中国自然资源消耗持续增长，资源环境压力不断积累，与此同时，全球化进程面临新的挑战，地缘冲突加剧，贸易保护主义盛行，供应链风险日益凸显。准确核算自然资源数量、质量和价值，科学评估资源利用效率，系统分析资源供应链韧性，已成为优化资源配置、推动绿色发展、保障资源安全的重大现实需求。具体而言，自然资源核算是查清资源存量、流量、结构、创新管理方式的必要前提，资源利用效率评估可以反映经济活动的资源环境代价、指明资源节约方向，而供应链韧性研判则有助于预判风险因子、制定防范预案。三者共同构成了中国自然资源管理的核心议题。本研究拟构建“核算-效率-韧性”综合分析框架，以期从资源核算、利用评价和供应链韧性三个关键环节入手，分析中国自然资源利用面临的挑战，为推动资源节约型社会建设和供应链安全保障提供决策支持。

基于此，本研究建立了一个涵盖资源核算、效率评估和供应链韧性分析的综合研究框架。在资源核算方面，采用积累可用能分析方法，对2012-2020年中国自然资源利用的要素结构与系统进行了核算。在效率评估方面，从劳动力、资本、环境修复等方面，运用扩展可用能核算分析方法，对2012-2020年中国七大社会经济部门的资源消耗、环境影响和社会经济表现进行了全面评估；构建可用能转换系数（RECC）、扩展可用能转换系数（EECC）等指标，评估中国自然资源利用效率及可持续性。在供应链韧性分析方面，首先运用复杂网络分析、结构路径分析等方法，建立了自然资源利用的供应链网络模型，动态追踪资源流动，识别从生产到消费的中国内地供应链关键路径，其次分析自然资源全球供应链网络的关键节点，最后以锂资源为案例进行全产业链的供应链韧性分析。具体研究内容与结果如下：

（1）自然资源利用核算：本研究采用自然资源可用能核算的方法，对中国2012-2020年的资源利用进行了系统分析。通过核算中国社会七大部门的资源投入与产出，揭示了各部门之间资源流动的关系以及资源利用的时间演变规律。2012年中国社会总资源可用能投入为157.5 EJ，其中工业部门和转化部门占据社会总资源消费的一半以上。2012-2020年，中国总积累可用能由147.31 EJ增至179.13 EJ，资源消耗持续增长，尤其是能源转化部门，贡献了接近一半的增长。工业部门积累可用能显著增加，交通部门年均增长率达4.02%，第三产业年均增长4.44%，反映了这些领域的迅速发展。在能源消耗结构中，电力使用在多个部门显著增加，尤其是工业、交通和第三产业，而煤炭消耗有所减少，表明中国在转向更清洁、可持续的能源供应。第三产业部门增长迅速，已成为仅次于工业部门的第二大资源消费部门。

（2）自然资源利用效率评估：本研究从劳动力、资本、环境修复等方面，运用扩展可用能核算分析与评估方法，对2012-2020年中国七大社会经济部门的资源消耗、环境影响和社会经济表现进行了评估，并评估了自然资源利用的转化效率。结果表明，劳动力和资本的扩展可用能分析显示，虽然中国经济持续增长，但劳动力投入逐渐减少，反映了技术进步和自动化的影响。环境方面，2020年排放的可用能达9018.33 PJ，其中温室气体排放8111.82 PJ，凸显了减少温室气体排放的重要性。同时，环境修复成本的可用能从2012年的411.46 EJ增至2020年的441.63 EJ，显示出中国在环境治理方面持续的投入。各部门的扩展可用能载体结构差异较大，能源密集型部门环境修复成本占比较高，农业部门对自然资源依赖性较强，第三产业部门的劳动力占比较高。不同部门资源利用效率差异明显，采掘部门效率最高但呈下降趋势，第三产业与居民部门效率较低，转化部门效率有所提升，而交通运输效率则出现下降。本研究采用了资源可用能转换系数（RECC）、劳动力和资本可用能比率（RLCR）、资本能量投入与劳动力能量投入比率（LCR）等指标，评估了中国自然资源利用的可持续性。结果显示中国资源利用效率显著提升，特别是能源和原材料的高效利用。扩展可用能转换系数（EECC）的提高强调了能量损失率的降低和可持续性水平的提升。与其他国家（地区）的比较表明，中国在劳动力可用能转化能力方面已超过某些发达国家（地区），反映了生活水平的提升和健康的金融发展。同时，其对全球需求变化的敏感性凸显了在全球价值链中的重要性。

