全球化背景下，贸易深刻影响着全球和各国的可持续发展水平。一方面，贸易可以调节国内生产要素的利用率，调整经济结构，改善国家间的供求关系，能在优化全球资源配置、促进经济增长及提高社会福祉等方面发挥重要作用。另一方面，贸易深刻影响了世界各国的经济、社会和环境，改变了商品和服务的生产消费模式以及位置和规模。现有研究已经在可持续发展评估以及国际贸易对可持续发展水平的影响方面取得了很好的进展。然而，国际贸易和国内贸易对多种可持续发展目标的影响仍缺乏一个全面的认识，特别是不同区域之间的贸易伙伴关系如何影响可持续发展目标的实现。

本文的目标是评估贸易对实现联合国可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs）的影响。为此，基于“评估框架发展-影响识别-情景分析”的总体研究思路，综合利用多尺度、多指标和多要素的方法开展了研究工作。首先，结合联合国可持续发展目标和多区域投入产出（multi-regional input-output, MRIO）模型，发展了一个全新的评估框架，评估了贸易及贸易伙伴关系对可持续发展目标的影响。然后，分别从国际和国内两个尺度，分别分析了国际贸易和国内贸易对全球和中国实现可持续发展目标的影响。最后，利用反事实情景分析，分别在全球和中国评估了“双倍贸易”和“技术传递”情景下贸易伙伴关系对全球和中国实现可持续发展目标的影响。本研究主要从以下三个方面开展工作。

（1）发展了一个全新的评估框架，评估区域贸易及贸易伙伴关系对区域可持续发展目标的影响。首先，基于区域的多种环境社会经济影响，建立起这些影响与SDG指标和具体目标之间的对应关系。然后，利用多区域投入产出模型，量化在区域贸易中隐含流动的环境社会经济影响的总量及其贸易转移量。在此基础上，利用指数打分法进一步量化各SDG目标的得分及SDG综合得分，最后，基于联合国可持续发展目标中的贸易伙伴关系（SDG 17.11和SDG 17.6），建立反事实情景分析，假设了无贸易情景、双倍贸易情景和高效率情景，以此评估了不同贸易伙伴情景对不同区域实现可持续发展目标的影响。

（2）定量评估了贸易对全球和中国多个可持续发展目标的影响。在全球尺度上，构建了全球124种环境社会经济影响和11个SDG目标的关系，量化和评估了1995-2020年25年间全球各国可持续发展水平的动态变化，识别了国际贸易对全球各国实现可持续发展目标的影响。在中国尺度上，基于中国各省的水、能、碳和耕地4种环境影响，将其与7个SDG目标相对应，量化评估了2017年中国和各省的可持续发展水平，分析了国内贸易对中国和各省实现可持续发展目标的影响。

（3）定量评估了不同区域贸易伙伴关系变化对可持续发展目标的影响。结合SDG 17（加强可持续发展的伙伴关系），分别在全球和中国尺度，设置了“双倍贸易”情景和“高效率”情景，探究了贸易伙伴关系对全球和中国的可持续发展目标的影响。研究可为制定更高效和可持续的贸易政策和“双循环”政策提供理论依据和实践指导。

主要发现包括以下三个方面。

（1）本文新发展的评估框架提供了系统性、综合性的评估方法，可以定量评估区域贸易及贸易伙伴关系（即SDG 17）对区域可持续发展目标的影响。这一评估框架有以下的优势。首先，全面考虑了环境、社会和经济三个维度的多种影响要素，基于多个指标全方位探讨了贸易对SDG目标的影响。第二，框架综合利用了MRIO模型和反事实情景分析，可以设置多种贸易伙伴关系的情景，用来评估区域贸易及贸易伙伴关系（SDG 17）对区域可持续发展目标的影响，为贸易政策的制定提供理论和实践参考。第三，框架具有很强的动态性、灵活性、扩展性和迁移性。

（2）国际贸易推动了全球可持续发展水平的提高，提高了大多数发达国家的可持续发展水平，降低了多数发展中国家的可持续发展水平。1995-2020年，与无贸易情景相比，国际贸易提高了全球可持续发展目标的综合得分（即SDGct）。在绝大多数年份，有贸易情况下全球SDGct得分均比无贸易情景下SDGct得分高出0.1%-2.2%。进一步看，发达国家的SDGct得分在有贸易情况下比无贸易情景下高出0.6-1.8分。发展中国家的SDGct得分在有贸易情况下始终垫底，比无贸易情景下低了0.3-1分。在中国，国内贸易提高了中国的可持续发展水平，同时提高了发达省份和发展中省份的总体可持续发展水平。2017年，有贸易情况下中国SDGct得分为75.7分，无贸易情景下全国的SDGct得分为71.0分，前者高出后者6.5%。有贸易情况下发达省份和发展中省份的SDGct得分均高于无贸易情景下相应省份的SDGct得分。

