信息化促进中国产业结构转变的实证研究——基于中国31省（直辖市/自治区）1999-2009年的面板数据研究2002年党的十六大第一次明确提出“走一条新型工业化道路”的发展目标，并清晰定义了中国新型工业化的主要特点，即以信息化带动工业化，以工业化促进信息化，走出一条科技含量高、环境污染少、资源消耗低、经济效益好、人力资源优势得到充分发挥的新型工业化道路，自此，“信息化”便成为新型工业化的主要目标和发展方向。论文以31个省级地区作为样本，系统研究了1999-2009年信息化对中国不同产业、不同行业经济增长的影响情况，进一步探索信息化促进产业结构转变的相关理论，为中国新型工业化的发展探索信息化的发展路径。论文共分为如下三个部分：第一部分是第1章和第2章，主要是介绍论文的研究背景，总结当前国内外相关研究的主要进展，并对信息化促进产业结构转变的理论进行分析，研究发现信息化通过改变了传统经济活动的核心资源，生产方式、经济结构、经济制度等方面催生出新的高利润的信息产业部门、改造了传统产业，并通过产业分化、重组、产业替代以及产业融合的过程不断促使产业结构进行转变。第二部分是第3章至第6章，首先总结美国、日本、欧盟和韩国信息化促进产业结构转变的国际经验，然后基于修正的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数，将信息化发展指数指标作为和劳动、资本同样重要的生产要素引入到生产函数中，通过构建我国31省（直辖市/自治区）的面板数据模型定量研究信息化对我国国民经济、三次产业、代表性行业经济增长的拉动作用，发现信息化对不同地区不同产业、不同行业经济增长的拉动作用具有显著地差异，进而提出信息化促进经济增长存在“临界域”和“J效应”两个特征。第三部分是第7章，总结了论文研究的主要结论：由于信息化促进经济增长存在“临界域”和“J效应”两个特征，因此信息化是转变经济增长方式和经济体实现规模报酬递增的重要途径；在此基础上指出，应当完善信息化的战略研究明确信息化作为国民经济的发展方向，进一步加强信息基础设施建设，让信息化水平突破其可以拉动经济增长的“临界域”，发挥信息化拉动经济增长的“J”效应，进而实现产业结构的优化升级。

Empirical Research on the Contribution of Informatization in Accelerating the Transformation of Industrial Structure:Evidence from panel data for 31 provinces in ChinaTaking a new road to industrialization was first proposed in the 16th National Congress of the CPC in 2002. That means it is necessary to persist in using IT to propel industrialization, which will, in turn, stimulate IT application, blazing a new trail to industrialization featuring high scientific and technological content, good economic returns, low resources consumption, little environmental pollution and a full display of advantages in human resources.This dissertation examines the relationship between informatization and the transformation of industrial structure in 31 provinces in China in the period(1999-2009)to see how the contribution of informatization varied in different provinces. The dissertation made a new panel data model by introducing informatization development index(IDI) into improved Cobb-Douglas production function. The full text is divided into three parts (seven chapters) as follows:The first part is from Chapter 1 to Chapter 2. First, the research background and current domestic and international achievements in related research fields were summarized. Second, it focuses on analyzing the theory of informatization in changing industrial structure, especially the operation ways.The second part is from Chapter 3 to Chapter 6, which is the core of the dissertation. Chapter 3 summarizes the international experience of informatization in adjustment of industrial structure in the United States, Japan, EU and South Korea. In Chapter 4, the panel data model results show that the contribution of informatization varied in different provinces’ industrial sectors, finding two characteristics "critical region" and "J effect" of informatization in promoting the transformation of industrial structure. In Chapter 5 and Chapter 6, the focus is to analyze how informatization affects thrice industrial and emerging industry, which is key factor to changing industrial structures.The third part is Chapter 7, the major research conclusions and consequent policy suggestions are summarized. Because of two characteristics "critical region" and "J effect", informatization has become a very important way to promote the transformation of industrial structure and to realize increasing returns to scale. So we should implement the strategy of informatization through further strengthening the information infrastructure in order to break through its "critical region", and make full use of its "J effect" to promote economic growth to accelerate the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.