中文题名: | 数字化对人口素质的影响研究 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 025200 |
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学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 应用统计硕士 |
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学位年度: | 2024 |
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研究方向: | 经济与金融统计 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
提交日期: | 2024-06-16 |
答辩日期: | 2024-05-22 |
外文题名: | THE IMPACT OF DIGITIZATION ON POPULATION QUALITY |
中文关键词: | |
外文关键词: | Digitization ; Comprehensive population quality ; Two-way fixed effects ; Heterogeneity analysis |
中文摘要: |
党的二十大报告指出,中国式现代化是人口规模巨大的现代化。在老龄化、少子化、区域增减分化等人口变动趋势无法逆转的时代背景下,如何从人口素质着手,通过提高现有国民综合素质有效促进现代化技术提升、产业优化乃至机制革新,是当前中国在实现社会主义现代化进程中亟待应对的挑战。中国数字化转型大背景下,数字设施革新、产业升级等数字领域建设无疑为人口素质提升创造了新途径、新机遇,但现有文献并未对两者间影响机制进行量化研究。因此,建立科学完善的评价指标体系,测算、表征我国各省域数字化和人口素质现状,并深入探究数字化对人口综合素质的作用路径,均具备重要创新价值和现实意义。本文研究的核心思路及主要内容如下:首先通过对近年来相关文献进行搜集查阅,对数字化和人口素质的内涵进行清晰界定,构建出两个科学完善的综合指标评价体系:将数字化水平指标评价体系划分为数字基础设施建设、数字产业发展水平、数字环境水平3个一级指标,及13个细分二级指标;将人口综合素质水平指标评价体系划分为人口身体素质、人口科学文化素质2个一级指标,及6个细分二级指标。其次,对2011-2019年我国31个省(市、自治区)的数字化水平及人口综合素质水平进行测算表征,并利用统计方法对各省域数字化和人口综合素质的时空发展特征对比分析,对两者协同发展关系形成初步认知。最后,在实证部分利用双向固定效应模型量化发掘数字化对人口综合素质的影响机制,为保证模型可信度,选用数字化综合水平滞后一期指标值、1984 年每万人固定电话用户量(户) 与上年全国互联网宽带用户量的交互项作为工具变量对其内生性进行检验,通过保留直辖市、缩短时间窗口对其稳健性加以检验,并划分不同数字化程度城市群、替换解释变量与被解释变量进行异质性分析。结合理论和实证分析结果,研究发现:首先,中国各省份的数字化水平和人口综合素质水平存在区域失衡问题,东部沿海及内陆发达省域在两个指标上表现均明显优于其他省域。其次,数字化主要通过数字化基础设施和数字环境对人口综合素质水平产生正向促进作用,且数字化综合水平主要对人口科学文化素质产生正向影响,对人口身体素质存在负向影响。此外,数字化对人口综合素质的正向影响机制在高等数字化程度城市群作用更显著。最后,根据研究结论提出相应政策建立,为促进数字化转型下人口高质量发展提供理论依据。 |
外文摘要: |
The report of the Twentieth Party Congress points out that Chinese-style modernization is a modernization with a huge population. Against the backdrop of irreversible demographic trends such as aging, childlessness, and regional growth and decline, how to start from the quality of the population and effectively promote modern technology upgrading, industrial optimization, and even mechanism innovation by improving the comprehensive quality of the existing nationals is a challenge that China needs to address in the process of realizing socialist modernization. Under the background of China's digital transformation, the innovation of digital facilities, industrial upgrading and other digital fields have undoubtedly created new ways and opportunities for improving the quality of the population, but the existing literature has not quantitatively researched the mechanism of influence between the two. Therefore, it is of great innovative value and practical significance to establish a scientific and perfect evaluation index system to measure and characterize the status of digitization and population quality in various provinces and regions of China, as well as to explore the role of digitization on the comprehensive quality of the population.The core ideas and main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, through the collection and review of relevant literature in recent years, the connotation of digitization and population quality is clearly defined, and two scientific and perfect comprehensive indicator evaluation systems are constructed: the evaluation system of digitization level indicators is divided into three first-level indicators, namely, digital infrastructure construction, level of digital industry development and level of digital environment, as well as 13 subdivided second-level indicators. The evaluation system of indicators for the level of comprehensive quality of the population is divided into two first-level indicators, namely, the physical quality of the population and the scientific and cultural quality of the population, as well as six subdivided second-level indicators. Secondly, the digitization level and the level of comprehensive quality of the population in 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) of China from 2011 to 2019 are measured and characterized, and the spatial and temporal development characteristics of digitization and comprehensive quality of the population in each province and region are comparatively analyzed using statistical methods, so as to form a preliminary cognition of the synergistic relationship between the two. Finally, in the empirical part, the two-way fixed-effects model is used to quantitatively explore the influence mechanism of digitization on the comprehensive quality of the population. In order to ensure the credibility of the model, the lagged one-period index value of the comprehensive level of digitization, the interaction term between the number of fixed-line telephone subscribers per 10,000 people in 1984 and the number of Internet broadband subscribers of the whole country in the previous year are chosen as the instrumental variables to test its endogeneity, and its robustness is tested by retaining municipalities and shortening the time window. Its robustness is tested by retaining municipalities directly under the central government and shortening the time window, and heterogeneity is analyzed by dividing urban agglomerations with different degrees of digitization and replacing the explanatory variables with the explanatory variables.Combining the results of theoretical and empirical analyses, the study finds that: firstly, there is a regional imbalance in the level of digitization and the level of comprehensive quality of the population in each province in China, with the eastern coastal and inland developed provinces significantly outperforming the other provinces in both indicators. Second, digitization has a positive effect on the comprehensive quality of the population mainly through digital infrastructure and digital environment, and the comprehensive level of digitization has a positive effect on the scientific and cultural quality of the population and a negative effect on the physical quality of the population. In addition, the positive effect of digitalization on the comprehensive quality of the population is more significant in urban agglomerations with a high degree of digitalization. Finally, according to the research findings, corresponding policies are proposed to provide a theoretical basis for promoting the high-quality development of the population under the digital transformation. |
参考文献总数: | 49 |
馆藏号: | 硕025200/24030 |
开放日期: | 2025-06-16 |