（3）双倍贸易情景和高效率情景可有效推动全球可持续发展水平的提高。在全球尺度，1995-2020年间，双倍贸易情景下全球SDGct得分始终比有贸易情况下高出0.9%-2.2%。在中国，双倍贸易情景下2017年中国的SDGct得分为89.3分，高于有贸易情况下18%。高效率情景下全球SDGct得分比基准情景下高出5.7%-46.6%。中国的SDGct得分（80.8分）比基准情景的得分高出6.7%。

总体上看，论文的创新点主要体现在两个方面。首先是在方法上发展了一个全新的、系统的、完整的评估框架，探究了区域贸易及贸易伙伴关系（SDG 17）对区域可持续发展目标的影响。其次，在认识上丰富了贸易及贸易伙伴关系对全球和中国实现可持续发展目标的影响。本文经由SDG 17这个角度，挖掘了贸易政策、合作关系对全球和中国可持续发展目标的影响，填补了相关研究领域的定量评估的空白。研究发现，加强国际和国内的贸易伙伴关系对于促进全球和中国不同地区实现可持续发展目标整体有积极效应。由于“后发者优势”，进一步促进发展中地区的自由贸易和技术革新，有可能加快全球实现可持续发展目标的进程，缩小与发达地区的差距。

在未来的贸易形势中，建议增加发展中地区的出口量以促进当地的经济增长和产业升级。对低收入地区来说，增加产品的出口将使发展中地区受益，通过出口贸易实现经济持续增长是实现可持续发展目标的有力途径。通过增加出口，发展中地区可以更好地提高产品质量和附加值，推动本地产业向外贸型产业转型。增加出口还有助于发展中地区获得更多的外部市场机会，从而促进经济增长和就业增加，增强地区的经济韧性和可持续发展能力，这也有助于促进区域间的经济协调发展。此外，建议促进发达地区对发展中地区的技术交流与支持。技术交流有助于促进可持续发展理念的传播和实践。发达地区往往在环保、节能减排和绿色生产等方面有较为成熟的经验和做法。通过向发展中地区传授先进的环保和可持续发展理念，促进发展中地区加强环境保护意识，采取可持续的生产方式，推动区域经济发展与环境保护的协调发展。

In the context of globalization, trade has a profound impact on the sustainable development level of the world and countries. On the one hand, trade can regulate the utilization rate of domestic production factors, adjust economic structure, improve supply and demand relations between countries, and play an important role in optimizing global resource allocation, promoting economic growth, and improving social welfare. On the other hand, trade has profoundly influenced the economies, societies, and environments of countries around the world, changing the production and consumption patterns, location, and scale of goods and services. Existing research has made good progress in sustainable development assessment and the impact of international trade on sustainable development levels. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive understanding of the impact of international and domestic trade on various sustainable development goals, especially how trade partnerships between different regions affect the achievement of sustainable development goals.

The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of trade on achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To this end, based on the overall research approach of "framework development-impact identification-scenario analysis", research work was carried out comprehensively using multi-scale, multi-indicator, and multi element methods. Firstly, combining the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and multi-regional input-output, The MRIO model has developed a new assessment framework that evaluates the impact of trade and trade partnerships on sustainable development goals. Then, the impact of international and domestic trade on the global and China's achievement of sustainable development goals was analyzed at both international and domestic scales. Finally, using counterfactual scenario analysis, the impact of trade partnerships on achieving sustainable development goals globally and in China was evaluated under the scenarios of "double trade" and "technology transfer", respectively. This study mainly conducts work from the following three aspects.

(1) A novel evaluation framework has been developed to assess the impact of regional trade and trade partnerships on regional sustainable development goals. Firstly, based on the various environmental, social, and economic impacts of the region, establish corresponding relationships between these impacts and SDG indicators and specific goals. Then, using a multi-regional input-output model, quantify the total amount of environmental, social and economic impacts implicit in regional trade and their trade transfer volume. On this basis, the index scoring method was used to further quantify the scores of each SDG goal and the comprehensive SDG score. Finally, based on the trade partnership in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 17.11 and SDG 17.6), a counterfactual scenario analysis was established, assuming no trade scenario, double trade scenario, and high efficiency scenario, in order to evaluate the impact of different trade partner scenarios on achieving sustainable development goals in different regions.

(2) Quantitatively evaluated the impact of trade on multiple sustainable development goals globally and in China. On a global scale, a relationship between 124 environmental, social and economic impacts and 11 SDG goals was constructed, quantifying and evaluating the dynamic changes in sustainable development levels of countries worldwide from 1995 to 2020, and identifying the impact of international trade on achieving sustainable development goals in countries around the world. At the Chinese scale, based on the four environmental impacts of water, energy, carbon, and cropland in various provinces of China, corresponding to seven SDG goals, the sustainable development level of China and each province in 2017 was quantitatively evaluated, and the impact of domestic trade on achieving sustainable development goals in China and each province was analyzed.

