人口流动是推动产业结构变动的主要因素之一。以往的研究比较重视产业发展对人口流动的拉动作用，特别是中国东南沿海的发展变化带动农村剩余劳动力转移的成效吸引了多数学者的注意。但作为最活跃的经济主体，流动人口对地区产业结构的影响越来越显著，从而引起了产业结构的全局性变化。尤其是新生代农民工与老一代农民相比体现出的不同特征，已开始促使沿海产业向中西部地区转移。正如大家已经看到的那样，富士康等企业被动做出了搬迁的选择。目前还很少有文献专题研究新生代农民工特点对西部产业结构变动的作用。　　　在人口流动与产业结构的互动关系理论中，马克思、恩格斯从工业发展角度论述了两者之间存在互动关系：工业发展导致了人口的“全面流动”；人口流动又成为工业发展的“推进器”和“加速器”。刘易斯从两部门的视角指出，发展中国家的农业人口向城镇转移为工业部门提供了无限劳动力供给保障。新经济地理学从成本的角度上解释了资本、劳动力等要素如何进行跨区域的选择从而形成地区产业发展。产业集聚理论解释了集聚效应与拥挤成本之间的相互作用决定了产业、人口的集中与扩散。但上述理论局限于农村劳动力向工业部门的转移及其对工业发展产生影响的单向过程，或者区际生产要素的流动与产业发展的互动关系，没有具体分析人口流动对产业结构变动的拉动作用。国内学者王桂新从劳动力供给的角度阐述了人口迁移对东部地区产业结构调整的作用，李晓琼进一步研究了作为人口迁移作为“生产者”和“消费者”引起产业结构调整的实现路径。但上述研究都以东部沿海地区为研究对象，没有涉及本世纪10年来东西部产业转移与新生代农民工成长等新情况。　　　新生代农民工影响地区产业发展的现象屡被关注，但均停留在经验观察、案例描述层面。本文将进一步采用实证研究的方法说明这一问题，旨在通过分析流动人口作为“生产者”和“消费者”的两种属性，揭示新生代农民工引起地区产业结构变动的实现途径。一是用偏离-份额分析法揭示本世纪以来（2001年~2010年）的十年间全国各地区产业结构变动情况及其与人口流动的相关性。二是用实证研究方法论证作为“生产者”的新生代农民工对资源配置和就业结构的影响，通过逻辑推导说明其通过影响地区劳动力资源配置状况从而改变地区三次产业间的比例关系。三是量化研究方法分析新生代农民工对地区消费结构的影响，通过逻辑推导说明人口流动引导地区收入水平、消费结构发生变化，从而引导地区产业结构变动。　　　本研究认为，新生代农民工进入劳动力市场后，我国产业结构在2001年至2010年十年间出现了明显变动，第一产业劳动力份额大幅下降，二、三产业显著上升。各地区所处的工业化发展阶段阶段：直辖市、东部地区依然保持优势，但西南地区的二、三产业劳动力转移速度远远快于其他地区，表明这一地区的产业结构优化升级快于其他地区，传动的阶梯状分布的产业结构趋于均衡。在自然条件、资源禀赋相对既定的情况下，要素在地区间的转移是造成这种变化的主要原因，特别是劳动力要素的转移会直接推动产业结构变化。因此，以新生代农民工为特征的劳动力要素是推动现阶段产业结构变化的主要因素之一。　　　从劳动力供给的角度，新生代农民工作为“生产者”会引导地区间劳动力资源重新配置，具体效应体现在就业人口的人力资本形成及配置这两方面。从人力资本形成上看，西南地区新生代“生产者”的人力资本水平高于地区人力资本水平。因而不论当地就业岗位是否增加，都会对地区劳动力产生挤出效应，迫使本地劳动力追加人力资本投资，结果带动地区整体人力资本水平提高。从人力资本存量上看，2001年~2010年西南地区新生代“生产者”人力资本存量结构显示出第二、第三产业份额大幅增加的态势。这种变化带动生产要素的集聚和置换，具有引导产业间资源转移的作用。从人力资本配置上看，新生代“生产者”对地区就业结构具有优化作用，第二产业结构偏差幅度低于地区的产业结构偏差幅度；在第三产业上缓解了迁入地劳动力紧缺的状况。　　　从劳动力需求的角度，新生代农民工作为“消费者”的人口迁移活动有助于迁入地人均收入水平提高。人口迁移数量、迁移率与迁入地的城乡居民人均收入水平提高呈现出高度正相关，与城镇的相关系数均超过0.9，与农村的相关系数均超过0.7。其中，与农村的相关系数呈现出不断下降的趋势，显示出人力资本流失对迁出地具有负面效应。同时，随着人口迁移数量、迁移率的增加，城乡恩格尔系数呈现出长期不断下降的趋势，但物价等因素的波动会对二者相关性产生较强的干扰。新生代农民工对城乡居民消费结构的影响主要体现在优化和示范作用上。　　　基于上述结论，本文建议：一、创造均衡迁移的条件，通过市场配置劳动力要素，重视人力资本水平、人力资本配置对产业结构变动的作用。二、将新生代农民工转移就业与当前的城镇化建设进一步结合，采取更为灵活的政策，加大力度扶持城市非正式部门的发展。三是构建新生代农民工迁移所必须的制度和政策保障，为其融入城市提供基础性服务。

The floating population is one of the main factors to promote the change of industrial structure. Many previous researches have payed more attention to the industry development pulling effect on population transfer, especially the huge rural surplus labor force were promoted to transfer into manufacturing workers since the development of the southeast coast of China,which has attracted by most domestic scholars. While there is something new has happened. As the human migration become so active that accelerate the upgrading of regional industrial structure , which resulting in the overall industrial structure changes. Especially the different characteristics of the new generation of migrant workers compared with the old, has begun to stimulate the coastal industrial move to the central or the Western regions. As we have seen, Foxconn and other enterprises have to make relocation choice years ago. Few pay attention to the function on the change of industrial structure by the new generation of migrant workers .　　　The change of industrial structure is led by human, and the new generation of migrant workers take more and more effect on industrial structure. We can even say they determine the updating of the industrial structure in some region. Many international and domestic theories about the relationship between human flow and industrial structure could be listed: Karl Marx, Engels hold that industrial development has resulted in a "full flow" of population; floating population has become the "propeller" and "accelerator" of industrial development. Lewis argued from a two