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中文题名:

 增长模式转换中的中国经济#基于省级面板数据的实证研究    

姓名:

 任潇艺    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 中文    

学科代码:

 020106    

学科专业:

 人口 ; 资源与环境经济学    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 经济学硕士    

学位类型:

 学术学位    

学位年度:

 2019    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 经济与资源管理研究院    

研究方向:

 宏观经济    

第一导师姓名:

 范世涛    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院    

提交日期:

 2019-06-25    

答辩日期:

 2019-05-28    

外文题名:

 China’s Economy in the Transition of Growth Model#An Empirical Analysis Bases on Provincial Panel Data    

中文关键词:

 经济增长 ; 经济转型 ; 创新驱动 ; 投资拉动 ; R&D投资    

中文摘要:
1978年以来,我国经济持续高速增长。但这种增长主要依赖资本积累,是典型的投资拉动经济增长模式。2012年,党的十八大明确提出“实施创新驱动发展战略”,确立了我国经济增长由投资拉动向创新驱动转型的战略目标。科学评估这一目标的实现进度,明确未来的政策重点,对于加快经济转型进程具有重大的现实意义。 本文在标准的经济增长理论框架下引入R&D资本,使用我国 31个省(市、自治区)1998-2016年的面板数据,重点考察R&D资本与传统物质资本对我国经济增长的贡献,通过比较要素投入的边际生产率,为提高我国资源配置效率、优化经济结构提供参考性建议。 本项研究发现:(1)1998-2016年全样本回归中,R&D资本和传统物质资本的弹性系数分别为0.244和0.297,R&D的增长贡献已经大幅接近物质资本投资。(2)从区域来看,我国东、中、西部经济转型进度差异较大,东部地区已经率先完成经济增长模式的转变,R&D资本已经超越传统物质资本投资成为了促进经济增长的最核心动力;中部地区仍处于经济模式转化的过程中,R&D资本的驱动作用开始增强,但传统投资的拉动作用依然显著;西部地区的经济增长模式转型刚刚起步,R&D资本的影响作用较微弱,投资仍然是拉动经济增长的主要动力。(3)从阶段进展来看,2008-2016年R&D资本和传统物质资本的弹性系数分别为0.284和0.244,R&D资本对经济的驱动强度已经超越物质资本,同时R&D资本的弹性系数较全样本而言有所增加,而物质资本的弹性系数降幅明显,前后两阶段的比较分析表明近年来我国经济转型有明显进展。(4)本项研究还发现,R&D资本的边际生产率始终远高于物质资本的边际生产率,但2008-2016时间段中二者的边际生产率较全样本均有下降,这表明,在加大R&D活动投资力度的同时,应密切关注R&D资本投资效率,促进我国经济增长转型的进一步深化。
外文摘要:
Since 1978, China economy has continued to grow at a high rate. But this growth is mainly based on capital accumulation, which is a typical investment-driven economic growth model. In 2012, the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly put forward the "implementation of innovation-driven development strategy" and established the strategic goal of China economic growth from investment-led to innovation-driven transformation. Scientifically assessing the progress of this goal and clarifying future policy priorities are of great practical significance for accelerating the process of economic transformation. This paper introduces R&D capital under the standard economic growth theory framework, and uses the panel data of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 1998 to 2016 to focus on the contribution of R&D capital and traditional physical capital to China economic growth. By comparing the marginal productivity of factor inputs, it provides reference suggestions for improving China's resource allocation efficiency and optimizing economic structure. The study found that: (1) In the 1998-2016 full-sample regression, the elastic coefficients of R&D capital and traditional material capital were 0.244 and 0.297 respectively, and the growth contribution of R&D has been close to that of physical capital investment. (2) From the regional perspective, the economic transformation progress of the eastern, central and western regions is quite different. The eastern region has taken the lead in completing the transformation of economic growth mode. R&D capital has surpassed traditional physical capital investment and became the core driving force for economic growth. The central region is still in the process of economic model transformation, and the driving role of R&D capital has begun to increase, but the pulling effect of traditional investment is still significant. The transformation of economic growth mode in the western region has just started, the influence of R&D capital is weak, and investment is still pulling The main driver of economic growth. (3) From the stage progress, the elastic coefficients of R&D capital and traditional material capital in 2008-2016 are 0.284 and 0.244 respectively. The driving strength of R&D capital to the economy has surpassed the physical capital, and the elastic coefficient of R&D capital has increased comparing to the complete sample, while the elastic coefficient of material capital has dropped significantly. The comparative analysis of the two stages shows that China economic transformation has made significant progress in recent years. (4) This study also found that the marginal productivity of R&D capital is always much higher than the marginal productivity of material capital, but the marginal productivity of the two in the 2008-2016 period is lower than that of the whole sample. This shows that on the one hand, it should increase the investment of R&D activities, and pay close attention to the efficiency of R&D capital investment to promote the further deepening of China economic growth transformation.
参考文献总数:

 67    

作者简介:

 任潇艺,北京师范大学经济与资源管理学院硕士生毕业生,师从范世涛副教授,本科毕业于北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院金融学专业。 攻读学位期间取得的学术成果:范世涛,任潇艺.吴敬琏:80年代经济改革的回忆与反思[A].见:中国经济体制改革研究会编.见证重大改革决策——改革亲历者口述史[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2018.263-205.    

馆藏号:

 硕020106/19002    

开放日期:

 2020-07-09    

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