（3）自然资源利用的供应链韧性分析：本研究采用“宏观评估-典型分析”的研究思路，评估了中国自然资源利用供应链韧性。首先，在宏观层面上，从中国内地供应链和全球供应链两个视角入手，基于物质流分析和结构路径分析方法，系统评估了中国自然资源利用的关键部门与关键路径，研究清晰展示了各部门在供应链中的角色，其中14条由资本形成驱动，且主要与部门27（建筑）和13（非金属矿物制品）有关。同时，利用复杂网络等方法评估了中国整体与主要经济部门的全球供应链的韧性和风险点。其次，在微观层面上，选取了锂资源开展典型案例分析，通过梳理其供应链的上下游产业链条以及全球贸易网络，并通过复杂网络分析、攻击模型、TOPSIS方法和级联故障模型、链式因素分解等方法，评估供应链网络的韧性水平、关键节点与关键贸易关系，模拟分析不同扰动情景下的级联失效过程，从供应链整体结构和基本单元（节点间关系）两个视角，分析了供应链韧性驱动因素的演化情况。研究发现，2017-2021年间，中国锂资源的进出口量和价值呈现出快速增长的态势。中国对锂矿石、碳酸锂等锂资源上游产品的依赖度保持在较高水平，储能电池、三元正极材料等中下游产品的出口依赖度也呈现明显的上升趋势。节点韧性分析识别了矿石、动力电池、储能电池等关键节点，边韧性分析识别了澳大利亚矿石进口、智利和阿根廷碳酸锂进口等关键贸易关系。在模拟级联故障过程中，碳酸锂部门和磷酸铁锂部门的节点故障的传播速度最快且最广泛，存在快速“骨牌效应”的风险，发现供应链网络冗余度与节点间路径依赖度的下降是导致韧性下滑的主要原因。

综上所述，本研究从“核算-效率-韧性”三个关键维度，系统评估了中国自然资源利用的现状、效率与供应链韧性。研究建议在资源管理和环保政策制定时，应全面考虑经济活动中资本、劳动力流动及环境修复的影响；加强供应链网络建设和优化，尤其是上游资源的多元化渠道以及下游产品的全球市场开拓，提高抗风险能力；促进多个部门、多个产业链间协同合作，共享信息，推动技术创新和政策协调，提升整个供应链网络效率和韧性。本研究为优化资源配置、保障资源供应链安全提供了新视角和决策依据。

As China's consumption of natural resources continues to rise, the pressure on resources and the environment is mounting. Concurrently, the process of globalization is facing new challenges, including intensified geopolitical conflicts, prevalent trade protectionism, and increasing risks in supply chains. Accurately accounting for the quantity, quality, and value of natural resources, scientifically assessing resource utilization efficiency, and systematically analyzing the resilience of resource supply chains have become crucial for optimizing resource allocation, promoting green development, and ensuring resource security. Specifically, natural resource accounting is essential for clarifying the stock, flow, and structure of resources and innovating management methods. Efficiency assessment of resource utilization reflects the environmental cost of economic activities and directs conservation efforts, while supply chain resilience analysis aids in risk anticipation and contingency planning. Together, these form the core issues in China's natural resource management. This paper proposes a comprehensive analytical framework of "Accounting-Efficiency-Resilience" to examine the challenges faced by China in natural resource utilization, and provide decision support for promoting the construction of a resource-conserving society and ensuring supply chain security.

Based on this, the study establishes an integrated research framework encompassing resource accounting, efficiency assessment, and supply chain resilience analysis. In resource accounting, the accumulative exergy analysis method was employed to account for the element structure and system of China’s natural resource utilization from 2012 to 2020. In terms of efficiency assessment, the extended exergy accounting method was applied to comprehensively assess the resource consumption, environmental impact, and socio-economic performance of China’s seven major socio-economic sectors from 2012 to 2020; indices such as the Resource Exergy Conversion Coefficient (RECC) and Extended Exergy Conversion Coefficient (EECC) were developed to evaluate the efficiency and sustainability of China’s natural resource use. In the analysis of supply chain resilience, complex network analysis and structural path analysis methods were used to establish a network model of natural resource utilization, dynamically tracking resource flows and identifying key paths in domestic supply chains from production to consumption. Furthermore, the study analyzed critical nodes in overseas supply chains of natural resources, with lithium as a case study for a full industrial chain analysis of supply chain resilience. The specific study contents and results are as follows:

Natural Resource Utilization Accounting: This study used the natural resource exergy accounting method to systematically analyze China’s resource utilization from 2012 to 2020. By accounting for the resource inputs and outputs of China’s seven major social sectors, it revealed the relationships and temporal evolution in resource utilization across these sectors. In 2012, the total resource exergy input in Chinese society was 157.5 EJ, with the industrial and transformation sectors accounting for over half of the total resource consumption. From 2012 to 2020, China’s total accumulative exergy increased from 147.31 EJ to 179.13 EJ, reflecting a continuous growth in resource consumption, especially in the energy transformation sector, which contributed nearly half of this growth. The industrial sector showed a significant increase in accumulative exergy, with an annual growth rate of 4.02% in the transportation sector and 4.44% in the tertiary sector, reflecting rapid development in these areas. In terms of energy consumption structure, electricity use significantly increased across multiple sectors, particularly in industry, transportation, and the tertiary sector, while coal consumption decreased, indicating a shift towards cleaner, sustainable energy supplies. The tertiary sector grew rapidly and has become the second largest resource-consuming sector after the industrial sector.

