中国的经常账户失衡问题已经存在多年，是各界热烈讨论的焦点。在中国经济结构转型加快、世界经济格局显著调整的背景下，关注中国的经常账户顺差，有助于对中国的内外经济发展进程和未来走向形成更好的认识。什么因素推动了中国的长期经常账户顺差，顺差反映了什么经济问题，汇率在其中起到了怎样的作用，随着内外因素的变动，中国经常账户顺差又会如何变化，这是本研究想要回答的问题。近几十年来，中国社会处于改革开放的进程中，整个经济的市场化程度逐渐加深，同时，经常账户的顺差也持续了近二十年。中国的经常账户顺差以货物贸易顺差为主，其中外商投资带动的加工贸易占据了很大比重。外部失衡发生在内部改革与外部国际产业转移的背景之下。一方面，随着改革的进行，中国的劳动力优势得以释放，低的劳动力成本吸引了大量国际投资进入，经常账户顺差是国际产业转移，利用中国低要素成本生产的结果。另一方面，市场的不完全导致了包括劳动力在内的要素价格遭到压制，一定程度上扭曲了储蓄-投资格局，加大了顺差的幅度，同时也影响了汇率机制的调整作用。本文结论认为，中国经常账户顺差的持续与扩大反映了结构转型背景下，要素配置趋于合理与要素配置被扭曲这两种因素同时存在的情况，考虑到结构转型的不断发展完善，大规模的顺差具有一定的“过程性”和“阶段性”特征。在要素价格形成机制不断调整完善的趋势下，要素成本不再维持在低水平，伴随着外部经济状况和产业转移趋势的调整变化，未来中国的经常账户顺差很可能会出现减小。基于这样的思路，本文侧重从内部因素去解释中国的外部顺差，同时也兼以评论需求方以及价格因素的作用。在第一部分阐述了研究的背景和意义，总结了中国经常账户顺差和全球产业转移的特点。第二部分对本领域的已有文献进行了综述。第三部分结合相关数据，考察和总结了中国经济快速增长中所出现的一些现象，包括高投资和高的投入、收入差距扩大、要素市场逐步建立但仍然存在不完全，这些都是与结构转型相联系的重要特征。随后的第四章以跨期模型为基础，分别讨论人口增长、人口年龄结构变化、劳动力流动、要素市场不完整及工资差异等因素对于不同人群储蓄-投资行为的影响。第五部分利用中国省级数据进行了实证检验，验证了多种因素对储蓄-投资平衡的影响，并且分别检验了这些因素对储蓄和投资的作用。第六部分在回顾人民币汇率体制改革的基础上考察了人民币汇率变动与中国净出口的关系。第七章从全球化以及产业转移、外部经济周期等因素分析了外部需求对中国经常账户顺差的影响。最后总结全文，并结合世界经济和国内经济的调整方向，预测中国未来顺差的走势，提出相应的政策建议。

China’s current account imbalance has lasted for many years and has been the focus of heated discussion. Studying China’s current account surplus, in the context of China’s accelerated structural change and significant adjusting of world economy situation, contributes to a better perception of China’s internal-external development and its trend. What caused China’s chronic current account surplus? What this surplus can tell? How exchange rate works in it? How it may change following the change of internal-external factors? All these are supposed to be answered in this article.In recent decades, China is in the process of reform and opening-up with the deepened extent of marketization. Current account surplus has also continued for 20 years. China’s current account surplus is led by goods trade surplus of which processing trade driven by foreign investment accounts for the majority. External imbalance appears against the background of reform domestically and international industry transfer abroad.On one hand, during the reform, the advantage of China’s labor force exposed with lowered labor cost which attracted large amount of foreign investment. This triggered international industry transferred into China as a result of using Chinese low cost factors. On the other hand, imperfect market has suppressed the internal factor price including labor cost, which in some degree distorted savings-investment structure, increased amplitude of surplus movement, and affected the adjustment effect of the exchange rate. Overall, this study believes that sustaining and expanding of currentaccount surplus reflect the coexistence of reasonable trends and distorted trends of factor allocation under theinfluence of structural transformation.Considering the continuous development and improvement of structural transformation, large scales of surplus carry features of procedural and periodical.Factor formation mechanism is adjusting and improving continuously under which the factor cost will not maintain at a low level. In the future China’s current account surplus is likely to reduce with the adjustment of external economic situation and industry transfer trend.Accordingly, this study put more emphasis on explanations of China’s external surplus, and evaluates the role of demanders and price effect as well. The first part describes the background and significance of the research with a summary of the features of China’s current account surplus and global industry transfer. The second part reviews the existing literature in this field. The third part studies and concludes some phenomenon appeared in China’s rapid economic growth in combination with related data, including high investment ratio, widened income gap, incomplete of the initially built factor market, both of which are significant characters related to the structural transformation.The fourth part builds an OLG model to analyses the effect of population growth, change of population age structure, labor mobility, imperfect of factor market and income gap on different group’s savings-investment behavior. The fifth part does the empirical test with Chinese provincial data, verifying that a variety of elements have effect on savings-investment balanceand examining how those factor affect savings and investment.The sixth part studies the relationship between RMB and net export based on a recalling of RMB exchange regime reform. The seventh chapter analyses the influence of external demand on China’s current account surplus from aspects of globalization, industry transfer, external economic cycles and other factors. The end makes a conclusion of the whole paper, expects China’s current account trend and providescorresponding policy in combination with the direction of adjustment of international and internal economy.