我国是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一，灾害种类多，分布地域广，发生频率高，造成损失重。自然灾害的发生会直接对实体经济造成损坏，经金融工具的传导和市场情绪的渲染后，还会对经济的平稳增长造成不利影响，甚至引发系统性的金融风险。因此，近来各国央行陆续将自然灾害风险纳入现有金融管理体系中。我国金融领域以间接融资为主，商业银行在金融体系中占有极为重要的地位，其中农村商业银行作为服务“三农”领域和小微企业的主力军，是保障乡村振兴的动力来源。因此研究自然灾害对农村商业银行绩效水平的影响具有重要意义。 根据我国监管要求，农村商业银行的服务对象主要是农民和小微企业，展业范围集中在所在地县域内。农业的投入产出率对自然条件有着很高的敏感性，自然灾害发生后，农作物的减产会导致农民的资产受损，信用水平下降；小微企业的资金水平一般较低，因而在面对自然灾害冲击时韧性较差，易出现资金链断裂甚至破产的情况。农业和小微企业的风险会通过信贷产品传导至农村商业银行，使得农村商业银行绩效水平下降。此外，由于农村商业银行展业范围较小，可能会出现展业全境受灾的情况，此时由于其资本金水平有限，自然灾害冲击难以得到缓释，绩效水平变化更趋显著。 为验证上述理论推测和假说，本文收集整理2017-2021年各省份共计137家农村商业银行的数据，用资产收益率代表盈利水平，用不良贷款率代表风控水平，以熵权法构建的省级自然灾害指数为解释变量，使用固定效应模型进行了回归分析。回归结果显示，自然灾害对农村商业银行的盈利水平有着显著的负面作用，且会造成不良贷款率显著提高。上述结果通过了改变自变量构建方法、延长时间窗口等多种形式的稳健性检验。在异质性检验部分，本文将我国大陆地区31个省份划分为东中西部，分组进行回归，结果显示中部地区农村商业银行受到了自然灾害冲击的显著影响，而东部地区和西部地区则没有受到显著影响。本文推测这是由于不同地区的耕地面积存在差异，因此自然灾害对农业的造成的损失不同，进而导致农村商业银行受到的影响存在异质性。在进一步扩展研究部分，本文探究了新冠疫情对农村商业银行绩效水平的影响，发现新冠疫情只对其盈利水平造成了影响，而对其风控水平无显著作用。本文认为这是由于新冠疫情仅使得农村商业银行的客户短期内无法投入生产，而未如自然灾害一般直接对其造成资产损失。 综上所述，本文立足银行视角，发现了自然灾害对农村商业银行绩效水平具有显著的负面影响，在一定程度上为农村商业银行灾后的绩效管理提供了方向。

China is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world. They are many kinds, wide geographical distribution, high frequency and heavy loss. The occurrence of natural disasters will directly cause damage to the real economy. After the transmission of financial instruments and the exaggeration of market sentiment, natural disasters will have an adverse impact on the steady growth of the economy and even lead to systemic financial risks. Therefore, central banks have recently incorporated the risk of natural disasters into their existing financial management systems. In the financial field of China, indirect financing is mainly used, and commercial banks occupy an important position in the financial system. Among them, rural commercial banks, as the main force serving "agriculture, rural areas" and small and micro enterprises, are the power source of safeguarding rural revitalization. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of natural disasters on the performance level of rural commercial banks. According to the regulatory requirements of our country, the service objects of rural commercial banks are mainly farmers and small micro enterprises, the scope of exhibition is concentrated in the local county area. Agricultural input and output rate is highly sensitive to natural conditions. After the occurrence of natural disasters, crop reduction will lead to the damage of farmers' assets and the decline of credit level. Small and micro enterprises generally have a low level of capital, so they have poor resilience when facing the impact of natural disasters, and are prone to break the capital chain or even bankruptcy. Risks of agriculture and small and micro enterprises will be transmitted to rural commercial banks through credit products, which will reduce the performance of rural commercial banks. In addition, due to the small scope of the exhibition business of rural commercial banks, the whole exhibition industry may be affected. At this time, due to the limited capital level, it is difficult to relieve the impact of natural disasters, and the performance level changes more significantly. In order to verify the above theoretical speculation and hypothesis, this paper collected and collated the data of 137 rural commercial banks in various provinces from 2017 to 2021. The return on assets was used to represent the profitability level, the non-performing loan ratio was used to represent the risk control level, and the provincial natural disaster index constructed by entropy weight method was used as explanatory variable to conduct regression analysis using the fixed effect model. The regression results show that natural disasters have a significant negative effect on the profitability of rural commercial banks, and will cause a significant increase in the non-performing loan ratio. The results above pass the robustness test of various forms, such as changing the construction method of the argument variable and extending the time window. In the part of heterogeneity test, the 31 provinces in mainland China were divided into east, middle and western regions, and the regression results showed that the rural commercial banks in the central region were significantly affected by natural disasters, while the eastern and western regions were not significantly affected. This paper speculated that this was due to the difference of cultivated land area in different regions, so natural disasters caused different losses to agriculture, which led to the heterogeneity of impacts on rural commercial banks. In the further expanded research section, this paper explores the impact of COVID-19 on the performance of rural commercial banks, and finds that COVID-19 only affects their profitability, but has no significant effect on their risk control. This paper believes that this is because the COVID-19 pandemic only makes rural commercial banks' customers unable to put into production in the short term, rather than directly causing asset losses like natural disasters. In summary, from the perspective of banks, this paper finds that natural disasters have a significant negative impact on the performance of rural commercial banks, and to a certain extent, it provides a direction for the post-disaster performance management of rural commercial banks.