自工业革命以来，地球系统进入“人类世”，人类活动以前所未有的规模和速度影响着地球系统，造成全球生态环境大幅退化，社会经济发展与环境保护之间的矛盾日益突出。因此，在满足人类合理需求的前提下，将人类社会经济活动控制在环境可承载限度内，是实现可持续发展的关键。联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）为可持续发展提供了一个综合的全球行动计划。然而，对可持续发展的评估以及对SDGs进展的跟踪与监测仍然面临巨大挑战。作为可持续发展的新研究成果，安全且公正运行空间框架为在全球范围内协调人类活动与资源环境之间的关系提供了科学依据。然而，少有研究从社会-生态系统的整体性出发，探究环境可持续性与社会经济可持续性的协调发展问题。因此，以安全且公正运行空间视角来评估环境与社会经济可持续性的时空格局、相互作用关系及影响因素，对于实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义。

本研究以中国为研究区，基于安全且公正运行空间框架与SDGs框架，构建了一个多尺度的、定量化、可操作性强的区域可持续发展评价框架。首先，本研究从SDGs维度及基本福祉（水-能源-粮食关联系统）视角定量评估了人类福祉状况。基于本研究的分析框架，在全国层面和30个省份（含自治区和直辖市，由于数据限制未包括台湾省、西藏自治区、香港和澳门特别行政区），对中国2000-2018年的环境与社会经济可持续发展水平的时空格局进行定量评估。为了进一步评价可持续发展的效率特征，本研究利用数据包络分析定量评估了各项环境足迹转化为人类福祉的效率，并结合空间自相关指数分析效率的空间集聚特征。其次，利用耦合协调度模型定量评估环境绩效与人类福祉间的耦合协调关系。为了研究影响耦合协调度的关键驱动因素，本研究采用增强回归树模型量化环境、经济和社会等驱动因素在耦合协调度变化中相对贡献及影响方式，识别影响耦合协调度的主导因子。最后，利用差分整合移动平均自回归模型预测环境与社会经济可持续性时间序列的变化趋势，分析中国到2030年实现可持续发展面临的机遇与挑战。

本研究的主要结论如下：

（1）基于数据包络分析的效率评估结果表明，水-能源-粮食关联系统各子系统的部分效率及整体效率均具有明显的空间异质性，相对有效的省份主要分布在东部地区，构成了全国水-能源-粮食关联系统的生产前沿面。水-能源-粮食关联系统耦合协调度主要呈现出从东南向西北递减的变化格局。根据水-能源-粮食关联系统的效率特征，本研究将中国省级行政区聚类为五种模式，并提出相应的资源可持续利用建议。

（2）以定义的安全且公正运行空间为可持续标准，中国在2000-2018年期间没有完全实现可持续发展。从环境维度来看，土地系统变化和淡水利用表现为可持续状态，而气候变化、氮循环和磷循环表现为不可持续状态。在省级尺度上，大多数省份在淡水利用和土地系统变化表现为可持续状态，气候变化、氮循环和磷循环的环境可持续性表现出空间异质性，可持续性水平在东部地区更高。从人类福祉角度来看，到2018年，食品安全、能源、收入、教育和就业福祉已达到SDGs的标准。在研究期间，部分省份的环境可持续性呈下降趋势，而大多数省份的人类福祉有不同幅度的提升。与全球平均水平相比，中国在环境可持续性表现有待于改善，但在人类福祉方面却表现优异。环境足迹转化为人类福祉的效率具有明显的空间异质性，东部和中部地区的效率水平更高。可持续发展的效率呈现出一定的空间集聚特征，以效率低低集聚为主，主要分布在西部地区。

（3）对于环境与社会经济可持续性的耦合关系特征来说，中国在2000-2018年间环境绩效与人类福祉中度协调耦合发展。在省级尺度上，耦合协调程度具有一定的空间异质性，表现为从东向西递减的变化趋势，并在研究期间呈现出显著上升趋势。基于增强回归树的影响因素表明，环境绩效与人类福祉间的耦合协调度主要受到环境因素的影响，草地面积、植被覆盖度与城市化率为关键的影响因素。草地面积和植被覆盖率的增加对耦合协调度的提高主要表现为促进作用，城市化率的增加对耦合协调度的提高主要表现为负向作用。为了促进区域可持续发展，根据耦合协调度大小及变化趋势将中国省级行政区划分为四种发展模式：高水平耦合发展显著、高水平耦合不显著、低水平耦合发展不显著和低水平耦合发展显著类型。针对各发展模式所处的可持续发展水平与影响因素，进一步提出了向可持续发展转型与过渡的调控对策，即协同发展策略、升级发展策略、转型发展策略和弥补短板发展策略。本研究提出的研究框架、方法体系和对策建议适应用于其他国家或地区。

（4）预测模拟结果显示，到2030年中国各省级行政区在全面实现SDGs方面仍然面临挑战。在2019-2030年间，环境可持续性指标总体呈现平稳上升趋势，人类福祉指标得到大幅度改善。到2030年，食品安全、收入、能源和就业福祉在所有省级行政区均已实现可持续发展。

Since the Industrial Revolution, the Earth system has entered the Anthropocene, where human activities have affected the Earth system with an unprecedented scale and speed, causing significant environmental degradation. Conflicts between socio-economic development and environmental protection has become more and more prominent. Therefore, it’s crucial to control socio-economic activities within the environmental limits while meeting human basic needs for achieving sustainable development. The United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide an integrated global action plan for sustainable development. However, it remains a great challenge to assess sustainability and monitor the progress on the SDGs. As a new research result on sustainable development, the safe and just operating space framework provides the scientific basis for reconciling human activities with the resource environment on a global scale. However, few studies have investigated the coupling coordination relationships between environmental sustainability and socio-economic sustainability from the perspective of the holistic nature of social-ecological system. Therefore, it is important to assess the spatial and temporal patterns, interactions and driving factors of environmental and socio-economic sustainability from the perspective of a safe and just operating space to achieve regional sustainable development.

