中文题名: | 基于生态网络分析的中国能源供应安全评估与调控—以原油和天然气为例 |
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学科代码: | 083001 |
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学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 工学硕士 |
学位年度: | 2015 |
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研究方向: | 能源安全系统 |
第一导师姓名: | |
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提交日期: | 2015-06-10 |
答辩日期: | 2015-05-22 |
外文题名: | The systematic evaluation and regulation of crude oil and natural gas supply security in China based on ecological network analysis |
中文摘要: |
能源安全,作为国家经济安全体系中不可缺少的组成部分,对国民经济的发展具有重要的影响作用。在当今时代,能源安全问题已在世界范围内引起了越来越广泛的关注。一般说来,能源安全包括能源供应安全和能源使用安全。由于中国原油供应安全的战略重要性和国际敏感性,及当前环境友好型燃料天然气需求量的不断加大(导致其供求关系在未来越来越紧张),本研究将重点对中国的原油和天然气供应安全进行系统性评估和调控。 为打破传统研究无法系统评估能源安全水平、难以揭示关键影响因素的局限,本研究引入生态网络分析这种系统分析方法,构建能源供应网络模型:首先确定中国原油供应系统和中国天然气供应系统的网络节点,即生产部门(含内部供应源和外部供应源)、加工部门、消费部门、中转部门等;然后根据各节点之间的交流关系确定网络路径;最后构建起中国原油供应网络模型和中国天然气供应网络模型。随后,结合生态网络中的信息分析、结构分析、效用分析等对中国的原油和天然气供应安全进行系统性评估,识别关键节点、过程和路径,并据此提出系统调控方案。 研究结果表明,在2000-2011年间,中国原油供应安全水平整体上缓慢上升。同时,原油供应系统中不同节点对于整个系统的权重值呈现类似金字塔结构,其中供应部门位于金字塔底部,消费部门位于金字塔顶端,加工部门和存储部门位于中部。而且,南北美洲地区对于中国原油供应系统的影响最大。就网络节点间关系而言,仅有个别节点之间的关系在研究期内有变化。通过进一步的情景分析发现,使原油进口来源多样化是提高中国原油供应安全水平的有效措施。 从2000到2011年,中国天然气供应安全水平持续增长。同时,不同节点对整个供应系统的影响大小依次是供应源、消费部门、加工和存储部门,其中其他国家(包括韩国、泰国、美国等其他国家)对整个供应系统的影响最大。另外,研究揭示了2000-2011年间,系统中节点之间的相互作用关系趋于复杂化。最后通过情景分析发现对于提高中国天然气供应安全水平有积极作用的主要措施包括:通过提高天然气的勘探能力和开采技术来提高中国自身天然气的生产量;适度增加外部供应源的数量并加强它们之间的联系,使供应系统的多样性和连接度不断提高。 本研究将生态网络模型应用到中国原油和天然气的供应安全研究中,这将为国家能源安全的系统性评估与调控提供一种新视角,同时也将对政策制定具有重要的借鉴意义。
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外文摘要: |
Energy security usually considers both the stability of energy supply and security of energy use and it is receiving increasing attention globally. Considering the strategic importance and sensitivity to international change of the crude oil supply, we decided to examine China’s crude oil supply security. Meanwhile, we also concerned on China’s natural gas supply security, considering the great demand of natural gas, an environment-friendly fuel whose gap between the demand and supply will be increasingly scrutinized in the future. A powerful systems-oriented tool-ecological network analysis-was introduced to comprehensively evaluate the level of energy supply security and reveal the key influencing factors. First, the original network model of Chinese energy supply system was established, during which multiple compartments including domestic production sector, external supply sources, processing sector, transfer sector and consumption sector were connected in a network by the interactions among various compartments. Subsequently, the security level of crude oil and natural gas supply system in China were systematically analyzed based on the Network Information Analysis, Network Structural Analysis, and Network Utility Analysis. Finally, the key influencing compartments, processes, and pathways were identified, based on which the systematic regulations were suggested.Using this network model, we found that the security of the crude oil supply in China generally increased from 2001 to 2010. Meanwhile, the contribution of different compartments in the network to the overall energy security resembled a pyramid structure, with supply sources at the bottom, the consumption sector at the top, and the refining and transfer sectors in the middle. North and South America made the largest contribution to the security of the crude oil supply in China. Besides, the relationships between different compartments in the crude oil supply system almost maintained unchanged (except for several pairs of compartments). Lastly, we provided suggestions to improve the security of the crude oil supply in China based on our results and further scenario analysis.For natural gas supply system, it is found that the Chinese natural gas supply security increased during 2000–2011. In terms of the influence of different compartments on the whole natural gas supply system, the order is: the supply sources, the consumption sector, the refining and reserve sectors, from the larger to smaller influence. And the relationships among compartments in the network became more complicated in the late stage than that in the early stage of the study period. Suggestions on improving the Chinese natural gas supply security were proposed based on the results and further scenario analysis, e.g., increasing the domestic production, moderately increasing the external supply sources and strengthening their connections, and gradually improving the connectivity of the natural gas supply system. The network model adopted into the evaluation of the Chinese crude oil and natural gas supply security herein is a new perspective for energy security assessment, which can be used as guidance for policy making.
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参考文献总数: | 132 |
作者简介: | 本人在研究生阶段主要进行能源安全系统评估,认真总结凝练科研成果,在Energy Policy期刊上发表SCI论文 Assessment of energy security in China based on ecological network analysis: A perspective from the security of crude oil supply(第一作者);在 Frontiers of Earth Science期刊上发表SCI论文 Urban energy consumption |
馆藏号: | 硕083001/1531 |
开放日期: | 2015-06-10 |