目前，互联网普及率升高与APP产业链的逐渐完善，使得消费者与会员订阅服务的联结更加紧密，而订阅意愿则是消费者面对具体订阅选项下做出决策的直接影响因素。订阅式商务中订阅选项的设计呈现多样化趋势，有基于价格框架的“月”和“年”选项，也有融入促销方式的“折扣”和“赠品”选项，甚至有价格框架和促销方式联合的选项。已有研究探讨了订阅选项设置本身对消费者订阅意愿的影响，也从个体因素方面探究了影响消费者订阅意愿的前因变量，但尚未有研究探讨时间焦点，即人们对过去、现在、未来投入注意力不同如何影响消费者的订阅意愿。根据解释水平理论，消费者对不同时间段的关注程度会影响他们对订阅选项相关信息的解释以及对选项可行性和可取性的思考。同时，对时间的思考和导向不同会影响人们的消费行为特征。因此，不同订阅选项背景下，时间焦点对订阅意愿的影响有待探究。

另外，订阅式商务涉及对短期即时效用与长期利益的权衡，是典型的跨期选择情境。有关跨期选择的研究表明，现在自我与未来自我连通性高的个体更倾向于对长期利益的考虑。以往研究也表明，对未来的关注会提高现在自我与未来自我的连通性。所以，这种未来自我连通性——个体感知到“现在的自己”在个性、气质、好恶、信仰、价值观等方面与“未来的自己”的联系程度——在时间焦点与订阅意愿关系的潜在机制仍然有待验证。前人对时间焦点的探讨主要考察人们关注过去、现在、未来单一时间段带来的影响，很少考察同时关注三个时间段的不同模式对结果变量的影响。因此，本研究基于潜在剖面分析的方法，探讨不同订阅选项背景下时间焦点对消费者订阅意愿的影响，检验未来自我连通性在时间焦点影响消费者订阅意愿关系的内在机制。

本研究通过两个研究（3个子研究）进行探讨。具体来说，研究一A在价格框架下探讨时间焦点对订阅意愿的影响，确定不同类型时间焦点的被试对“月”和“年”选项下订阅意愿的差异。对323份有效数据进行分析的结果显示，时间焦点存在平衡型、超时型、弱时型、过往型四种剖面类型，平衡型人群对长期的“年”选项的订阅意愿显著高于弱时型，但价格框架与时间焦点无交互作用，四类人群对“月”选项的订阅意愿均高于“年”选项。研究一B在促销方式下探讨时间焦点如何影响订阅意愿，确定不同类型时间焦点的被试对“折扣”和“赠品”选项下订阅意愿的差异。对324份有效数据进行分析的结果显示，时间焦点出现的平衡型、超时型、弱时型、当下型四种剖面中，当下型人群对折扣促销的订阅意愿高于弱时型、超时型，平衡型人群对赠品促销的订阅意愿高于当下型、弱时型，但促销方式与时间焦点无交互作用，四类人群对折扣促销的订阅意愿均高于赠品促销。研究二在价格框架和促销方式联合选项下，探讨时间焦点对订阅意愿的影响，并验证未来自我连通性对时间焦点与订阅意愿关系的中介作用。最终对337份有效数据进行分析的结果表明，时间焦点复制了研究一A的四种剖面，其中，平衡型人群对“年_赠品”选项的订阅意愿高于弱时型、过往型，超时型人群的订阅意愿也高于过往型。三因素交互作用中，赠品促销下平衡型、超时型人群对“年”选项的订阅意愿高于“月”选项；二因素交互作用中，“年”选项下平衡型、超时型人群订阅意愿高于弱时型、过往型。最后，未来自我连通性对时间焦点与订阅意愿关系的中介作用不显著。

综上所述，本研究发现，平衡型、超时型人群更喜欢长期的“年”选项订阅服务，平衡型人群也更喜欢赠品促销方式。另外，赠品促销能够提高平衡型、超时型人群对长期服务的订阅意愿。总体来说，本研究拓展了时间焦点、订阅意愿以及未来自我连通性等相关变量的文献范围，对订阅式商务的营销开展也具有重要实践价值。本文所得结论有助于企业重新定义“以客户为中心”，帮助营销者根据消费者的时间焦点进行个性化营销，使用合适的促销方式来提高人们对长期服务的订阅意愿。