This study takes China as the study area and constructs a multi-scale, quantitative and operational regional sustainable development assessment framework by integrating the safe and just operating space and the SDGs framework. First, this study quantitatively assessed human well-being from the perspective of SDGs and basic well-being (water-energy-food linkage system) dimensions. Based on the analytical framework of this study, the spatial and temporal patterns of environmental and socioeconomic sustainable development levels in China from 2000 to 2018 were quantitatively assessed at the national level and in 30 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government; Taiwan, Tibet, Hong Kong and Macao were not included due to data limitations). To further evaluate the efficiency characteristics of sustainable development, this study quantitatively assessed the efficiency of each environmental footprint into human well-being using data envelopment analysis, and analyzed the spatial clustering characteristics of efficiency in conjunction with spatial autocorrelation indices. Second, the coupling coordination relationship between environmental performance and human well-being is quantitatively assessed using a coupling coordination degree model. In order to investigate the key drivers affecting the coupling coordination degree, this study uses boosted regression tree method to quantify the relative contributions of environmental, economic and social drivers in the changes of coupling coordination degree and partial dependency of influence, and to identify the dominant factors affecting the coupling coordination degree. Finally, the autoregressive integrated moving average model is used to predict the trends of environmental and socioeconomic sustainability time series and analyze the opportunities and challenges for China in achieving sustainable development by 2030.

The main findings of this study are as follows:

(1) The efficiency assessment results based on data envelopment analysis put forward show that the partial efficiency and overall efficiency of each subsystem of the water-energy-food nexus system have obvious spatial heterogeneity, and the relatively efficient provinces are mainly distributed in the eastern region, which constitute the production frontier surface of the national water-energy-food nexus system. The coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food nexus system mainly shows a decreasing pattern from southeast to northwest. Based on the efficiency characteristics of the water-energy-food nexus system, this study clusters China's provincial administrative regions into five patterns and proposes corresponding recommendations for sustainable resource utilization.

(2) Using the defined safe and just operating space as the sustainability criterion, China has not fully achieved sustainable development during 2000-2018. From the environmental dimension, land system change and freshwater use show sustainable status, while climate change, nitrogen cycle and phosphorus cycle show unsustainable status. At the provincial scale, most provinces showed sustainable status in freshwater use and land system change, and environmental sustainability in climate change, nitrogen cycle and phosphorus cycle showed spatial heterogeneity, with sustainability levels higher in the eastern region. In terms of human well-being, food security, energy, income, education, and employment well-being have met the SDGs by 2018. During the study period, some provinces showed a decreasing trend in environmental sustainability, while most provinces showed varying degrees of improvement in human well-being. Compared to the global average, China has room for improvement in environmental sustainability performance, but outperforms in human well-being. There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the efficiency of converting the environmental footprint into human well-being, with higher levels of efficiency in the eastern and central regions. The efficiency of sustainable development shows certain spatial clustering characteristics, with low-low efficiency clustering dominating, mainly in the western region.

(3) For the characteristics of the coupling coordination relationship between environmental and socioeconomic sustainability, China has developed a moderately coordinated coupling between environmental performance and human well-being during 2000-2018. At the provincial scale, the degree of coupling coordination has some spatial heterogeneity, showing a decreasing trend from east to west and a significant upward trend during the study period. The results of boosted regression tree indicate that coupling coordination degree between environmental performance and human well-being is mainly influenced by environmental factors, with grassland area, vegetation cover and urbanization rate as the key factors. The increase of grassland area and vegetation cover mainly shows a positive effect on the improvement of coupling coordination degree, while the increase of urbanization rate mainly shows a negative effect on the improvement of coupling coordination degree. In order to promote regional sustainable development, this study classifies China's provinces into four development patterns based on the magnitude and changing trends of coupling coordination degree during the study period: coupled and developed, coupled and underdeveloped, uncoupled and underdeveloped, and uncoupled and developed patterns. Based on the sustainable development level and driving factors of each development pattern, the development strategies for transition to sustainable development are further proposed, i.e., synergistic strategy, promotion strategy, transformative strategy, and fill-gap strategy. The research framework, methodological system and sustainable development strategy suggestions proposed in this study are broadly applicable to other countries or regions to actualize sustainable development.

(4) The prediction simulation results show that China's provinces still face challenges in fully achieving the SDGs by 2030. During the period of 2019-2030, environmental sustainability indicators generally show a steady upward trend, and human well-being indicators improve substantially. By 2030, food security, income, energy, and employment well-being have been achieved in all provinces in a sustainable manner.