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中文题名:

 数字经济对共同富裕的影响 ——基于面板回归模型的实证分析    

姓名:

 汪千慧    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 chi    

学科代码:

 025200    

学科专业:

 应用统计    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 应用统计硕士    

学位类型:

 专业学位    

学位年度:

 2024    

校区:

 珠海校区培养    

学院:

 统计学院    

研究方向:

 数据科学与管理    

第一导师姓名:

 杜勇宏    

第一导师单位:

 统计学院    

提交日期:

 2024-06-13    

答辩日期:

 2024-05-25    

外文题名:

 THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL ECONOMY ON COMMON PROSPERITY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON PANEL REGRESSION MODEL    

中文关键词:

 数字经济 ; 共同富裕 ; 熵值法 ; 中介效应模型 ; 门槛效应 ; 异质性分析    

外文关键词:

 Digital economy ; Common prosperity ; Entropy method ; Intermediary effect model ; Threshold effect ; Heterogeneity analysis    

中文摘要:

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,是人民群众的共同期盼。经过四十余年的改革开放历程,我国在经济社会快速发展。但近年来,我国地区间发展不平衡、不充分的问题逐渐凸显,城乡发展差距扩大、收入分配不公等问题亦日益显现。随着数字化发展的不断深入,在中国经济高质量发展的过程中,数字经济扮演着举足轻重的角色,成为推动共同富裕的关键力量和新动能。因此,探究数字经济对共同富裕的影响机制和作用效应对实现共同富裕具有现实意义和研究价值。

首先,本文从理论上分析了数字经济对共同富裕的影响机制。除了分析直接影响效应的理论模型,又将创业活跃度作为中介变量,从理论上论述了数字经济对共同富裕的间接影响作用,还以数字经济发展水平为门槛变量,从理论上论述了数字经济对共同富裕的非线性影响。然后,本文分别从多个维度出发,构建了数字经济和共同富裕指标体系,并采用熵权法计算各指标权重,由此计算出30个省(市)在2013-2021年九年间的数字经济和共同富裕发展指数,并对不同地区的发展情况作出分析。以此为基础,本文根据面板数据选取合适的回归模型对直接、间接影响和门槛效应机制进行了实证研究。除此之外,本文还进行了异质性分析,深入探讨数字经济在东部、中部以及西部地区对共同富裕的直接、间接影响效应。最后,结合实证分析的结果,提出针对性的建议。

本文得到如下结论:第一,根据理论分析,数字经济能够通过增强共同富裕的发展性、共享性和可持续性直接影响共同富裕的发展,可通过创业活跃度的中介效应间接促进共同富裕的发展,并且数字经济对共同富裕的影响效应存在非线性。第二,根据计算得到的发展指数可知,我国各省(市)的数字经济和共同富裕水平大体呈现上升趋势,且近几年来东部地区发展较好。第三,根据实证分析,数字经济对共同富裕有着明显的正向促进作用,其他变量不变的情况下,数字经济每增加1单位,共同富裕提高0.546个单位。其次,数字经济还可以通过提升创业活跃度来间接促进共同富裕的发展。此外,由门槛效应分析可得,数字经济对共同富裕具有边际递减的非线性影响。最后,从异质性分析的结果可以得出,数字经济对共同富裕的直接促进作用强度大小在中部地区>西部地区>东部地区;创业活跃度在数字经济和共同富裕间的中介效应在西部地区最为明显,而在东部地区并不显著。

在得到上文实证分析结果的基础上,针对后续发展,本文提出以下建议:(1)推动共同富裕的区域均衡发展;(2)推动创业活跃度在落后地区增长;(3)继续加强数字经济在共同富裕发展中的促进作用。只有做到以上三点,才能推动数字经济为共同富裕发展提供更多动力和机遇。

外文摘要:

Common prosperity is the intrinsic requirement of socialism and the common aspiration of the people. Chinese economic and social development has made significant achievements in the 40 years since the reform and opening up. In addition, with the passage of time, the issue of unbalanced and insufficient interregional development has become prominent little by little. The widening gap between urban and rural development and inequitable income distribution becoming increasingly apparent. With the continual deepening of digitalization, the digital economy is playing an instrumental role in the process of China's high-quality economic development and has become a key force and new driving force to promote common prosperity. Therefore, it is of practical significance and research value to explore the influence mechanism and effect of digital economy on common prosperity.

First of all, this article theoretically anatomizes the influence mechanism of digital economy on common prosperity. In addition to the analysis of direct effects, the indirect effects of digital economy on common prosperity are discussed by taking entrepreneurial activity as the intermediary variable, and the non-linear effects of digital economy on common prosperity are also discussed by taking the development level of digital economy as the threshold variable. Secondly, in order to study the nonlinear influence of digital economy on common prosperity, this paper selects the level of the digital economy as the threshold variable and models the threshold effect. Then, this paper constructs the indicator system of digital economy and common prosperity from multiple aspects, and employs the entropy weight method to achieve the weights of each index, so as to calculate the development index of digital economy and common prosperity of 30 provinces (municipalities) during the nine years from 2013 to 2021, and analyzes the development situation of different regions. On this basis, this paper chooses an appropriate regression model to empirically explore the mechanism of direct and indirect effects and threshold effects based on panel data. In addition, this paper also conducts a heterogeneity analysis to deeply explore the direct and indirect effects of digital economy on common prosperity in the eastern, central and western regions. Finally, taking into account the results of the empirical analysis, some targeted suggestions were made in this paper.

This article mainly contributes the following conclusions: First, according to theoretical analysis, digital economy can directly affect the development of common prosperity by enhancing the development, sharing and sustainability of common prosperity, and indirectly promote the development of common prosperity through the intermediary effect of entrepreneurial activity, and the influence effect of digital economy on common prosperity is non-linear. Second, according to the calculated development index, the level of digital economy and common prosperity in China's provinces (cities) generally shows an upward trend, and the eastern region has developed well in recent years. Third, on the base of empirical analysis, digital economy contributes to common prosperity. When other variables remain unchanged, every 1 unit increase of digital economy will increase common prosperity by 0.546 units. Moreover, the digital economy can also indirectly contribute to the development of common prosperity by increasing entrepreneurial activity. In addition, according to the threshold effect analysis, the impact of digital economy on common prosperity is nonlinear and shows diminishing marginal. Finally, from the results of heterogeneity analysis, it can be concluded that the direct promotion intensity of digital economy to common prosperity is central > western > eastern; The mediating effect of entrepreneurial activity between digital economy and common prosperity is most obvious in the western region, while it is not significant in the eastern region.

Based on the results of the above empirical analysis, this paper makes the following suggestions for future development: (1) to promote a balanced regional development of common prosperity; (2) Promote the growth of entrepreneurial activity in backward regions; (3) Continue to strengthen the role of the digital economy in promoting common prosperity and development. Only by doing the above three things can we promote the digital economy to provide more impetus and opportunities for the development of common prosperity.

参考文献总数:

 71    

馆藏地:

 总馆B301    

馆藏号:

 硕025200/24045Z    

开放日期:

 2025-06-13    

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