中文题名: | 中国风电开发土地占用的定量研究与空间分析 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 083001 |
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学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 工学硕士 |
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学位年度: | 2023 |
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研究方向: | 风电场土地占用 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
提交日期: | 2023-06-18 |
答辩日期: | 2023-06-02 |
外文题名: | Quantitative Study and Spatial Analysis of Land Use for Wind Power Development in China |
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外文关键词: | |
中文摘要: |
随着全球应对气候变化共识的形成,以可再生能源为主导的能源革命日益受到世界各国的重视。与此同时,国际政治局势的变动影响了世界能源安全格局,加快了可再生能源替代传统化石能源的进程。作为全球可再生能源发展的领军者,中国积极承担起了应对气候变化和能源短缺问题的重任,以“碳达峰”和“碳中和”的战略目标拉开了中国能源消费结构绿色转型的序幕。在这一过程中,风电以其低碳清洁、成熟可靠的技术优势,成为中国推进“双碳”目标建设的重要着力点。然而,作为一种低密度能源,陆上风电场不仅需要分散布置风电机组,还需要配套修建辅助设施,进而占用大量土地资源。大规模开发陆上风电,势必产生大量用地需求,加剧国土资源紧张形势。因此,系统研究中国风电开发的土地占用问题,对保障“碳中和”前景下中国风电的土地资源支撑、化解风电开发的潜在风险具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。 本研究以土地占用的排他性为原则,从时空维度重新界定了风电场土地占用类型。在此基础上,通过建立多样本参数化的系统核算方法和基于α形状算法的风电场总占地面积计算模型,本研究分类核算了中国风电场不同土地占用类型的占地面积,探究了风电场用地强度的变化规律和影响因素,模拟预测了“碳中和”目标下不同发展情景的风电开发土地需求。以中国风电数据库和GIS空间分析方法为基础,本研究量化分析了内蒙古自治区风电场的土地占用质量,分类讨论了风电场在不同土地利用类型上的分布情况,研究了风电场对生态敏感区域的土地占用风险。论文主要研究内容和结论如下: (1)风电场土地占用类型的界定与划分。以排他性为界定原则,风电场的土地占用在空间上可划分为直接影响区域和间接影响区域,在时间上可划分为永久用地和临时用地。其中,直接影响区域面积等于永久用地与临时用地面积之和,风电场总占地面积等于直接影响区域与间接影响区域面积之和。 (2)中国风电场土地占用面积分类核算。以多样本参数化的系统核算方法为基础,本研究计算了2022年中国陆上风电场风机基础占地、永久用地、临时用地和直接影响区域占地面积,结果分别为48.28 km2、352.08 km2和1234.86 km2和1638.81 km2。其中,直接影响区域占地面积约为我国陆地国土面积的0.02%。通过样本参数法和α形状算法相互验证的方式,本研究核算了2022年中国陆上风电场间接影响区域占地面积和总占地面积,结果分别为9.81´104 km2和9.99´104 km2。其中,现有风电场总占地面积几乎与全国城镇总用地面积相当,约占我国陆地国土面积的1.0%。 (3)“碳中和”前景下中国风电用地需求预测。在当前技术水平情景下,2060年中国风电场风机基础占地面积、永久用地面积、临时用地面积和总占地面积分别为398.00 km2、3075.95 km2、1.08´104 km2和7.46´105 km2;而在技术进步与风机换代情景下,上述四种土地占用类型的占地面积分别为175.80 km2、705.71 km2、3171.01 km2和2.40´105 km2,分别比前一情景下降了55.83%、77.06%、70.72%和67.76%,且四种土地占用类型的用地需求均在2050年左右达到峰值。 (4)内蒙古自治区风电场土地占用质量分析。以中国风电数据库和GIS空间分析方法为基础,本研究定量分析了内蒙古风电场在不同土地利用类型上的分布情况。其中,分布于各类草地之上的风机数量最多,占全区风机数量的74.6%;而荒漠化地区的风电机组数量较少,总数占比仅有6.7%。从风电场缓冲区对生态敏感区域的土地占用情况来看,风电场5 km缓冲区、3 km缓冲区以及场址区域与内蒙古自然保护区的重合面积分别达到了883.37 km2、469.40 km2和108.67 km2,分别占内蒙古自然保护区总面积的0.96%、0.51%与0.12%;与生态功能保护区的重合面积分别达到了10478.55 km2、6640.92 km2和2298.88 km2,分别占内蒙古生态功能保护区总面积的4.0%、2.5%与0.88%。 本研究的创新性主要包括两个方面。首先,本研究精确核算了中国风电场不同类型土地占用面积,定量分析了内蒙古风电场土地占用质量状况,部分建成了中国风电数据库,将研究尺度提升到了国家级和省区级层面,突破了以往研究局限于单个风电场或风电基地的地域限制;其次,本研究建立了多样本参数化的系统核算方法,构建了基于α形状算法的风电场总占地面积计算模型,完善了大尺度条件下风电场土地占用面积的计算方法,并以不同方法相互验证的方式,提高了风电场总占地面积和间接影响区域的核算准确度。 未来的研究应在补全中国风电数据库的基础上,将风电场土地占用的空间分析拓展至全国,并以风电场土地占用为核心,对风电开发的生态环境与社会经济影响进行系统分析,发掘研究其中潜在的权衡风险,从而避免风电开发所带来的负面效应,为中国风电的宏观布局与区域规划提供更加全面的数据支撑。 |
外文摘要: |
With the formation of a global consensus on addressing climate change, the energy revolution led by renewable energy is increasingly receiving attention from countries around the world. At the same time, changes in the international political situation have affected the global energy security landscape, accelerating the process of renewable energy replacing traditional fossil fuels. As a leader in the development of global renewable energy, China has actively undertaken the task of coping with climate change and energy shortage, and has kicked off the green transformation of China's energy consumption structure with the strategic goals of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality". In this process, wind power, with its low-carbon, clean, mature and reliable technological advantages, has become an important focus for China to promote the construction of the "dual carbon" goal. However, as a low-density energy source, onshore wind farms not only need to decentralize wind turbines, but also require the construction of supporting facilities, thereby occupying a large amount of land resources. The large-scale development of onshore wind power is bound to generate a large demand for land, exacerbating the situation of land resource shortage. Therefore, systematic research on the land use of wind power development in China is of great theoretical and practical significance to ensure the land resource support of China's wind power in the "carbon neutrality" prospect and resolve the potential risks of wind power development. This study redefines the type of land occupation for wind farms from a spatiotemporal perspective, based on the principle of exclusivity in land occupation. On this basis, by establishing a multi sample parameterized systematic accounting method and the calculation model of the total land use of wind farms based on alpha shape algorithm, this study calculated the land use of different land occupation types of wind farms in China by category, explored the change rule and influencing factors of the land use intensity of wind farms, and simulated and predicted the land demand for wind power development under different development scenarios under the goal of "carbon neutrality". Based on China Wind Power Database and GIS spatial analysis method, this study quantitatively analyzes the land use quality of wind farms in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, discusses