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中文题名:

 深圳市暴雨洪涝灾害机动车损失时空格局研究    

姓名:

 潘亚峰    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 中文    

学科代码:

 0705Z3    

学科专业:

 自然灾害学    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 理学硕士    

学位类型:

 学术学位    

学位年度:

 2019    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 地理科学学部    

第一导师姓名:

 徐伟    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学地理科学学部环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室    

提交日期:

 2018-12-20    

答辩日期:

 2018-12-04    

外文题名:

 On Spatio-temporal Patterns of Vehicle Loss in Shenzhen due to Rainstorm    

中文关键词:

 暴雨洪涝 ; 机动车 ; 时空格局 ; 深圳市    

中文摘要:
暴雨洪涝灾害是我国东部和南部地区最常见的自然灾害。由于特殊的自然地理环境和气象水文特征,以及城市规划与人口、资产高度密集等原因,深圳几乎每年都会暴发暴雨洪涝灾害,且造成的损失巨大。本文针对深圳市暴雨洪涝灾害造成的机动车损失,结合近年来不同区域的降雨量、各级别暴雨次数和机动车辆损失情况,系统分析了深圳市暴雨的时空格局,以及暴雨洪涝灾害造成机动车损失的时空特征,并对机动车损失的趋势进行了初步分析。论文的主要内容和研究结果如下: 1.分析深圳市降雨量和暴雨次数时空变化特征。深圳气象站的日降雨量数据结果显示, 2000—2017年深圳市的降水存在3—5年的周期, 2001、2008、2013和2016年为高值年,每年的4—9月为暴雨高频月。统计深圳各个区域96个降雨站点在2008—2016年暴雨发生次数,结果显示:(1)2008—2016年不同级别暴雨不同年份的差异较大,其中整体偏高年份为2008和2014年;(2)各区不同级别暴雨的发生次数差异较大,暴雨和大暴雨在全市分布较均匀,特大暴雨则主要分布在宝安和龙岗区的部分区域。 2.分析2008—2017年的机动车损失数据,包括机动车损失总数、全损数量和赔偿金额等。结果显示:(1)从时间上看,2008和2014年车辆损失数量最为显著,总赔偿金额与损失数量年际特征基本一致,但有逐年上升趋势;6月份损失车辆台数明显高于其他月份,但总赔偿金额方面5月份最为突出;(2)从空间上看,宝安区无论从受损机动车总量还是单位面积受损数量,以及单位面积赔偿金额方面,都是数量最多的,而盐田区最少。 3.分析不同级别暴雨和机动车损失各个指标的相关性。结果显示,机动车损失总数及赔偿主要与大暴雨和特大暴雨相关,而全损车辆数量则主要是受特大暴雨影响,且重点受局部特大暴雨影响。空间上来看,宝安区单位面积机动车损失总数和赔偿金额均明显高于其他区域,这表明宝安区是各种暴雨机动车辆损失最为集中区域,抗暴雨灾害能力相对较弱。 4.分析深圳各区和不同年份的机动车脆弱性指数,并分析各区的机动车水浸脆弱性趋势。总的来说,深圳市机动车辆的受灾总值最大年份为2008年,最大区域为宝安区,暴雨致灾因子总强度最大年份为2014年,受暴雨影响的最严重区域为福田区。整个深圳2008—2016年脆弱性指标较大年份为2008、2012和2013年,其中2008年主要因为强降雨的影响,2012主要受深圳地铁修建等基建导致数据统计本身的问题,而2013年则受到两者的共同作用。从脆弱性均值来看,宝安区脆弱性指数最高;从趋势来看,整个深圳市呈小幅下降趋势;宝安、罗湖、龙岗和盐田区脆弱性呈下降趋势,而南山和福田区呈上升趋势。
外文摘要:
Rainstorm and flood are the most common natural disasters in eastern and southern China. Due to the special natural geographical environment, meteorological and hydrological characteristics, as well as urban planning and population, high concentration of assets and other reasons, Shenzhen almost every year will erupt rainstorms and floods, which cause huge losses. Aiming at the loss of vehicles caused by rainstorms and floods in Shenzhen City, this paper systematically analyses the spatial and temporal pattern of rainstorms in Shenzhen City, and the characteristics of the loss of vehicles caused by rainstorms and floods, combining with the rainfall in different regions, the number of rainstorms at different levels and the loss of vehicles in recent years, and makes a preliminary analysis of the trend of the loss of vehicles. The main contents and research results are as follows: 1. To analyze spatial and temporal variations of rainstorms in Shenzhen. The results of daily rainfall data from Shenzhen Meteorological Station show that there is a 3-5 year cycle of rainfall in Shenzhen from 2000 to 2017, with the highest values in 2001, 2008, 2013 and 2016, and the high frequency monthly rainstorm from April to September in each year. Statistical analysis of the occurrence times of rainstorms at 96 rainfall stations in Shenzhen from 2008 to 2016 shows that: (1) there are great differences between different levels of rainstorms in years from 2008 to 2016, of which the overall higher years are 2008 and 2014; (2) the frequency of rainstorms at various levels in different districts are quite diverse, and the distributions of rainstorms and heavy rainstorms are more even in the whole city, while the extraordinarily heavy rainstorms are mainly distributed in some areas of Baoan and Longgang Districts. 2. To analyze the data of vehicle losses from 2008 to 2017, including the total number of vehicle losses, the total number of whole losses and the amount of compensation. The results show that: (1) in terms of time, the number of vehicle losses in 2008 and 2014 is the most significant, and the total compensation amount is basically consistent with the interannual characteristics of the loss amount, but there is an upward trend year by year; the number of vehicles loss in June is significantly higher than that in other months, but the total compensation amount is the most prominent in May; (2) Spatially, Baoan District is the most prominent in terms of the total number of vehicles damaged or unit area. The amount of accumulated damage and the amount of compensation per unit area are the largest, while Yantian District is the least. 3. To analyze the correlation between different levels of rainstorm and various indicators of vehicle losses. The results show that the total number of vehicle losses and compensation are mainly related to heavy rain and extraordinarily heavy rain, while the total number of vehicles is mainly affected by extraordinarily heavy rain, and mainly affected by local extraordinarily heavy rain. Spatially, the total number of vehicle losses per unit area and the amount of compensation in Baoan District are significantly higher than those in other districts, which shows that Baoan District is the most concentrated area of all kinds of vehicle losses which caused by heavy rain, and its ability to resist rainstorm disasters is relatively weak. 4. According to the built vehicle vulnerability index, to analyze the vehicle vulnerability of Shenzhen each district in different years, and to analyze the trend of vehicle water immersion vulnerability in each district. Generally speaking, the maximum year of the total disaster value of vehicles in Shenzhen is 2008, the largest area is Baoan District, the largest year of the total intensity of the rainstorm disaster-causing factors is 2014, and the most serious area affected by the rainstorm is Futian District. From 2008 to 2016, the higher vulnerability indexes of Shenzhen are in 2008, 2012 and 2013, in which 2008 is mainly due to the impact of heavy rainfall, 2012 is mainly due to the construction of Shenzhen Metro and other infrastructures leading to the problems of data statistics itself, while 2013 is affected by both. From the average vulnerability, Baoan District has the highest vulnerability index; from the trend, the whole Shenzhen City has a slight downward trend; Baoan, Luohu, Longgang and Yantian Districts have a downward trend, while Nanshan and Futian Districts have an upward trend.
参考文献总数:

 63    

馆藏号:

 硕0705Z3/19024    

开放日期:

 2019-12-31    

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