At present, the rising Internet penetration rate and the gradual improvement of the APP industry chain have made the connection between consumers and member subscription services closer. Subscription intention is a direct factor influencing consumers’ decision making under specific subscription options. The design of subscription options in subscription-based commerce shows a diversified trend, including “month” and “year” options based on price framework, “discount” and “gift” options with promotions, and even options that combine price framework and promotional method. While studies have examined the impact of subscription options on consumers’ subscription intention and the antecedent variables that influence consumers’ subscription intention in terms of individual factors, no research has yet explored how temporal focus, i.e., how people devote attention differently to the past, present, and future, affects consumers’ subscription intention. According to the Construal Level Theory (CLT), the level of attention consumers devote to different time periods affects their interpretation of information related to subscription options and their thinking about the feasibility and desirability of the options. Meanwhile, thinking about and orienting to time differently affects people’s consumption behavior characteristics. Therefore, under the background of different subscription options, the influence of temporal focus on subscription intention remains to be explored.

In addition, subscription-based commerce involves a trade-off between short-term immediate utility and long-term benefits, which is a typical intertemporal choice situation. Research on intertemporal choice suggests that individuals with high connectedness between present self and future self are more inclined to consider long-term benefits. Previous research has also shown that concern for the future increases the connectedness between present self and future self. Therefore, the underlying mechanisms of this future self-connectedness, i.e., the extent to which individuals perceive their present self to be connected to their future self in terms of personality, temperament, likes and dislikes, beliefs, values, etc., in the temporal focus in relation to subscription intention remain to be verified. Previous explorations of temporal focus have mainly examined the effects brought about by people focusing on a single time period in the past, present, and future, and have rarely examined the effects of different modes of focusing on three time periods simultaneously on the outcome variables. Therefore, this study explores the effects of temporal focus on consumer’s subscription intention in the context of different subscription options based on the Latent Profile Analysis(LPA), and examines the intrinsic mechanism of future self-connectedness in the relationship between temporal focus influencing consumer’s subscription intention.

This study explores this through two studies (three sub-studies). Specifically, Study 1A explores the effect of temporal focus on subscription intention within a price framework, and determines the differences in subscription intention between different profiles of temporal focus for the “month” and “year” options. The results of the analysis of the 323 valid data show that there are four profile types of temporal focus i.e., Balanced Focus, Hypertemporal Focus, Weak Temporal Focus and Past Temporal Focus. Those with a Balanced Focus have a significantly higher subscription intention to the long-term “year” option than those with a Weak Temporal Focus. There is no interaction between price framework and temporal focus, and all four groups have a higher subscription intention to the “month” option than the “year” option. Study 1B explores how temporal focus affects subscription intention in the context of promotions, identifying differences in subscription intention between the “discount” and “gift” options for different profiles of temporal focus. The results of the analysis of the 324 valid data show that among the four profiles of Balanced Focus, Hypertemporal Focus, Weak Temporal Focus and Carpe Diem Focus, the Carpe Diem Focus group has higher subscription intention for discount promotion than the Weak Temporal Focus and Hypertemporal Focus groups. The Balanced Focus group has higher subscription intention for gift promotion than the Carpe Diem Focus and Weak Temporal Focus groups. However, there is no interaction between promotional method and temporal focus, and all four groups have higher subscription intention for discount promotion than for gift promotion. Study 2 examines the effect of temporal focus on subscription intention under the joint option of price framework and promotion method and verifies the mediating role of future self-connectedness on the relationship between temporal focus and subscription intention. The results of the analysis of the 337 valid data show that the temporal focus replicated the four profiles in Study 1A, and the Balanced Focus group has higher subscription intention for the “year_gift” option than the Weak Temporal Focus and the Past Temporal Focus groups, and the Hypertemporal Focus group also has higher subscription intention than the Past Temporal Focus group. In the three-way interaction, the Balanced Focus and Hypertemporal Focus groups have a higher subscription intention to the “year” option than the “month” option in the context of a gift promotion. In the two-factor interaction, the Balanced Focus and Hypertemporal Focus groups have higher subscription intention than the Weak Temporal Focus and the Past Temporal Focus groups under the “year” option. Finally, the mediating effect of future self-connectedness on the relationship between temporal focus and subscription intention was not significant.

To summarize, this study found that the Balanced Focus and Hypertemporal Focus groups prefer long-term “annual” subscription services, and the Balanced Focus group also prefers gift promotion. In addition, gift promotion can increase the willingness to subscribe to long-term services among the Balanced Focus and Hypertemporal Focus group. Overall, this study expands the scope of the literature on temporal focus, subscription intention, and future self-connectedness, also has important practical value for the marketing of subscription-based commerce. The findings of this paper can help companies to redefine “customer-centricity”, help marketers to personalize marketing according to consumers’ temporal focus, and use appropriate promotional methods to increase people’s subscription intention to long-term services.