in 2018. Furthermore, the number of livestock increased from 5850 to 16233, revealing an increase of 177.49% in the last four decades. The human population increased from 1414 in 1978 to 3899 individuals in 2018, showing an increase of 175.74%. Although the rangeland increased as well, the rangeland accounted for only a very small portion of the study area (only about 5%). Furthermore, the rangeland per capita and per livestock decreased from 1978 to 2018, particularly in Shimshal valley, with increase in human and livestock populations. The increased built-up land and agriculture land, plus the decreased rangeland per capita and per livestock put further pressure on the limited available rangeland resources, creating a conflicting situation with the wild carnivores in the region.

MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of Snow leopard in the study area, employing the presence-only data from field surveys and camera trappings. A total of 85 occurrence records were sampled from the study area. The Model used the occurrence records and the ten environmental variables obtained to predict the suitable habitats for Snow leopard. The results show that the value of AUC was 0.914, indicating an excellent model performance for predicting the potential distribution. The Jackknife test represents that Bioclim 2 was the most important variable to predict the potential distribution. The variables with the higher contribution in the MaxEnt model were the mean diurnal temperature range (51.7%), Temperature annual range (18.5%), Aspect (14.2%), and Land cover (6.9%). The suitable habitat was at elevation ranging from 2721 m to 4825 m above sea level, with a mean elevation of 3796.9±432 m above sea level. This lower elevation was also where the human settlements and infrastructure development existed. The MaxEnt modelling predicted 859 km² (about 10%) of the study area as highly suitable habitat for Snow leopards in the study area. The remaining 7723 km² (about 90%) of the study area was less suitable or even unsuitable for the snow leopard in this region. The human encroachment (human settlements and agriculture) covered 1506 hectare in 2008 which increased to 3240 hectares in 2018. This shows an enormous change of 115% of the most suitable habitat into human encroached area. Thus, there was high overlap between Snow leopard’s suitable habitats and human activities, which may cause conflicts between Snow leopard and human beings. 

Through the study in the KNP and its buffer zone, I identified major issues in the ongoing conservation program in this region. Trophy hunting and mass tourism were introduced to KNP, northern Pakistan to generate income for the community and help conserve and sustain the ecosystem in the region. These initiatives have provided economic benefits, but only at the cost of other environmental problems, as both trophy hunting and mass tourism have resulted in various ecological issues. Trophy hunting has not been based on scientific population data and has thus not helped increase the number of wild ungulates or wild carnivores. Although mass tourism has increased enormously in this region, it has damaged the ecosystem through pollution generation and negatively impacted wildlife. We suggest that trophy hunting should be stopped, and mass tourism should be shifted to ecotourism as a sustainable solution to help improve the ecosystem, while generating income for the local community. Further studies are recommended to investigate ecotourism as a potential mitigation measure for the conservation issues in this region.

A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the current state of scholarship about human-Snow leopard conflicts (HSC) and their management. The peer-reviewed literature on HSCs from 1994 to 2018 were selected from databases (Web of Science, Google Scholar, Science Direct and PubMed), and a total of 30 articles were identified. This review identified key research gaps and future research requirements in HSCs. Studies are required to investigate the social and ecological context of HSCs. This review also identified that compensation programs and livestock management strategies had high success rates for mitigating HSCs either through direct or community-managed interventions. Further research is required to evaluate the efficacy of existing HSC mitigation strategies, many of which, while recommended, lack proper support. We suggest the focus of future work specifically in rangelands management for the mitigation of HSC, thus ultimately fostering a co-existence between human and snow leopard in its habitat region.

The combined findings from this study enhance our understandings about the current status of and various causes for HWCs in the region of Northern Pakistan. The necessity to integrate rangeland management and land use planning in HWC as an area of study is now apparent. The complex social, economic and ecological issues and solutions identified in this research emphasize for a holistic and cross-sectoral approach for mitigation of HWCs. These findings and recommendations can also be applied to other similar regions to help resolve the issues of HWCs.