世界各国政治进程的演变是高度复杂的。尽管已经作出了许多努力，但刻画世界各国政治不稳定的时空演变特征仍然十分困难。为了对于政治不稳定进行更加深入的研究，本次研究首先梳理了国内外关于政治不稳定的相关研究，对于已有的理论基础进行总结。随后，利用海量新闻媒体数据，选取信息论的方法对于全球各国2000年1月至2021年12月的政治不稳定程度进行定量计算，从而进行世界政治热点的识别、国家政治不稳定特征的刻画以及量化方法的验证。在此基础上对于世界各国政治不稳定的类型进行划分，并探究不同类型政治不稳定的特征。最后，基于现有数据，结合新闻语料数据，对于国家政治不稳定进行预测。

研究进展方面，当前国内外学者对于政治不稳定的研究各有侧重。国外的研究侧重于解析政治不稳定的形成因素进而量化政治不稳定。一些研究使用了单一变量量化政治不稳定，包括主观变量，如高管调查，以及客观变量，如政府危机、政权持久性等。也有一些研究基于多变量量化政治不稳定，包括国际国家风险评价指南(ICRG)制定的政治风险评级和世界银行制定的政治稳定和无暴力指数等。国内的研究则从“政治稳定”入手，聚焦政治稳定的层次、类型及过程性研究。

基于信息论方法，本次研究利用海量新闻媒体数据表征世界各国的政治行为，选取信息论方法量化不同国家间事件结构的差异，从而得出世界各国政治不稳定量化结果。在此基础上，针对某一个时间节点，如某个月，我们可以得出世界政治热点的分布情况，从而更直观的把握全球政治不稳定态势。针对单一国家，我们可以得出其在所给时间范围内的政治不稳定曲线，进而得出单一国家的政治不稳定演化特征。与世界银行制定的政治稳定与无暴力指数及ICRG制定的政治风险评级指数进行比较，基于信息论的政治不稳定度量方法具有更精确的时间精度，并且将一国政治经济方方面面的变量都纳入评价体系，从而能够更加精确、动态的监测政治不稳定。

在对各国政治不稳定程度进行评估的基础上，基于各国政治不稳定的均值、方差、高强度政治不稳定持续时间，对于世界各国政治不稳定进行分类。可以得出四种政治不稳定类型，包括了持续不稳定国家、强间歇性不稳定国家、弱间歇性不稳定国家和政治稳定国家。持续不稳定国家的政治不稳定程度高，持续性强。强间歇性不稳定国家的政治不稳定程度比持续不稳定国家稍弱，但是间歇性强，呈现出明显的阶段性特征。相比于强间歇性不稳定国家，弱间歇性不稳定国家的政治不稳定程度与波动性都更低。政治稳定国家的政治不稳定水平低且波动弱。

针对典型政治不稳定国家伊拉克的国家政治不稳定预测表明，随着美国从伊拉克的撤军，以及苏莱曼尼事件影响随时间的减弱，未来伊拉克政治不稳定程度总体下降。新冠疫情以及选举相关的抗议、暗杀成为未来一段时间内影响伊拉克政治状态的重要因素。但相比于军事因素，其对于政治状态的影响相对有限。

本文对于世界各国的政治不稳定进行了定量计算，并在此基础上进行了类型划分、特征探究、预测等工作。政治不稳定的数据当中蕴含着许多信息，战争、袭击、外交危机、经济制裁等等因素都被涵盖在内，其中丰富的政治学信息值得进行进一步研究，以促进经济不平等、移民、气候变化等与政治不稳定耦合的相关研究。

The evolution of political processes around the world is highly complex. Despite many efforts, it remains difficult to characterize the temporal and spatial evolution of political instability around the world. In order to conduct a more in-depth study of political instability, this study firstly sorted out relevant research on political instability at home and abroad, and summarized the existing theoretical basis. Then, using massive news media data and information theory methods to quantitatively calculate the degree of political instability around the world from January 2000 to December 2021, so as to identify world political hotspots, describe the characteristics of national political instability, and validate the quantification method. On this basis, it divides the types of political instability around the world, and explores the characteristics of different types of political instability. Finally, based on the existing data, combined with the original news media data, it is possible to predict the political instability of the countries.

In terms of research progress, scholars at home and abroad have different focuses on the research on political instability. Foreign research focuses on analyzing the formation factors of political instability and then quantifying political instability. Several studies have used a single variable to quantify political instability, including subjective variables, such as executive surveys, and objective variables, such as government crisis, regime persistence, etc. There are also studies that quantify political instability based on multiple variables, including the political risk rating developed by International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and the political stability and absence of violence developed by the World Bank. Domestic research starts with political stability, focusing on the level, type and process of political stability.

Based on the method of information theory, this research uses massive news media data to characterize the political behavior of countries around the world, and then selects the method of information theory to quantify the differences in event structure between different countries, so as to obtain the quantitative results of political instability in countries around the world. On this basis, for a certain time node, such as a certain month, we can obtain the distribution of world political hotspots, so as to grasp the global political instability situation more intuitively. For a single country, we can obtain its political instability curve within the given time range, and then obtain the evolutionary characteristics of political instability in a single country. Compared with the political risk rating developed by ICRG and the political stability and absence of violence developed by the World Bank, the political instability measurement method based on information theory has more precise time precision, and a large number of variables related to a country's political economy are included in the calculation. Therefore, this method enables more precise and dynamic monitoring of political instability.

On the basis of evaluating the degree of political instability for each country, the political instability in the world is classified based on the mean value, variance, and duration of high-intensity political instability for the countries around the world. Four types of political instability can be drawn, including persistently unstable countries, strongly intermittently unstable countries, weakly intermittently unstable countries, and stable countries. Political instability in persistently unstable countries is high and persistent. The degree of political instability of countries with strong intermittent instability is slightly weaker than that of countries with persistent instability, but it is more intermittent, showing obvious periodic characteristics. Compared to countries with strong intermittent instability, countries with weak intermittent instability are less politically unstable and less volatile.

The political instability forecast for Iraq, a typical politically unstable country, shows that the degree of political instability in Iraq will generally decrease in the future as the US withdraws from Iraq and the impact of the Soleimani incident diminishes over time. The new crown epidemic and election-related protests and assassinations have become new factors that will affect the political state of Iraq for some time to come. But compared with military factors, its influence on the political status is relatively limited.

This research quantitatively calculates the political instability of various countries in the world, and conducts work such as classification, characteristic exploration, and prediction. Political instability data contains a lot of information, covering factors such as wars, attacks, diplomatic crises, economic sanctions, and more. The wealth of political science information is worth further studying to advance research related to political instability, such as economic inequality, immigration, and climate change, etc.