the distribution of wind farms in different land use types, and studies the land use risk of wind farms in ecologically sensitive areas. The main research content and conclusions of the paper are as follows: (1) Definition and classification of land occupation types for wind farms. Based on the principle of exclusivity, the land occupation of wind farms can be divided into direct and indirect impact areas in space, and permanent and temporary land in time. Among them, the area of the direct impact area is equal to the sum of the permanent land area and the temporary land area, and the total land area of the wind farm is equal to the sum of the area of the direct impact area and the area of the indirect impact area. (2) Classification and accounting of land use area of wind farms in China. Based on the multi sample parameterized systematic accounting method, this study calculated the land use of wind turbine foundations, permanent land use, temporary land use, and direct impact area in China's onshore wind farms in 2022, with results of 48.28 km2, 352.08 km2, 1234.86 km2 and 1638.81 km2, respectively. Among them, the direct impact area covers an area of approximately 0.02% of China's total land area. Through mutual verification of sample survey method and alpha shape algorithms, this study calculated the indirect impact area and total land area of China's onshore wind farms in 2022, the results were 9.81×104 km2 and 9.99×104 km2, respectively. Among them, the total land area of existing wind farms is almost equivalent to the total urban land area in China, accounting for approximately 1.0% of China's total land area. (3) Forecast of China's wind power land demand in the "carbon neutrality" perspective. Under the current technological level scenario, the land area of wind turbine foundations, permanent land use area, temporary land use area, and total land use area of wind farms in China in 2060 were 398.00 km2, 3075.95 km2, 1.08×104 km2, and 7.46×105 km2, respectively; In the scenario of technological progress and wind turbine replacement, the land use areas of the four types of land occupation mentioned above are 175.80 km2, 705.71 km2, 3171.01 km2 and 2.40´105 km2, respectively, a decrease of 55.83%, 77.06%, 70.72% and 67.76% compared to the previous scenario, and the land demand for all four types of land occupation reaches its peak around 2050. (4) Analysis of land use quality of wind farm in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Based on China Wind Power Database and GIS spatial analysis method, this study quantitatively analyzed the distribution of wind farms in Inner Mongolia on different land use types. Among them, the number of wind turbines distributed on various grasslands is the highest, accounting for 74.6% of the total number of wind turbines in the region; The number of wind turbines in desertification areas is relatively small, accounting for only 6.7% of the total. From the land occupation of ecologically sensitive areas in the wind farm buffer area, the overlapping areas of the 5 km buffer area, 3 km buffer area, and the site area with the Inner Mongolia Nature Reserves have reached 883.37 km2, 469.40 km2, and 108.67 km2, respectively, accounting for 0.96%, 0.51%, and 0.12% of the total area of the Inner Mongolia Nature Reserves; The overlapping area with the Ecological Function Reserves reached 10478.55 km2, 6640.92 km2, and 2298.88 km2, respectively, accounting for 4.0%, 2.5%, and 0.88% of the total area of the Ecological Function Reserves in Inner Mongolia. The innovations of this study mainly include two aspects. Firstly, this study accurately calculated the land occupation area of different types of wind farms in China, quantitatively analyzed the land occupation quality of wind farms in Inner Mongolia, and partially built the China Wind Power Database, elevating the research scale to the national and provincial levels, breaking through the regional limitations of previous research bureaus limited to individual wind farm or wind power base; Secondly, this study established the multi sample parameterized systematic accounting method, constructed the calculation model of total land use of wind farms based on alpha shape algorithm, improved the calculation method of wind farm land occupation area under large-scale conditions, and enhanced the accuracy of calculating the total land occupation area and indirect impact area of wind farms through mutual verification of different methods. Future research should expand the spatial analysis of wind farm land occupation to the whole country on the basis of completing China Wind Power Database, and systematically analyze the ecological environment and socio-economic impacts of wind power development with wind farm land occupation as the core, explore and study the potential trade-off risks, so as to avoid the negative effects of wind power development, provide more comprehensive data support for the macro layout and regional planning of China's wind power. |
参考文献总数: | 111 |
作者简介: | 陈云钊,北京师范大学环境学院硕士研究生,专业为环境科学,研究方向为风电场的土地占用。 |
馆藏号: | 硕083001/23062 |
开放日期: | 2024-06-18 |