气候变化对生态水文过程的影响存在时空差异，同时受到人类活动的深刻影响。 本研究以我国华北地区为研究区域，同时以呼伦湖流域为重点研究流域，多尺度产水量变化及影响因素展开相关工作， 探索过去区域水资源量空间格局变化规律，探索土地利用、气候变化、植被生长等因素对研究区域水资源变化的影响，并基于上述结论分析未来气候变化情境下流域水资源变化的不确定性，模拟预测未来流域水资源时空变化，为区域发展和流域水资源保护建设提供理论支撑。

结果表明， 基于 Budyko 假说构建的产水量估算框架在像元尺度和大流域上的性能都是可靠的。华北地区的年产水量为 7.61±2.67 * 1010 m3/a，年均产水量为 49.51±17.49 mm。平均产水量变化的空间格局具有高度的异质性； 46%的研究区域以增加趋势为主， 9.84%统计学上呈显著增加趋势(P < 0.05)。与温度相比， 产水量对降水变化更为敏感。敏感性系数(Swyp)的变化结果表明，草地和灌木更有利于华北地区的水安全，而造林则能保护区域环境免受极端降雨事件的影响。

在呼伦湖流域研究上， 过去 60 年呼伦湖呈现了湖泊萎缩、浮游生物生物量下降的趋势， 地表径流在湖水资源补充和水生态调节发挥了重要的作用， 整个流域气候变化空间异质性明显。与海拉尔河相比，克鲁伦河、乌尔逊河面临更高的暖干化带来的风险。基于湖泊水量平衡理论和突变检验，呼伦湖水资源量在 2005 年前后出现突变点，呈显著下降趋势，结合湖面降雨、蒸散发和地表径流情况，乌尔逊河和克鲁伦河径流量的下降，是湖泊面积下降的主要原因。 1981-2010 年呼伦湖流域大部分地区产水量呈下降趋势，流域北部和东部地区产水量变化较大，且明显受到降雨控制。基于情景模拟，气候变化（以 2006~2010 年为例）主要表现为降低了呼伦湖流域大部分地区产水量，大部分地区产水量降低范围在 0~50 mm/a。下垫面变化对产水量主要表现为促进作用，这一作用在流域中部和我国境内更为明显。 未来不同情境下呼伦湖流域产水量都呈下降趋势。未来产水量较多的主要集中在海拉尔河流域东北侧、克鲁伦河上游肯特山南麓地区， 这些区域在未来将对呼伦湖水资源保护发挥重要作用。

The impact of climate change on the ecological hydrological process is spatio-temporal and affected by human activities. This study takes North China and the Hulun Lake basin as the key research area, carrying out on the multi-scale water yield change and impact factors, exploring the spatial pattern variation of regional water resources in the past. This study also explores the impact of land use, climate change, vegetation growth and other factors on the variation of water resources in the research area. We analyses the uncertainty of water resources change in the basin in the context of climate change, and the spatial and temporal variation of water resources in the basin is simulated and predicted, providing theoretical support for regional development and water resources protection and construction in the basin.

The results show that the performance of the water yield estimation framework based on the Budyko hypothesis is reliable at pixel scale and large watershed. The annual water yield in North China is 7.61 ± 2.67 * 1010 m3/a, and the annual water yield is 49.51 ± 17.49 mm. The spatial pattern of average water yield change is highly heterogeneous, 46% of the study areas showed an increasing trend, while 9.84% showed a statistically significant increase trend (P<0.05). Compare with temperature, water yield is more sensitive to precipitation. The change of sensitivity coefficient (Swyp) shows that grassland and shrub are more conducive to water security in North China, while afforestation can protect the regional environment from the impact of extreme rainfall events.

Hulun Lake has shown a trend of lake shrinkage and plankton biomass decline in the past 60 years. Runoff has played an important role in lake water resources supplements and water ecological regulation. Compare with the Hailar River, the Krulun River and the Urson River are facing higher risks of warming and drying. Based on the theory of lake water balance and mutation test, the water resources of Hulun Lake appeared a mutation point around 2005, showing a significant downward trend. Combined with the rainfall, evapotranspiration and surface runoff on the lake surface, the decline of the runoff of the Ulsen River and the Krulun River is the main reason for the decline of the lake area. From 1981 to 2010, the water yield in most areas of the Hulun Lake basin showed a downward trend. The water yield in the northern and eastern areas of the basin changed greatly and was obviously controlled by rainfall. Based on scenario simulation, climate change (taking 2006-2010 as an example) mainly prompted the reduction of water yield in most areas of the Hulun Lake basin, and the reduction range of water yield in most areas among 0~50 mm/a. The change of underlying surface is mainly beneficial to the water yield, which is more obvious in the middle of the basin and in China. In the future, the water yield of Hulun Lake basin will decline under all scenarios. The areas with more water production will be mainly concentrated in the northeast of Hailar River basin and the southern foot of Kent Mountain in the upper reaches of the Kruren River. These areas will play an important role in the protection for Hulun Lake water resources in the future.