本文以2002年至2023年广西对东盟国家农产品出口数据为基础，构建拓展的贸易引力模型，对该省农产品出口到东盟国家的影响因素展开深入分析，并进一步测算各成员国的贸易潜力。实证结果表明，广西人均GDP、东盟国家的人均GDP、东盟国家人口数量以及广西农产品生产效率对广西省农产品出口贸易具有显著正向作用，距离变量则呈现显著负相关，东盟国家对外贸易开放程度影响不显著。在出口贸易潜力方面，除马来西亚属于“贸易潜力再造型”之外，其他东盟国家均属于“贸易潜力开拓型”。最后，本文围绕对接RCEP新规则提出了一系列建议，包括打造优势产品供应链、挖掘具有RCEP潜力的产业、鼓励科技创新等，旨在促进和推动广西与东盟国家的农产品贸易合作。

Based on the export data of agricultural products from Guangxi to ASEAN countries from 2002 to 2023, this paper employs an expanded gravity model of trade to conduct an in-depth analysis of the influencing factors and trade potential of Guangxi's agricultural exports to ASEAN countries. The research findings indicate that per capita GDP of Guangxi, per capita GDP of ASEAN countries, population size of ASEAN countries, and agricultural production efficiency in Guangxi positively affect the agricultural export trade of Guangxi Province, while the distance variable exhibits a significant negative correlation. The degree of trade openness of ASEAN countries has an insignificant impact. Regarding export trade potential, except for Malaysia falling into the "trade potential reconstruction" category, other ASEAN countries belong to the "trade potential expansion" category. Finally, this paper proposes a series of suggestions around aligning with the new rules of the RCEP, including building supply chains for advantageous products, exploring industries with RCEP potential, and promoting technological innovation, aiming to further promote agricultural trade cooperation between Guangxi and ASEAN countries.