随着新型城镇化战略与生态文明建设的持续推进，绿色发展新理念成为城市群区域发展的基本纲领之一。珠江三角洲城市群作为我国最具活力的大型城市群之一，在经济高速发展的同时也面临着新旧生态环境问题交织的环境问题，这与土地资源过渡的开发利用息息相关。因此，为深入探讨珠江三角洲地区土地覆盖变化对区域生态环境的影响，本文借助1990-2020四期30m高精度土地利用数据，探究珠三角城市群长时间序列上土地利用变化的时空演化规律，并核算各市的生态环境指数，得到不同土地利用类型在变化进程中的生态贡献率结果，最终通过对未来土地利用及生态环境质量的发展趋势进行模拟预测，提出科学合理的对策建议，旨在丰富珠江三角洲地区区域发展的相关研究并为城市群可持续发展提供理论参考。结果表明：①珠三角城市群主要土地利用类型变化在1990-2020首尾年间整体呈现“四减两增”的趋势，研究期内城市群建设用地的扩张轨迹主要沿着珠江出海口向内拓展；②靠近珠江三角洲出海口的城市综合土地利用动态度明显高于外围城市，其中东莞综合动态度最高，惠州、江门和肇庆的总体变化速度低于其他城市。东莞市土地利用开发程度最高，江门市和肇庆市30年间土地利用开发程度变化的态势相对较弱；③研究期内所有土地利用类型中耕地变化最为剧烈，大面积的耕地退化为水域、林地和草地。建设用地转出为其他土地利用类型的面积相对较少；④珠三角九市的生态环境质量整体呈下降趋势，其中以深圳市和东莞市的降幅最为剧烈。肇庆市的生态环境质量常年位居珠三角地区第一且较为稳定；⑤对珠三角城市群生态环境质量改善有突出贡献的是耕地，其次是建设用地；对珠三角地区生态质量恶化贡献率较大的土地利用转移类型都是向建设用地的转化。退耕、还林、还湖是生态质量改善的重要原因，建设用地盲目侵占林地、耕地是生态环境恶化的主要导火索；⑥自然发展情景下林地的变化最为剧烈，林地退化将被进一步加剧。统筹保护情景中耕地面积缩减的程度明显降低，林地的面积呈正增长趋势，建设用地的扩张趋势逆转。在受到政策统筹约束后，区域生态环境获益明显的是东莞市、深圳市和佛山市；⑦根据本文的现状研究和模拟预测结果，提出了珠三角城市群可持续发展在土地利用和生态保护方面的政策建议，具体体现在盘活低效用地、产城融合路径探索和加强土地监测三个方面。

The concept of green development, with its sustainable promotion of urbanization policy and the establishment of ecological civilization, has become a fundamental foundation for the regional growth of urban conglomeration. As one of the most vigorous large urban group in China, the Pearl River Delta(PRD) urban group, while experiencing rapid economic expansion, is also experiencing environmental problems of new and old ecological and environmental problems intertwined, which are inextricably linked with the excessive utilization of land resources. As such, in order to in-depth explore the impact of land cover transformation on the area ecological environment in the PRD region, this paper investigates the space-time evolution pattern of land use change in the PRD urban agglomeration over a long time series with the help of four periods of 30m high-precision land use data from 1990 to 2020, and the ecological environment indicators of each city are accounted for to obtain the results of ecological contribution of various land use types in the alteration process, and finally by The aim is to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of land use change in the PRD urban agglomeration over a long time series, to calculate the ecological environment index of each city, to obtain the results of ecological contribution of various land use types in the process of change, and finally to propose scientific and reasonable proposals for countermeasures by simulating and predicting the development trend of land use and ecological environment quality in the next phase, with the aim of enriching the research on the regional development of the PRD region and providing theoretical references for the sustainable development of the research area. The data show that: (1) the changes of major land use types in the study area show the general phenomenon of "four decreases and two increases" around 1990-2020, and the expansion trajectory of construction land in the urban agglomeration during the study period is mainly with the inward expansion of the Pearl River Estuary; (2) the overall land use change rate of cities near the Pearl River Estuary is significantly higher than that of cities at the edge of the study area. Among the cities at the edge of the study area, Dongguan has the highest overall land use change rate, while Huizhou, Jiangmen and Zhaoqing are lower than other cities. Dongguan has the highest land development intensity, and Jiangmen and Zhaoqing have relatively weaker land development intensity over 30 years; (3) Arable land changed the most during the study period, with large areas of arable land becoming watershed, woodland and grassland. There are relatively small areas of land for cultivation into other land types; (4) The eco-environment of the nine cities in the PRD as a whole is on a falling trend, with the most obvious decline in ecological quality in Shenzhen and Dongguan. Zhaoqing City's ecological quality ranks first in the PPRD region year-round and is maintained very steadily; (5) In the land use transformation, the outstanding contribution to the improvement of ecological environment quality in the study area is cropland, followed by construction land; the types of land use transfer to the degradation of ecological environment in the study area are all conversions to construction land. The decline of cropland and the increase of forest land and grassland are significant causes of ecological quality improvement, and the blind encroachment of forest land and cropland by construction land is the main trigger of ecological environment deterioration; (6) The most dramatic changes in forest land under the natural development scenario will be further exacerbated by forest land degradation. The shrinkage of arable land area in the integrated conservation scenario is significantly reduced, the area of forest land shows a positive growth trend, and the expansion trend of construction land is reversed. The regional ecological environment benefited significantly after being constrained by the policy coordination are Dongguan City, Shenzhen City and Foshan City; (7) Based on the results of the current situation study and simulation forecasts, policy prescriptions for the sustainable development of the PRD urban agglomeration in terms of land use and ecological protection are proposed, specifically in three aspects: revitalizing low-utility land, exploring the path of city-industry integration, and enhancing land surveillance.