sectors of the national economy perspective that the agricultural population flowing to cities or towns provide unlimited labor supply for the industrial sector. Viewing from the cost the new economic geography give a explanation how capital, labor and other factors to make a interregional choice. The theory of industrial agglomeration offers that the the interaction effect of agglomeration and congestion cost would decide the industry and people will concentrate or diffuse. But mostly of the theories above focus an one-way process of rural labor transfer to the industrial sector and its impact on industrial development, while pay little attention to the pulling effect of population flow on industrial layout changes. The domestic scholar Wang Guixin from the perspective of the supply of labor force in the updating of industrial structure in the southeast coastal areas by population migration, Li Xiaoqiong further study of the route of how the the population migration as “producer” and “consumer” cause the industrial structure adjustment. But all the domestic studies have take the the southeast coastal area as the research object, and does not involve the new situation that the new generation of migrant workers has grew and many eastern factories have relocated into the west arear or the midland in 10 years in this century.　　　This paper aims at realization route of change of industrial structure caused by the new generation of farmer’migration. Firstly it reckon the correlation with the empirical method of national regional industrial structure change and the characteristics of the new generation of migrant farmers since 2001 to 2010. Secondly it is argued that the new generation of migrant workers as a “producer” effect on resource allocation and employment structure. Thirdly it analyze the impact of the new generation of migrant workers as a “consumer” to regional consumption structure by qualitative research methods, to show that the young flow guide area structure of consumption changes, so as to guide regional industrial structure change.　　　The result indicates that, from 2001 to 2010, the regional industrial change reflects the substantial decrease of workforce’s share of primary industry, and significantly increased of the secondary or tertiary industry. Different stage of industrialization in varied areas: Municipalities directly under the central government and the southeast coastal areas remains advantage, while workforce’s share of the secondary and tertiary industry in southwest areas go up above the other areas, so ,it indicates the upgrading of the industrial structure of this area is faster than others. Manufacturing industry is undergoing a shift from east to west, forcing the rural surplus labor transferred to the tertiary industry first. A lot of factors contribute to this change of industrial structure in the southwest, the migration of the new generated farmers is a major one.　　　In term of labor supply, it studies the action on structure change with the new generation of migrant workers as “producer” guide the regional labor resources to reconfigure, this disposition effect embody in two aspects of the industry human capital formation and workforce configuration .In term of demand, the affect of the new generation of migrant workers as “consumers” on industrial structure is realized through the change of regional consumption demand structure. The young contributes to the level of per capita income to increase, and has optimization effect on city residents' consumption structure, demonstration effect on consumption structure of rural residents.