(3) Quantitatively evaluated the impact of changes in trade partnerships in different regions on sustainable development goals. Combining SDG 17 (Strengthen Partnership for Sustainable Development), set up "double trade" and "high efficiency" scenarios at the global and Chinese scales, respectively, to explore the impact of trade partnerships on the sustainable development goals of both the world and China. Research can provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for formulating more efficient and sustainable trade policies and "dual circulation" policies.

The main findings include the following three aspects.

(1) The newly developed evaluation framework in this article provides a systematic and comprehensive evaluation method that can quantitatively evaluate the impact of regional trade and trade partnerships (i.e., SDG 17) on regional sustainable development goals. This evaluation framework has the following advantages. Firstly, a comprehensive consideration was given to various influencing factors from the three dimensions of environment, society, and economy, and the impact of trade on SDG goals was comprehensively explored based on multiple indicators. Secondly, the framework comprehensively utilizes the MRIO model and counterfactual scenario analysis, which can set up multiple scenarios of trade partnerships to evaluate the impact of regional trade and trade partnerships (SDG 17) on regional sustainable development goals, providing theoretical and practical references for trade policy formulation. Thirdly, the framework has strong dynamism, flexibility, scalability, and transferability.

(2) International trade has driven the improvement of global sustainable development level, improved the sustainable development level of most developed countries, and lowered the sustainable development level of most developing countries. From 1995 to 2020, compared to the no trade scenario, international trade increased the overall score of global sustainable development goals (i.e., SDGct). In the vast majority of years, the global SDGct score with trade is 0.1%-2.2% higher than the SDGct score without trade. Furthermore, the SDGct scores of developed countries are 0.6-1.8 points higher in the presence of trade than in the absence of trade. The SDGct score of developing countries consistently ranks bottom in the presence of trade, which is 0.3-1 points lower than in the absence of trade. In China, domestic trade has improved the level of sustainable development, while also enhancing the overall sustainable development level of developed and developing provinces. In 2017, China's SDGct score was 75.7 points in the presence of trade, and 71.0 points in the absence of trade, with the former being 6.5% higher than the latter. The SDGct scores of developed and developing provinces with trade are higher than those of corresponding provinces without trade.

(3) The double trade scenario and high efficiency scenario can effectively promote the improvement of global sustainable development level. On a global scale, from 1995 to 2020, the global SDGct score under the double trade scenario was consistently 0.9%-2.2% higher than under the trade scenario. In China, the SDGct score for 2017 under the double trade scenario was 89.3 points, which is higher than 18% under the trade scenario. The global SDGct score under the high-efficiency scenario is 5.7%-46.6% higher than that in the benchmark scenario. China's SDGct score (80.8 points) is 6.7% higher than the benchmark scenario score.

Overall, the innovation of the paper is mainly reflected in two aspects. Firstly, a new, systematic, and comprehensive evaluation framework has been developed in terms of methodology, exploring the impact of regional trade and trade partnerships (SDG 17) on regional sustainable development goals. Secondly, it enriches the understanding of the impact of trade and trade partnerships on achieving sustainable development goals globally and in China. This article explores the impact of trade policies and cooperative relationships on global and Chinese sustainable development goals from the perspective of SDG 17, filling the gap in quantitative evaluation in related research fields. Research has found that strengthening international and domestic trade partnerships has a positive overall effect on promoting the achievement of sustainable development goals in different regions of the world and China. Due to the advantage of latecomers, further promoting free trade and technological innovation in developing regions may accelerate the global process of achieving sustainable development goals and narrow the gap with developed regions.

In the future trade situation, it is recommended to increase the export volume of developing regions to promote local economic growth and industrial upgrading. For low-income regions, increasing product exports will benefit developing regions, and achieving sustained economic growth through export trade is a powerful way to achieve sustainable development goals. By increasing exports, developing regions can better improve product quality and added value, and promote the transformation of local industries into foreign trade-oriented industries. Increasing exports also helps developing regions access more external market opportunities, thereby promoting economic growth and employment growth, enhancing regional economic resilience and sustainable development capabilities, and promoting coordinated economic development between regions. In addition, it is recommended to promote technological exchange and support between developed regions and developing regions. Technical exchange helps to promote the dissemination and practice of sustainable development concepts. Developed regions often have mature experience and practices in environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction, and green production. By imparting advanced environmental protection and sustainable development concepts to developing regions, promoting their awareness of environmental protection, adopting sustainable production methods, and promoting coordinated development between regional economic development and environmental protection.