本研究旨在指出并说明三个主要问题。第一，中国网络舆论监督的含义、发展的主要阶段、以及现在状况。第二，指出推动着中国网络舆论监督（因变量）兴起与发展的主要因素（自变量），分析中国网络舆论监管的博弈结构形态、及其相应利益主体所起的影响和作用。第三，针对网络公共舆论监督可能带来的监管危机，提出公共权力部门的应对途径、以及由此产生的理论问题或研究空间。论文围绕着这些问题提出相应的理论假设，并通过有针对性的实证检验，在形成理论建构的基础上，提出政策层面的若干理论思路和应对对策。社会学、政治学、心理学、以及传播学等各领域的学者，从不同学科角度对网络舆论的产生、发展和趋势进行了探讨，而就海外学者的相关研究来讲，多数都是从先验的角度，运用西方的普适经验来“套”中国网络问题。在此意义上讲，各种理论大体上只是对于局部经验的随机反映，因此，尽管研究中也提出了许多理念或观点，比如 “网络民主化论”、“威权政权强化论”、“技术决定论”、“技术工具论”等，但总的说来不过是要求政府同时作为“适应与变革者”和 “纯粹监管者”。事实上，网络及其监督和管理面对的是“善与恶”和“挑战与机遇”共存的格局，因此，提出和采用“网络监督—主体博弈—网络危机治理”的理论和方法，有助于对相关问题进行多面综合体的认识以及合理有效的应对。 “网络监督—主体博弈—网络危机治理”理论框架包括三个互动层次。第一层次：网络监督的形态。网络监督是经济社会结构变迁的网络折射，虚拟世界的“心理定位”是现实世界的投影。中国的网络舆论监督自1994经历了五个阶段。第二层次：网络监督的主体博弈。网络舆论监管背后是各种利益主体的策略互动。这些利益主体包括中央政府地方政府、网民、意见领袖等，在差异性偏好的驱动下，展开博弈，实现特定的网络监督形态。第三层次：网络监督与网络危机治理。这是本文重点。基于典型案例，全面深入地分析杭州飙车案掀起舆论“狂潮”背后的复杂因素，分析“躲猫猫”事件迅速平息背后的原因，通过比较分析两案例中网络舆论形成的过程、特点和政府应对工作的得失，提出网络危机事件六重效应及化解机制：蝴蝶效应、避雷针效应、 首因效应、互动效应、 破窗效应、 公信力重塑。网络舆论场日益对传统政府治理流程产生直接而惊人的影响，这种影响不仅体现公共政策流程的重塑，而且构成中国公民社会成长突破口。

The dissertation aims to point out and explain three main issues: First, it demonstrates the concept, the main development phase and the current status of internet supervision in China. Second, It points out the major factors (independent variable), promoting the emergence and the development of on-line supervision (dependent variable), analyzes the game-theory structure of cyberspace supervision. Third, in terms of on-line crisis which might be caused by internet supervision, the dissertation puts forward a series of approaches and countermeasures to cope wih crisis. A number of hyphothesis have got to be falsified on the basis of data and case-study.Sociology and political science and psychology, from different perspective, explores emergence, development and the tendency of online supervision. Overseas scholars have composed a number of thesis and books in the academic field, most of which apply western universal theory to analyse china's internet development. The spectum of opinons: whether "democratization", or "authoritarian regime is strengthened"; whether “technology determinism", or “technology merely as a tool”, whether “Chinese government as rigid regulator”, or “as a impulse to promoter mordernization of information industry”; reflect just empirical fragment of the whole. The dissertation constructs a theoretical framework: forms of internet supervation--- subject interaction—crisis goverance. The theoretical framework is comprised of three-dimension interaction. As the first dimension, the status and form of cyberspace supervation experienced 5 phases since 1994. As the second dimension, a network of gameplaying lies behind on-line supervision. Relevant subjects: central government, local government, netiens, opinion leaders, and companies, drived by differential preferences, interacts with each other, and therefore constitutes internet supervision structure in China. As the third dimension, based on typical in-depth case-study and data analysis, the dissertation probes and uncloses the cause and effect of internet crisis incidents , and furthermore eplores 6 effects and contermeasurs: butterfly effect, lightning rod effect, first impression effect, interactive effect, bursting window effect and credibility effect. Cyberspace has exerted an increasing influence on authoritative government, not only reshaping public policy process, but also constituting a breakthrough of Chinese civil society.