Natural Resource Utilization Efficiency Assessment: This study used extended exergy accounting and assessment methods to evaluate the resource consumption, environmental impact, and socio-economic performance of China’s seven major socio-economic sectors from 2012 to 2020, as well as the transformation efficiency of natural resource utilization. The results showed that extended exergy analysis of labor and capital indicated that despite continuous economic growth, labor input gradually decreased, reflecting the impact of technological advancements and automation. In environmental terms, the exergy emitted in 2020 reached 9018.33 PJ, with greenhouse gas emissions at 8111.82 PJ, highlighting the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the exergy of environmental restoration costs increased from 411.46 EJ in 2012 to 441.63 EJ in 2020, demonstrating China’s continuous investment in environmental management. The extended exergy carrier structures varied significantly among sectors, with high environmental restoration costs in energy-intensive sectors, strong dependence on natural resources in the agricultural sector, and a high labor proportion in the tertiary sector. There were notable differences in resource utilization efficiency among sectors, with the highest efficiency in the extraction sector, though it showed a declining trend, while the tertiary and residential sectors had lower efficiency, and the transformation sector saw an improvement, with the transportation sector experiencing a decline. The study used indices such as the Resource Exergy Conversion Coefficient (RECC), the Labor and Capital Exergy Ratio (RLCR), and the Capital Energy Input to Labor Energy Input Ratio (LCR) to assess the sustainability of China’s natural resource utilization. The results indicated significant improvements in resource utilization efficiency, especially in the efficient use of energy and raw materials. The increase in the Extended Exergy Conversion Coefficient (EECC) emphasized the reduction in energy loss rates and the improvement in sustainability levels. Compared with other countries, China has surpassed some developed nations in terms of the exergy conversion ability of labor activities, reflecting improved living standards and healthy financial development. Additionally, its sensitivity to global demand changes underscored its importance in the global value chain.

Natural Resource Utilization Supply Chain Resilience Analysis: This study adopted a “macro-assessment and typical analysis” research approach to assess the resilience of China’s natural resource utilization supply chains. Initially, at the macro level, the study systematically evaluated the key sectors and paths of China’s natural resource utilization from domestic and overseas supply chain perspectives, using material flow analysis and structural path analysis methods. The study clearly demonstrated the roles of various sectors in the supply chain, with 14 key paths driven by capital formation, mainly related to sectors 27 (construction) and 13 (non-metallic mineral products). Using complex network methods, the study also assessed the resilience and risk points of China’s overall and major economic sectors' overseas supply chains. At the micro level, lithium was selected for a typical case analysis. By combing through its supply chain’s upstream and downstream industrial chains and global trade network, and using complex network analysis, attack models, TOPSIS methods, and cascading failure models, the study assessed the resilience level of the supply chain network, key nodes, and key trade relationships, and simulated different disturbance scenarios to analyze the cascading failure process. From the perspectives of overall supply chain structure and basic units (inter-node relationships), the study analyzed the evolutionary trends of supply chain resilience-driving factors. The study found that from 2017 to 2021, China’s import and export volume and value of lithium resources showed a rapid growth trend. China maintained a high level of dependence on upstream products such as lithium ore and lithium carbonate, and the export dependence of downstream products such as energy storage batteries and ternary cathode materials also showed a significant upward trend. Node resilience analysis identified critical nodes such as ore, power batteries, and energy storage batteries, and edge resilience analysis identified key trade relationships such as Australian ore imports, and lithium carbonate imports from Chile and Argentina. In simulating cascading failure processes, the lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate sectors experienced the fastest and most widespread node failures, posing a risk of a rapid “domino effect”. The study found that a decrease in supply chain network redundancy and inter-node path dependence were the main reasons for declining resilience.

In summary, this study systematically assessed the status, efficiency, and supply chain resilience of China’s natural resource utilization from the key dimensions of "Accounting-Efficiency-Resilience". The study recommends that in formulating resource management and environmental protection policies, the impacts of capital and labor flows and environmental restoration in economic activities should be comprehensively considered; supply chain network construction and optimization should be strengthened, especially the diversification of upstream resource channels and the development of overseas markets for downstream products, to enhance risk resistance; cooperation among multiple sectors and industrial chains should be promoted, sharing information, driving technological innovation, and coordinating policies to enhance the efficiency and resilience of the entire supply chain network. This study provides new perspectives and decision-making bases for optimizing resource allocation and ensuring supply chain security.