近几十年，青海湖流域生态退化严重、流域生态需水与社会经济需水矛盾突出，因此，研究流域水资源承载力与优化配置对缓解青海湖水量减少、保护流域生态环境及保障社会经济稳步发展具有重要意义。本文利用青海湖流域的水文与社会经济数据，结合农牧民生活用水实地调查，以2008年为现状水平年，2020年、2030年为规划水平年，分析了青海湖流域的水量供需平衡，在此基础上应用主成分分析法评价了流域内各行政区的水资源承载力，并建立了水资源优化配置的系统动力学模型，探讨了优化配置的可执行方案。主要得出以下结论：1、青海湖流域人均水资源量18248.55m3，2008年生产生活的用水总量是7936.76万m3，其中生产用水6322.39万m3，占79.66 %；生活用水1444.49万m3，占20.34%。2、2020年和2030年流域的生产生活需水总量分别是1.24亿m3、1.67亿m3，其中灌溉需水分别是8101.22万m3、7291.10 万m3。刚察的农业灌溉需水和天峻的生产需水（主要是工业）在需水总量中占较大比重。 3、地表径流满足青海湖和河流的生态需水量后，可开发利用的地表径流量是0.83亿m3，地下水资源量是3.03亿m3，可利用水资源总量为3.86亿m3。4、流域内各行政区的水资源承载力由大到小依次为：天峻、海晏、共和、刚察。影响水资源承载力的因子主要有人口密度、万元GDP用水量、灌溉面积和开发利用率等。5、近46年平均气候条件下，如果当刚察、共和的灌溉面积比2008年分别减少1000公顷、500公顷，渠系水利用系数增加至0.55，海晏增加至0.50，同时天峻的工业产值增长率保持在9%左右时，2030年前地表入湖径流量将满足青海湖生态需水量。

In the past few decades, the eco-environment of Qinghai Lake deteriorates seriously. The contradiction between social economy and ecological water requirement is prominent increasingly. So research of the carrying capacity and optimized allocation of water resources has significance reference value to ease the lake water reducing, protect the ecological environment and ensure the steady development of the social economy. Using the hydrology, economic and other data of Qinghai Lake basin, combining with on-the-spot investigation and research of the main farm, this paper analyzed the relationship and contradiction between water supply and demand In 2008, 2020, 2030, and evaluated the carrying capacity of each division using principal component analysis method, and discussed the executable scheme optimization allocation by system dynamics model. The results are as follows: 1. The amount of the water resource occupation per person in Qinghai Lake basin is 18248.55m3. In 2008, the total water consumption is 7936.76×104m3, 79.66 % of it is production consumption, 6322.39×104m3, and 20.34% is life consumption, 1444.49×104m3.2. Water requirement of the life and production will increase to 1.24×108 m3 in 2020 and 1.67×108 m3 in 2030, including irrigation water 8101.22×104 m3 and 7291.10×104 m3 respectively. The water requirements of Gangcha agricultural irrigation and Tianjun production (industry mainly) account for a large proportion of the total water demand. 3. Available water resource is only 3.86×108 m3 after ensure the ecological water requirement of lake and river, 0.836×108 m3 of them from the surface water resources. 4. The carrying capacity of water resource in descending order is Tianjun, Haiyan, Gonghe and Gangcha. The main factors influencing water carrying capacity are GDP water consumption, irrigation area, the utilization rate, etc.5. When Gangcha and Gonghe irrigation areas are reduced 1000 and 500 hectares respectively, while the water efficiency in canal system increase to 0.55, the surface runoff into the Qinghai Lake will meet the lake eecological water if Tianjun’s industrial maintain increase at rate less than 9%.