房地产市场参与主体的预期是影响房地产价格的重要因素之一。近年来，随着中国房地产市场化改革的深化，房地产价格的整体水平以较快速度上涨，无论是实践层面还是理论层面，对预期和房价之间相互影响关系进行实证研究都非常必要。房地产市场预期指市场中供求双方设法利用一切可获得的信息对所关心经济变量在未来的变动状况作出尽可能准确估计的一种主观心理现象，该因素对于消费者和开发商的决策以及政府部门宏观调控均十分重要。噪音交易、羊群效应、价格正反馈交易决定了市场预期与价格波动之间的作用机制，而房地产自身属性、货币供应量过度以及信息不完全、不对称则推动了预期在中国房地产市场的形成。数据显示表明样本期间的中国房地产价格指数同代表市场需求者预期的房地产景气指数，以及代表市场供给者预期的企业家信心指数的变化趋势存在一致性，均具有较明显的时间趋势。通过构建一个向量自回归模型，然后进行协整检验，格兰杰因果关系检验，脉冲响应函数分析和方差分析，结果表明：长期内预期和房价之间存在协调的均衡关系；短期内两者具有相互作用的正反馈关系；预期因素滞后作用于房价，其中起主导作用的是供给者预期；房价变化在不存在时滞情况下有效地作用于供给者和消费者的预期；供给者预期能显著影响消费者预期。

The Expectation exerts an important impact on housing prices.In recent years,with the generally rapid rise of national housing prices,the Empirical Study on the correlation between housing price and expectation is very important.Expectation factors of real estate market is views of market participants on the future changes in economic conditions, the factors is very important for consumers,developers and government departments. Noise trading, herding effect, positive feedback of trading price are the mechanism of action of the price and expectation factors, and real estate's own property, excessive money supply, as well as incomplete information asymmetry promote expectation factors` formation of the real estate market in China.The results show that: during the sample representative of the Chinese Housing Sales Prices Index，Real Estate Climate Index and Entrepreneurs Confidence Index all have obvious time trend.By constructing a vector autoregressive model, and then proceed to Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis and variance analysis, the results show that:on the long term, there have been the balance ralationship between housing price and the expectation factors; On the short term, there have been positive feedback relationship between housing price and the expectation factors; Expectation factors hysteresis affect housing prices, and the expectation of suppliers played a leading role; Housing price affect expectation factors with no delay.