本文以我国受台风影响最为严重的省份之一浙江省为研究区，以县级行政区为研究单元，基于历史台风灾害灾情和和社会经济数据，将敏感性、适应性指标法与基于历史灾情的脆弱性曲线法结合构建区域脆弱性定量评估模型，探索了定性评价与定量评价相结合的脆弱性评价方法。分别以人口与经济系统为研究对象，构建现状与未来情景（SSPs路径下2030年、2050年）的脆弱性曲线，并基于历史（2005年-2019年）脆弱性时空分布特征，对人口与经济脆弱性演变规律进行分析和总结。主要结论如下：

（1）利用丰富的社会经济指标构建台风灾害人口与经济的敏感性、适应性指标体系能够对区域的人口与经济脆弱性特征进行详实评价并对其演变趋势进行多维分析。依托于敏感性及适应性构建的区域脆弱性指数是区域社会经济因素的综合描述，能够有效描述区域脆弱性差异。

（4）未来SSPs路径下，浙江省人口与经济脆弱性变化规律与历史相似：2050年的人口脆弱性指数相较于2030年有明显上升，经济脆弱性指数相较于2030年有明显下降，浙江南部脆弱性指数仍略高于北部。SSP1路径人口脆弱性上升最明显，SSP3路径经济脆弱性下降最明显。未来SSPs路径强致灾水平下，出现两大严重受灾区域，人口受灾与经济损失分布重合率较高，分别是以衢州市区为中心环状分布区域和沿洞宫山脉、括苍山脉、天台山脉的带状分布区域，这些区域需要重点加强基础设施建设，提升社会发展水平，合理布防，提升人口和经济适应性。

The northwestern Pacific Ocean is the sea area which creates the most tropical cyclones in the world. The long-term hurricanes, torrential rains and storm surges brought by tropical cyclones continue to threaten the life and property safety of residents in China's coastal areas. In-depth study and estimation of population and economic vulnerability is a key step to reduce casualties and loss of typhoon disasters. However, at present, there are few studies on the quantitative assessment of typhoon’s regional vulnerability, and the methods are relatively single, which cannot promote the forecast of typhoon loss.  Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate population and economic vulnerability quantificationally and explore more reasonable methods, which is of great significance for typhoon disaster loss prediction and improving the level of emergency response and disaster reduction in China.

This article takes Zhejiang province as the research area which is one of China’s most serious provinces affected by the typhoon and chooses county-level administrative region as the research unit. Based on historical typhoon disasters and socioeconomic data, this paper combines the sensitivity and adaptability indexes with vulnerability curve methods to construct the quantitative assessment model of regional vulnerability and tries to find the method of integrating qualitative assessments with quantitative assessments. Taking population and economic system as research objects, the vulnerability curves of the current situation and future scenarios (2030 and 2050 under SSPs path) are constructed, and the evolution laws of population and economic vulnerability are analyzed and summarized based on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of vulnerability in history (2005-2019).  The main conclusions are as follows:  

(1) Using abundant socio-economic indicators, the index systems of  sensitivity and adaptability in typhoon disaster can make detailed evaluation of regional population and economic vulnerability characteristics and multi-dimensional analysis of its evolution trend. Based on sensitivity and adaptability, The index of regional vulnerability is a comprehensive description of regional socioeconomic factors, which can effectively tell regional vulnerability differences.

(2) The quantitative assessment model of typhoon’s regional vulnerability retains the authenticity advantage of building vulnerability curves based on loss data, while adding socioeconomic factors represented by regional vulnerability indices. This model not only makes up for the inadequacy of dimensionless evaluation of vulnerability by the qualitative comprehensive index method, which makes it difficult to establish a direct relationship with typhoon intensity, but also improves the quantitative disaster loss fitting vulnerability curve due to the high uncertainty of loss data.

(3) The changes of population vulnerability and economic vulnerability in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2019 were not consistent: population vulnerability showed a slowly increasing trend, and the vulnerability index of population in southwest China was higher, while that in northeast China was lower. The economic vulnerability is greatly reduced and the higher part are evolving from south to east. In extreme cases (typhoon wind speed and rain intensity are more than once in 100 years), the cities with high population disaster rate include Qingtian County, Jinyun County, Qingyuan County and Jingning County of Lishui city; Ruian City and Yueqing City of Wenzhou city; Shengsi County of Zhoushan City and Xianju County of Taizhou City. The cities with high direct economic loss rate include urban area of Hangzhou, urban area of Shaoxing city, Taishun county and Ruian city of Wenzhou city, Daishan county of Zhoushan city.

(4) Under the future SSPs path, the change pattern of population and economic vulnerability in Zhejiang province is similar to that in history: population vulnerability in 2050 is significantly higher than that in 2030, while economic vulnerability is significantly lower than that in 2030.  The population vulnerability of SSP1 path is higher than that of SSP1 and SSP2 on the whole, while the economic vulnerability of SSP3 path is lower than that of SSP1 and SSP2 on the whole.  Level of future SSPs path and two serious disaster area, the affected population and economic loss distribution coincidence rate is higher, respectively in quzhou city as the center ring distribution areas and along the hole palace mountain, sun pulse, the zonal distribution of tiantai mountains area, these areas are important to strengthen infrastructure construction, enhance the level of social development, the reasonable protection,  Improve demographic and economic adaptability.