工业是我国当前经济的主要支撑。在三次产业的划分中，第二产业特别是工业，对国民收入增长的贡献最大，因此工业主导产业的选择也尤为重要。本文以各地区工业产业为研究对象，探讨工业主导产业的识别方法，提出相关的发展建议，不仅可以为大尺度的工业主导产业选择提供科学依据，也可为区域间的协调发展、避免盲目建设和重复建设提供现实支撑。 我国正处于工业化中期阶段，各地在大力发展本地区的主导产业的同时，应依据《国民经济与社会发展第十二五规划》要求，大力发展战略性新兴产业，实现产业结构的优化、升级和转型，促进区域经济、社会和环境的协调发展。在综合考察国内外的研究现状、比较分析我国实际情况的基础上，依据指标体系建设的客观性、可比性、可行性和完整性原则，选取了比较优势、产业规模、市场需求和技术进步四个基准，确定了比较劳动生产率、产业平均规模、区内增加值比重、产值规模、固定资产规模、就业规模、需求收入弹性、平均增长率、技术进步速度和固定资产更新率等11个指标。鉴于基准和指标的多层次复杂性，采用层次分析法，借助专家打分确定指标的权重。以定性和定量分析相结合，实证和规范研究相结合，以1990、1995、2000、2005、2010为五个时间节点，识别出我国近20年31个省、自治区和直辖市工业主导产业，在此基础上进行了时间、空间及其时空耦合规律的分析。依据主导产业发展的规律，判定各地区《国民经济与社会发展十二五规划》确定的主导产业的合理性与可行性，并对各地区工业主导产业的选择提供政策建议。主要结论是：（1）在经济转型背景下，考虑到区域主导产业与支柱产业、基础产业、战略性新兴产业的区别和联系，并不是所有工业体系中的产业都有成为主导产业的可能性；（2）区域主导产业异中有同，依据主导产业的不同将全国31个省市划分为5个区域：经济发达区，传统工业区，传统农业区，资源拉动区和优势待显区。（3）1990-2010年的20年间我国的各地区主导产业呈现“自动扶梯”式平行上升的规律，即在空间维度上从东部到中部再到西部产业依次推进，在时间截面上产业的更替上升趋势非常明显，综合时空维度，这种两种趋势叠加构成了梯级式的上升状态；（4）未来主导产业的选择要综合考虑自身的优势、发展阶段及国家的产业政策，从而制定出略微超前又符合自身特点的主导产业发展规划，实现经济的持续发展。

The main sustentation of our country is the industry at present. In the classification of the three industries， the secondary industry， especially industry， make the biggest contribution to the growth of national income. In consideration of this，the choice of leading industries is of particular importance. Taking industry profession among provincial industries as the subject investigated，investigating the recognition methods of leading industries，put forward advice of related industries，this paper provides not only theoretical basis for the choice of industrial leading industry in a macro view， but also the actual supports for coordinated developments between regions and avoidances of blind and repetitive constructions.China is in the middle of industrialization stage; besides developing the regional leading industry at the same time，each region shall develop strategic emerging industries basing on the requirements of national 12th five-year plan，realize the optimization and upgrade of industrial structure，and promote the coordinated development of regional economy， society and environment. Basing on the prior research and comparative analysis of the actual situation in our country，in accordance with the objectivity，comparability，and integrity principles in constructing the indexes ，we eventually select comparative advantage， industry scale， market demand and technical progress as four benchmarks，and then construct11 indexes including compared labor productivity， average size of industry， total value added， production value scale， fixed asset scale， employment，income elasticity of demand， average growth rate， technological progress speed and replacement rate of fixed assets. In view of the multi-level and complexity of benchmarks and indexes，we adopt the analytic hierarchy process and determine the weights of indexes with the aid of expert scores. Combining qualitative and quantitative analysis， empirical and normative analysis，taking 1990，1995，2000，2005，2010 as five time nodes，this paper recognizes the industrial leading industry of 31 provinces， autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in recent twenty years. Basing on the recognition，this paper makes analyses based on time， space， and the space-time continuum. According to the development rules of leading industries，we estimate the reasonableness and feasibility of leading industries determined by The Twelfth Five-Year Plan for different regions， and then further provide policy suggestions for the choice of industry leading industries.The main conclusions are：(1) Under the condition of economy transition， considering differences and relations between regional leading industries， pillar industries， basic industries， strategic emerging industries， not all the industries in industrial system have the possibilities of being leading industries; (2) The region leadering industries has both same and different implication. According to the different leading industries, the 31 Provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government can be divided into five areas: the economically developed area, the traditional industrial zone, the traditional agriculture, the resources pull area and the advantage to show area.(3) In the twenty years between 1990 and 2010，the provincial leading industries in China present a pattern of "escalator" type of parallel rise， that is，industries push forward from the east to the middle and to the west spatially; the trend of industry rising and replacement is very clear; integrating the time and space dimensions， the two trends overlap and form stepped type of rising; (4) In the future，when choosing leading industries，we should take self-advantages， economy development stage and national industrial policies into consideration， and then make development plans of leading industries which are slightly ahead but suitable for oneself， and finally realize persistent development of the economy.