本文旨在探讨基于HPM融入概率概念的教学设计。首先，笔者梳理出HPM融入概率的方式和原则。其次，通过对整个概率概念历史的梳理，笔者整理出了概率概念的发展历程。最后，笔者写出了基于HPM的概率概念的教学设计。在教学设计中，运用顺应式概率的赌博起源和概率从描述性定义发展到古典定义的历程融入问题引入和例题巩固阶段，体现了选择简便性和趣味引导性的原则；运用附加式，融入概率公理化思想的希尔伯特和将概率公理化的科莫沃洛夫的数学史融入拓展延伸阶段，体现了历史真实性原则；基于复制式，将概率概念的发展的数学思想融入拓展延伸阶段，体现了历史真实性和目的明确性原则；根据重构式，将概率概念的整个发展历程和投骰子问题的变式融入例题巩固阶段，体现了历史真实性原则。

This paper aims to explore the teaching design based on HPM into the concept of probability. First of all, the author sorts out the ways and principles of HPM integration into probability. Secondly, through the combing of the history of the whole probability concept, the author sorted out the development process of the probability concept. Finally, the author writes the teaching design of the concept of probability based on HPM. In the teaching design, the use of adaptive probability of gambling origin and probability from the descriptive definition to the classical definition of the process into the problem introduction and example consolidation stage, reflecting the choice of simple and interesting guiding principle ; using the additional formula, Hilbert, which integrates the idea of probability axiomatization, and Komolov 's history of mathematics, which integrates the axiomatization of probability, into the extended stage, embodies the principle of historical authenticity. Based on the replication, the mathematical thought of the development of the concept of probability is integrated into the extended stage, which embodies the principle of historical authenticity and purpose clarity. According to the reconstruction formula, the whole development process of the concept of probability and the variant of the dice problem are integrated into the consolidation stage of the example, which embodies the principle of historical authenticity.